More Like this

1. Both life‐history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range‐wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13990  

   DeMarche, Megan L.; Doak, Daniel F.; Morris, William F. (December 2017, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species‐wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life‐history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species‐wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species’ range—not only those at the trailing range edge—could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species’ latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade‐off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species’ ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species’ abundance and distribution. 

   more » « less
2. Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1559  

   Lewis, William B.; Cooper, Robert J.; Chandler, Richard B.; Chitwood, Ryan W.; Cline, Mason H.; Hallworth, Michael T.; Hatt, Joanna L.; Hepinstall‐Cymerman, Jeff; Kaiser, Sara A.; Rodenhouse, Nicholas L.; et al (January 2023, Ecological Monographs)

   Abstract Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long‐term demography dataset for the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low‐elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid‐elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid‐elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low‐elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low‐elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor‐quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate‐mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black‐throated blue warblers near the warm‐edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions. 

   more » « less
3. Integrating biogeography and behavioral ecology to rapidly address biodiversity loss

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2110866120  

   Marske, Katharine A.; Lanier, Hayley C.; Siler, Cameron D.; Rowe, Ashlee H.; Stein, Laura R. (April 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Addressing climate change and biodiversity loss will be the defining ecological, political, and humanitarian challenge of our time. Alarmingly, policymakers face a narrowing window of opportunity to prevent the worst impacts, necessitating complex decisions about which land to set aside for biodiversity preservation. Yet, our ability to make these decisions is hindered by our limited capacity to predict how species will respond to synergistic drivers of extinction risk. We argue that a rapid integration of biogeography and behavioral ecology can meet these challenges because of the distinct, yet complementary levels of biological organization they address, scaling from individuals to populations, and from species and communities to continental biotas. This union of disciplines will advance efforts to predict biodiversity’s responses to climate change and habitat loss through a deeper understanding of how biotic interactions and other behaviors modulate extinction risk, and how responses of individuals and populations impact the communities in which they are embedded. Fostering a rapid mobilization of expertise across behavioral ecology and biogeography is a critical step toward slowing biodiversity loss. 

   more » « less
4. Clinging to the top: natal dispersal tracks climate gradient in a trailing-edge population of a migratory songbird

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40462-024-00470-0  

   Gaya, Heather E.; Cooper, Robert J.; Delancey, Clayton D.; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Kurimo-Beechuk, Elizabeth A.; Lewis, William B.; Merker, Samuel A.; Chandler, Richard B. (April 2024, Movement Ecology)

   Abstract PurposeTrailing-edge populations at the low-latitude, receding edge of a shifting range face high extinction risk from climate change unless they are able to track optimal environmental conditions through dispersal. MethodsWe fit dispersal models to the locations of 3165 individually-marked black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina, USA from 2002 to 2023. Black-throated blue warbler breeding abundance in this population has remained relatively stable at colder and wetter areas at higher elevations but has declined at warmer and drier areas at lower elevations. ResultsMedian dispersal distance of young warblers was 917 m (range 23–3200 m), and dispersal tended to be directed away from warm and dry locations. In contrast, adults exhibited strong site fidelity between breeding seasons and rarely dispersed more than 100 m (range 10–1300 m). Consequently, adult dispersal kernels were much more compact and symmetric than natal dispersal kernels, suggesting adult dispersal is unlikely a driving force of declines in this population. ConclusionOur findings suggest that directional natal dispersal may mitigate fitness costs for trailing-edge populations by allowing individuals to track changing climate and avoid warming conditions at warm-edge range boundaries. 

   more » « less
5. Long‐term responses to large‐scale disturbances: spatiotemporal variation in gastropod populations and communities

   https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.09605  

   Presley, Steven J.; Willig, Michael R. (July 2023, Oikos)

   The Anthropocene is characterized by complex, primarily human‐generated, disturbance regimes that include combinations of long‐term press (e.g. climate change, pollution) and episodic pulse (e.g. cyclonic storms, floods, wildfires, land use change) disturbances. Within any regime, disturbances occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales, creating complex and varied interactions that influence spatiotemporal dynamics in the abundance, distribution and biodiversity of organisms. Moreover, responses to disturbance are context dependent, with the legacies of previous disturbances affecting responses to ensuing perturbations. We use three decades of annual data to evaluate the effects of repeated pulse disturbances and global warming on gastropod populations and communities in Puerto Rico at multiple spatial scales. More specifically, we quantify 1) the relative importance of large‐scale and small‐scale aspects of disturbance on variation in abundance, biodiversity and species composition; and 2) the spatial scales at which populations and communities integrate information in the spatially heterogenous environments created by disturbances. Gastropods do not exhibit consistent decreases in abundance or biodiversity in association with global warming: abundance for many species has increased over time and species richness does not evince a temporal trend. Nonetheless, gastropods are sensitive to hurricane severity, spatial environmental variation and successional trajectories of the flora. In addition, they exhibit context dependent (i.e. legacy effects) responses that are scale dependent. The Puerto Rican biota has evolved in a disturbance‐mediated system. This historical exposure to repeated, severe hurricane‐induced disturbances has imbued the biota with high resistance and resilience to the current disturbance regime, resulting in an ability to persist or thrive under current environmental conditions. Nonetheless, these ecosystems may yet be threatened by worsening direct and indirect effects of climate change. In particular, more frequent and severe hurricanes may prevent the establishment of closed canopy forests, negatively impacting populations and communities that rely on these habitats. 

   more » « less