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Title: Arctic warming and your weather: public belief in the connection: ARCTIC WARMING AND YOUR WEATHER
Award ID(s):
1239783
NSF-PAR ID:
10027613
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
International Journal of Climatology
Volume:
34
Issue:
5
ISSN:
0899-8418
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1723 to 1728
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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  1. Abstract

    Understanding the response of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation to climatic change remains a key challenge. Specifically, changes in the equator‐to‐pole temperature difference have been suggested to affect the midlatitudes, potentially leading to more persistent extreme weather, but a scientific consensus has not been established so far. Here we quantify summer weather persistence by applying a tracking algorithm to lower tropospheric vorticity and temperature fields to analyze changes in their propagation speeds. We find significant links between slower propagating weather systems and a weaker equator‐to‐pole temperature difference in observations and models. By end of the century, the propagation of temperature anomalies over midlatitude land is projected to decrease by −3%, regionally strongest in southern North America (−45%) under a high emission scenario (CMIP5 RCP8.5). Even higher decreases are found (−10%, −58%) in models which project a decreasing equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Our findings provide evidence that hot summer weather might become longer‐lasting, bearing the risk of more persistent heat extremes.

     
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