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Title: Does Predictive Policing Lead to Biased Arrests? Results From a Randomized Controlled Trial
Racial bias in predictive policing algorithms has been the focus of a number of recent news articles, statements of concern by several national organizations (e.g., the ACLU and NAACP), and simulation-based research. There is reasonable concern that predictive algorithms encourage directed police patrols to target minority communities with discriminatory consequences for minority individuals. However, to date there have been no empirical studies on the bias of predictive algorithms used for police patrol. Here, we test for such biases using arrest data from the Los Angeles predictive policing experiments. We ind that there were no significant differences in the proportion of arrests by racial-ethnic group between control and treatment conditions. We ind that the total numbers of arrests at the division level declined or remained unchanged during predictive policing deployments. Arrests were numerically higher at the algorithmically predicted locations. When adjusted for the higher overall crime rate at algorithmically predicted locations, however, arrests were lower or unchanged.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1737770
NSF-PAR ID:
10058706
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Statistics and public policy
ISSN:
2330-443X
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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