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1. Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13223  

   Teitelbaum, Claire S. ; Sirén, Alexej P. K. ; Coffel, Ethan ; Foster, Jane R. ; Frair, Jacqueline L. ; Hinton, Joseph W. ; Horton, Radley M. ; Kramer, David W. ; Lesk, Corey ; Raymond, Colin ; et al ( January 2021 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Populations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim to understand local variation in contemporary habitat use and use this information to identify signs of adaptive capacity. We focus on moose (Alces alces), a charismatic species of conservation and public interest.

   The northeastern United States, along the trailing edge of the moose geographic range in North America.

   We compiled data on occurrences and habitat use of moose from remote cameras and GPS collars across the northeastern United States. We use these data to build habitat suitability models at local and regional spatial scales and then to predict future habitat suitability under climate change. We also use fine‐scale GPS data to model relationships between habitat use and temperature on a daily temporal scale and to predict future habitat use.

   We find that habitat suitability for moose will decline under a range of climate change scenarios. However, moose across the region differ in their use of climatic and habitat space, indicating that they could exhibit adaptive capacity. We also find evidence for behavioural responses to weather, where moose increase their use of forested wetland habitats in warmer places and/or times.

   Our results suggest that there will be significant shifts in moose distribution due to climate change. However, if there is spatial variation in thermal tolerance, trailing‐edge populations could adapt to climate change. We highlight that prioritizing certain habitats for conservation (i.e., thermal refuges) could be crucial for this adaptation.

    

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2. Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1559  

   Lewis, William B. ; Cooper, Robert J. ; Chandler, Richard B. ; Chitwood, Ryan W. ; Cline, Mason H. ; Hallworth, Michael T. ; Hatt, Joanna L. ; Hepinstall‐Cymerman, Jeff ; Kaiser, Sara A. ; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L. ; et al ( January 2023 , Ecological Monographs)

   Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

    

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3. Multi‐population seedling and soil transplants show possible responses of a common tropical montane tree species ( Weinmannia bangii ) to climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13443  

   Tito, Richard ; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L. ; Feeley, Kenneth J. ; Barua, ed., Deepak ( June 2020 , Journal of Ecology)

   A possible response of many plant species to global warming is migration to higher elevations. However, these migrations may not be required if species can tolerate higher temperatures, or may be prevented if there are other factors such as changes in soil conditions that make upslope areas unsuitable.

   We used a set of 3‐year field transplant experiments in the remote Peruvian Andes to simulate two possible responses of an abundant tropical montane cloudforest tree species (Weinmania bangii) to global warming: (a) ‘upward migration’, in which case seedlings ofW. bangii'swere grown at their current elevation/temperature but in soils transplanted from higher elevations and (b) ‘migration failure’, in which case seedlings were transplanted downslope along with their home soils into areas that are 1°C or 2°C warmer. We conducted separate experiments with populations from the upper/leading edge, middle and lower/trailing edges ofW. bangii'selevational/thermal range to assess the influence of local adaptation on responses to changes in temperature or soil.

   We found that seedling survival and growth were not affected by changes in soil conditions, regardless of the origin population. However, seedling survival decreased with temperature. A simulated warming of 1°C caused a significant reduction in the survival of seedlings transplanted from the mid‐range population, and 2°C warming caused a severe decrease in the survival of seedlings transplanted from both the mid‐range and bottom‐edge populations.

   Synthesis. Our findings reveal that rising temperatures are a serious threat to plants, especially in populations growing in the hotter portion of their species’ range. At least in the case ofW. bangii,novel soil conditions will not limit the establishment or growth of seedlings at higher elevations. As such, decreases in the survivorship at lower elevations may be offset through upward migrations as temperatures continue to increase.

    

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4. Thermal niche variation among individuals of the poison frog, Oophaga pumilio , in forest and converted habitats

   https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12691  

   Rivera‐Ordonez, Juana M. ; Justin Nowakowski, A. ; Manansala, Adrian ; Thompson, Michelle E. ; Todd, Brian D. ( August 2019 , Biotropica)

   The conversion of natural habitats to human land uses often increases local temperatures, creating novel thermal environments for species. The variable responses of ectotherms to habitat conversion, where some species decline while others persist, can partly be explained by variation among species in their thermal niches. However, few studies have examined thermal niche variation within species and across forest‐land use ecotones, information that could provide clues about the capacity of species to adapt to changing temperatures. Here, we quantify individual‐level variation in thermal traits of the tropical poison frog,Oophaga pumilio, in thermally contrasting habitats. Specifically, we examined local environmental temperatures, field body temperatures (T_b), preferred body temperatures (T_pref), critical thermal maxima (CT_max), and thermal safety margins (TSM) of individuals from warm, converted habitats and cool forests. We found that frogs from converted habitats exhibited greater meanT_bandT_prefthan those from forests. In contrast,CT_maxandTSMdid not differ significantly between habitats. However,CT_maxdid increase moderately with increasingT_b, suggesting that changes inCT_maxmay be driven by microscale temperature exposure within habitats rather than by mean habitat conditions. AlthoughO. pumilioexhibited moderate divergence inT_pref,CT_maxappears to be less labile between habitats, possibly due to the ability of frogs in converted habitats to maintain theirT_bbelow air temperatures that reach or exceedCT_max. Selective pressures on thermal tolerances may increase, however, with the loss of buffering microhabitats and increased frequency of extreme temperatures expected under future habitat degradation and climate warming.

   Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

    

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5. Genotypic variation and plasticity in climate-adaptive traits after range expansion and fragmentation of red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.)

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0008  

   Prakash, Anoob ; DeYoung, Sonia ; Lachmuth, Susanne ; Adams, Jacquelyne L. ; Johnsen, Kurt ; Butnor, John R. ; Nelson, David M. ; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C. ; Keller, Stephen R. ( April 2022 , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences)

   Shifting range limits are predicted for many species as the climate warms. However, the rapid pace of climate change will challenge the natural dispersal capacity of long-lived, sessile organisms such as forest trees. Adaptive responses of populations will, therefore, depend on levels of genetic variation and plasticity for climate-responsive traits, which likely vary across the range due to expansion history and current patterns of selection. Here, we study levels of genetic and plastic variation for phenology and growth traits in populations of red spruce ( Picea rubens ), from the range core to the highly fragmented trailing edge. We measured more than 5000 offspring sampled from three genetically distinct regions (core, margin and edge) grown in three common gardens replicated along a latitudinal gradient. Genetic variation in phenology and growth showed low to moderate heritability and differentiation among regions, suggesting some potential to respond to selection. Phenology traits were highly plastic, but this plasticity was generally neutral or maladaptive in the effect on growth, revealing a potential liability under warmer climates. These results suggest future climate adaptation will depend on the regional availability of genetic variation in red spruce and provide a resource for the design and management of assisted gene flow. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’. 

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