Title: Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment
Abstract This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time‐path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience. The results indicate that resilience strategies could have significantly reduced GDP losses from the Wenchuan earthquake by 47.4% during 2008–2011 by accelerating the pace of recovery and could have further reduced losses slightly by shortening the recovery by one year. The results can be generalized to conclude that shortening the recovery period is not nearly as effective as increasing reconstruction investment levels and steepening the time‐path of recovery. This is an important distinction that should be made in the typically vague and singular reference to increasing the speed of recovery in many definitions of dynamic resilience. more »« less
Desmet, Klaus; Kopp, Robert E.; Kulp, Scott A.; Nagy, Dávid Krisztián; Oppenheimer, Michael; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Strauss, Benjamin H.
(, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics)
null
(Ed.)
Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent. (JEL E23, F01, Q54, Q56)
Abstract The eastern North Carolina Coastal Area Management Act region is one of the most hurricane-prone areas of the United States. Hurricanes incur substantial damage and economic losses because structures located near the coast tend to be high value as well as particularly exposed. To bolster disaster mitigation and community resilience, it is crucial to understand how hurricane hazards drive social and economic impacts. We integrate detailed hazard simulations, property data, and labor compensation estimates to comprehensively analyze hurricanes’ economic impacts. This study investigates the spatial distribution of probabilistic hurricane hazards, and concomitant property losses and labor impacts, pinpointing particularly hard hit areas. Relationships between capital and labor losses, social vulnerability, and asset values reveal the latter as the primary determinant of overall economic consequences.
Stein, Ross S; Bird, Peter
(, Seismological Research Letters)
Abstract The five Mw≥7.8 continental transform earthquakes since 2000 all nucleated on branch faults. This includes the 2001 Mw 7.8 Kokoxili, 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, and 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık events. A branch or splay is typically an immature fault that connects to the transform at an oblique angle and can have a different rake and dip than the transform. The branch faults ruptured for at least 25 km before they joined the transforms, which then ruptured an additional 250–450 km, in all but one case (Pazarcık) unilaterally. Branch fault nucleation is also likely for the 1939 M 7.8 Erzincan earthquake, possible for the 1906 Mw∼7.8 and 1857 Mw∼7.9 San Andreas earthquakes, but not for the 1990 Mw 7.7 Luzon, 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan, and 2023 Mw 7.7 Elbistan events. Here, we argue that because fault continuity and cataclastite within the fault damage zone develop through cumulative fault slip, mature transforms are pathways for dynamic rupture. Once a rupture enters the transform from the branch fault, flash shear heating causes pore fluid pressurization and sudden weakening in the cataclastite, resulting in very low dynamic friction. But the static friction on transforms is high, and so they are usually far from failure, which could be why they tend to be aseismic between, or at least for centuries after, great events. This could explain why the largest continental transform earthquakes either begin on a branch fault or nucleate along the transform at locations where the damage zone is absent or the fault continuity is disrupted by bends or echelons, as in the 1999 Mw 7.6 İzmit earthquake. Recognition of branch fault nucleation could be used to strengthen earthquake early warning in regions such as California, New Zealand, and Türkiye with transform faults.
Abstract Large earthquakes can construct mountainous topography by inducing rock uplift but also erode mountains by causing landslides. Observations following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake show that landslide volumes in some cases match seismically induced uplift, raising questions about how the actions of individual earthquakes accumulate to build topography. Here we model the two‐dimensional surface displacement field generated over a full earthquake cycle accounting for coseismic deformation, postseismic relaxation, landslide erosion, and erosion‐induced isostatic compensation. We explore the related volume balance across different seismotectonic and topographic conditions and revisit the Wenchuan case in this context. The ratio (Ω) between landslide erosion and uplift is most sensitive to parameters determining landslide volumes (particularly earthquake magnitudeMw, seismic energy source depth, and failure susceptibility, as well as the seismological factor responsible for triggering landslides), and is moderately sensitive to the effective elastic thickness of lithosphere,Te. For a specified magnitude, more erosive events (higher Ω) tend to occur at shallower depth, in thicker‐Telithosphere, and in steeper, more landslide‐prone landscapes. For given landscape and seismotectonic conditions, the volumes of both landslides and uplift to first order positively scale withMwand seismic momentMo. However, higherMwearthquakes generate lower landslide and uplift volumes per unitMo, suggesting lower efficiency in the use of seismic energy to drive topographic change. With our model, we calculate the long‐term average seismic volume balance for the eastern Tibetan region and find that the net topographic effect of earthquakes in this region tends to be constructive rather than erosive. Overall, destructive events are rare when considering processes over the full earthquake cycle, although they are more likely if only considering the coseismic volume budget (as was the case for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake where landsliding substantially offset coseismic uplift). Irrespective of the net budget, our results suggest that the erosive power of earthquakes plays an important role in mountain belt evolution, including by influencing structures and spatial patterns of deformation, for example affecting the wavelength of topography.
Ramirez-Burgueno, Luis; Sang, Yuanrui; Santiago, Nayda
(, The 54th North American Power Symposium (NAPS))
Natural disasters has been causing an increasing amount of economic losses in the past two decades. Natural disasters, such as hurricanes, winter storms, and wildfires, can cause severe damages to power systems, significantly impacting industrial, commercial, and residential activities, leading to not only economic losses but also inconveniences to people’s day-today life. Improving the resilience of power systems can lead to a reduced number of power outages during extreme events and is a critical goal in today’s power system operations. This paper presents a model for decentralized decision-making in power systems based on distributed optimization and implemented it on a modified RTS-96 test system, discusses the convergence of the problem, and compares the impact of decision-making mechanisms on power system resilience. Results show that a decentralized decision-making algorithm can significantly reduce power outages when part of the system is islanded during severe transmission contingencies.
@article{osti_10049723,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10049723},
DOI = {10.1111/risa.12948},
abstractNote = {Abstract This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time‐path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience. The results indicate that resilience strategies could have significantly reduced GDP losses from the Wenchuan earthquake by 47.4% during 2008–2011 by accelerating the pace of recovery and could have further reduced losses slightly by shortening the recovery by one year. The results can be generalized to conclude that shortening the recovery period is not nearly as effective as increasing reconstruction investment levels and steepening the time‐path of recovery. This is an important distinction that should be made in the typically vague and singular reference to increasing the speed of recovery in many definitions of dynamic resilience.},
journal = {Risk Analysis},
volume = {38},
number = {6},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
author = {Xie, Wei and Rose, Adam and Li, Shantong and He, Jianwu and Li, Ning and Ali, Tariq},
}
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