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Matrix completion tackles the task of predicting missing values in a low-rank matrix based on a sparse set of observed entries. It is often assumed that the observation pattern is generated uniformly at random or has a very specific structure tuned to a given algorithm. There is still a gap in our understanding when it comes to arbitrary sampling patterns. Given an arbitrary sampling pattern, we introduce a matrix completion algorithm based on network flows in the bipartite graph induced by the observation pattern. For additive matrices, we show that the electrical flow is optimal, and we establish error upper bounds customized to each entry as a function of the observation set, along with matching minimax lower bounds. Our results show that the minimax squared error for recovery of a particular entry in the matrix is proportional to the effective resistance of the corresponding edge in the graph. Furthermore, we show that the electrical flow estimator is equivalent to the least squares estimator. We apply our estimator to the two-way fixed effects model and show that it enables us to accurately infer individual causal effects and the unit-specific and time-specific confounders. For rank-1 matrices, we use edge-disjoint paths to form an estimator that achieves minimax optimal estimation when the sampling is sufficiently dense. Our discovery introduces a new family of estimators parametrized by network flows, which provide a fine-grained and intuitive understanding of the impact of the given sampling pattern on the difficulty of estimation at an entry-specific level. This graph-based approach allows us to quantify the inherent complexity of matrix completion for individual entries, rather than relying solely on global measures of performance. 

We devise an online learning algorithm -- titled Switching via Monotone Adapted Regret Traces (SMART) -- that adapts to the data and achieves regret that is instance optimal, i.e., simultaneously competitive on every input sequence compared to the performance of the follow-the-leader (FTL) policy and the worst case guarantee of any other input policy. We show that the regret of the SMART policy on any input sequence is within a multiplicative factor e/(e−1)≈1.58 of the smaller of: 1) the regret obtained by FTL on the sequence, and 2) the upper bound on regret guaranteed by the given worst-case policy. This implies a strictly stronger guarantee than typical `best-of-both-worlds' bounds as the guarantee holds for every input sequence regardless of how it is generated. SMART is simple to implement as it begins by playing FTL and switches at most once during the time horizon to the worst-case algorithm. Our approach and results follow from an operational reduction of instance optimal online learning to competitive analysis for the ski-rental problem. We complement our competitive ratio upper bounds with a fundamental lower bound showing that over all input sequences, no algorithm can get better than a 1.43-fraction of the minimum regret achieved by FTL and the minimax-optimal policy. We also present a modification of SMART that combines FTL with a ``small-loss" algorithm to achieve instance optimality between the regret of FTL and the small loss regret bound.