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Title: What Can We Learn from Predictive Modeling?
The large majority of inferences drawn in empirical political research follow from model-based associations (e.g., regression). Here, we articulate the benefits of predictive modeling as a complement to this approach. Predictive models aim to specify a probabilistic model that provides a good fit to testing data that were not used to estimate the model’s parameters. Our goals are threefold. First, we review the central benefits of this under-utilized approach from a perspective uncommon in the existing literature: we focus on how predictive modeling can be used to complement and augment standard associational analyses. Second, we advance the state of the literature by laying out a simple set of benchmark predictive criteria. Third, we illustrate our approach through a detailed application to the prediction of interstate conflict.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1637089
PAR ID:
10042905
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Political Analysis
Volume:
25
Issue:
02
ISSN:
1047-1987
Page Range / eLocation ID:
145 to 166
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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