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Abstract The Randomized Kaczmarz method (RK) is a stochastic iterative method for solving linear systems that has recently grown in popularity due to its speed and low memory requirement. Selectable Set Randomized Kaczmarz is a variant of RK that leverages existing information about the Kaczmarz iterate to identify an adaptive “selectable set” and thus yields an improved convergence guarantee. In this article, we propose a general perspective for selectable set approaches and prove a convergence result for that framework. In addition, we define two specific selectable set sampling strategies that have competitive convergence guarantees to those of other variants of RK. One selectable set sampling strategy leverages information about the previous iterate, while the other leverages the orthogonality structure of the problem via the Gramian matrix. We complement our theoretical results with numerical experiments that compare our proposed rules with those existing in the literature. 

In this paper, we use modified versions of the SIAR model for epidemics to propose two ways of understanding and quantifying the effect of non-compliance to non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the spread of an infectious disease. The SIAR model distinguishes between symptomatic infected (I) and asymptomatic infected (A) populations. One modification, which is simpler, assumes a known proportion of the population does not comply with government mandates such as quarantining and social-distancing. In a more sophisticated approach, the modified model treats non-compliant behavior as a social contagion. We theoretically explore different scenarios such as the occurrence of multiple waves of infections. Local and asymptotic analyses for both models are also provided. 

We present a fast, accurate estimation method for multivariate Hawkes self-exciting point processes widely used in seismology, criminology, finance and other areas. There are two major ingredients. The first is an analytic derivation of exact maximum likelihood estimates of the nonparametric triggering density. We develop this for the multivariate case and add regularization to improve stability and robustness. The second is a moment-based method for the background rate and triggering matrix estimation, which is extended here for the spatiotemporal case. Our method combines them together in an efficient way, and we prove the consistency of this new approach. Extensive numerical experiments, with synthetic data and real-world social network data, show that our method improves the accuracy, scalability and computational efficiency of prevailing estimation approaches. Moreover, it greatly boosts the performance of Hawkes process-based models on social network reconstruction and helps to understand the spatiotemporal triggering dynamics over social media. 

In this paper, we develop a continuum model for the movement of agents on a lattice, taking into account location desirability, local and far-range migration, and localized entry and exit rates. Specifically, our motivation is to qualitatively describe the homeless population in Los Angeles. The model takes the form of a fully nonlinear, nonlocal, non-degenerate parabolic partial differential equation. We derive the model and prove useful properties of smooth solutions, including uniqueness and [Formula: see text]-stability under certain hypotheses. We also illustrate numerical solutions to the model and find that a simple model can be qualitatively similar in behavior to observed homeless encampments. 

Residential burglary is a social problem in every major urban area. As such, progress has been to develop quantitative, informative and applicable models for this type of crime: (1) the Deterministic-time-step (DTS) model [Short, D’Orsogna, Pasour, Tita, Brantingham, Bertozzi & Chayes (2008) Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci. 18 , 1249–1267], a pioneering agent-based statistical model of residential burglary criminal behaviour, with deterministic time steps assumed for arrivals of events in which the residential burglary aggregate pattern formation is quantitatively studied for the first time; (2) the SSRB model (agent-based stochastic-statistical model of residential burglary crime) [Wang, Zhang, Bertozzi & Short (2019) Active Particles , Vol. 2 , Springer Nature Switzerland AG, in press], in which the stochastic component of the model is theoretically analysed by introduction of a Poisson clock with time steps turned into exponentially distributed random variables. To incorporate independence of agents, in this work, five types of Poisson clocks are taken into consideration. Poisson clocks (I), (II) and (III) govern independent agent actions of burglary behaviour, and Poisson clocks (IV) and (V) govern interactions of agents with the environment. All the Poisson clocks are independent. The time increments are independently exponentially distributed, which are more suitable to model individual actions of agents. Applying the method of merging and splitting of Poisson processes, the independent Poisson clocks can be treated as one, making the analysis and simulation similar to the SSRB model. A Martingale formula is derived, which consists of a deterministic and a stochastic component. A scaling property of the Martingale formulation with varying burglar population is found, which provides a theory to the finite size effects . The theory is supported by quantitative numerical simulations using the pattern-formation quantifying statistics. Results presented here will be transformative for both elements of application and analysis of agent-based models for residential burglary or in other domains. 

We present a preliminary study of a knowledge graph created from season one of the television show Veronica Mars, which follows the eponymous young private investigator as she attempts to solve the murder of her best friend Lilly Kane. We discuss various techniques for mining the knowledge graph for clues and potential suspects. We also discuss best practice for collaboratively constructing knowledge graphs from television shows. 

Multivariate spatial point process models can describe heterotopic data over space. However, highly multivariate intensities are computationally challenging due to the curse of dimensionality. To bridge this gap, we introduce a declustering based hidden variable model that leads to an efficient inference procedure via a variational autoencoder (VAE). We also prove that this model is a generalization of the VAE-based model for collaborative filtering. This leads to an interesting application of spatial point process models to recommender systems. Experimental results show the method’s utility on both synthetic data and real-world data sets. 

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.