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Training LLMs in distributed environments presents significant challenges due to the complexity of model execution, deployment systems, and the vast space of configurable strategies. Although various optimization techniques exist, achieving high efficiency in practice remains difficult. Accurate performance models that effectively characterize and predict a model’s behavior are essential for guiding optimization efforts and system-level studies. We propose Lumos, a trace-driven performance modeling and estimation toolkit for large-scale LLM training, designed to accurately capture and predict the execution behaviors of modern LLMs. We evaluate Lumos on a production ML cluster with up to 512 NVIDIA H100 GPUs using various GPT-3 variants, demonstrating that it can replay execution time with an average error of just 3.3%, along with other runtime details, across different models and configurations. Additionally, we validate its ability to estimate performance for new setups from existing traces, facilitating efficient exploration of model and deployment configurations. 

The rapid increase in computing demand and corresponding energy consumption have focused attention on computing's impact on the climate and sustainability. Prior work proposes metrics that quantify computing's carbon footprint across several lifecycle phases, including its supply chain, operation, and end-of-life. Industry uses these metrics to optimize the carbon footprint of manufacturing hardware and running computing applications. Unfortunately, prior work on optimizing datacenters' carbon footprint often succumbs to the sunk cost fallacy by considering embodied carbon emissions (a sunk cost) when making operational decisions (i.e., job scheduling and placement), which leads to operational decisions that do not always reduce the total carbon footprint. In this paper, we evaluate carbon-aware job scheduling and placement on a given set of servers for several carbon accounting metrics. Our analysis reveals state-of-the-art carbon accounting metrics that include embodied carbon emissions when making operational decisions can increase the total carbon footprint of executing a set of jobs. We study the factors that affect the added carbon cost of such suboptimal decision-making. We then use a real-world case study from a datacenter to demonstrate how the sunk carbon fallacy manifests itself in practice. Finally, we discuss the implications of our findings in better guiding effective carbon-aware scheduling in on-premise and cloud datacenters.