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1. mRSC: Multidimensional Robust Synthetic Control

   https://doi.org/10.1145/3309697.3331507  

   Amjad, Muhammad Jehangir ; Misra, Vishal ; Shah, Devavrat ; Shen, Dennis ( July 2019 , ACM SIGMETRICS)

   We propose an algorithm to impute and forecast a time series by transforming the observed time series into a matrix, utilizing matrix estimation to recover missing values and de-noise observed entries, and performing linear regression to make predictions. At the core of our analysis is a representation result, which states that for a large class of models, the transformed time series matrix is (approximately) low-rank. In effect, this generalizes the widely used Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) in the time series literature, and allows us to establish a rigorous link between time series analysis and matrix estimation. The key to establishing this link is constructing a Page matrix with non-overlapping entries rather than a Hankel matrix as is commonly done in the literature (e.g., SSA). This particular matrix structure allows us to provide finite sample analysis for imputation and prediction, and prove the asymptotic consistency of our method. Another salient feature of our algorithm is that it is model agnostic with respect to both the underlying time dynamics and the noise distribution in the observations. The noise agnostic property of our approach allows us to recover the latent states when only given access to noisy and partial observations a la a Hidden Markov Model; e.g., recovering the time-varying parameter of a Poisson process without knowing that the underlying process is Poisson. Furthermore, since our forecasting algorithm requires regression with noisy features, our approach suggests a matrix estimation based method-coupled with a novel, non-standard matrix estimation error metric-to solve the error-in-variable regression problem, which could be of interest in its own right. Through synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms standard software packages (including R libraries) in the presence of missing data as well as high levels of noise. 

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2. Model Agnostic Time Series Analysis via Matrix Estimation

   Agarwal, Anish ; Amjad, Muhammad Jehangir ; Shah, Devavrat ; Shen, Dennis ( December 2018 , ACM SIGMETRICS performance evaluation review)

   We propose an algorithm to impute and forecast a time series by transforming the observed time series into a matrix, utilizing matrix estimation to recover missing values and de-noise observed entries, and performing linear regression to make predictions. At the core of our analysis is a representation result, which states that for a large class of models, the transformed time series matrix is (approximately) low-rank. In effect, this generalizes the widely used Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) in the time series literature, and allows us to establish a rigorous link between time series analysis and matrix estimation. The key to establishing this link is constructing a Page matrix with non-overlapping entries rather than a Hankel matrix as is commonly done in the literature (e.g., SSA). This particular matrix structure allows us to provide finite sample analysis for imputation and prediction, and prove the asymptotic consistency of our method. Another salient feature of our algorithm is that it is model agnostic with respect to both the underlying time dynamics and the noise distribution in the observations. The noise agnostic property of our approach allows us to recover the latent states when only given access to noisy and partial observations a la a Hidden Markov Model; e.g., recovering the time-varying parameter of a Poisson process without knowing that the underlying process is Poisson. Furthermore, since our forecasting algorithm requires regression with noisy features, our approach suggests a matrix estimation based method—coupled with a novel, non-standard matrix estimation error metric—to solve the error-in-variable regression problem, which could be of interest in its own right. Through synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms standard software packages (including R libraries) in the presence of missing data as well as high levels of noise. 

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3. Solving Sparse Linear Systems Faster than Matrix Multiplication

   https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611976465.31  

   Peng, Richard ; Vempala, Santosh S. ( January 2021 , Proceedings of the 2021 ACM-SIAM Symposium on Discrete Algorithms, SODA 2021, Virtual Conference, January 10 - 13, 2021)

   null (Ed.)

   Can linear systems be solved faster than matrix multiplication? While there has been remarkable progress for the special cases of graph structured linear systems, in the general setting, the bit complexity of solving an $n \times n$ linear system $Ax=b$ is $\tilde{O}(n^\omega)$, where $\omega < 2.372864$ is the matrix multiplication exponent. Improving on this has been an open problem even for sparse linear systems with poly$(n)$ condition number. In this paper, we present an algorithm that solves linear systems in sparse matrices asymptotically faster than matrix multiplication for any $\omega > 2$. This speedup holds for any input matrix $A$ with $o(n^{\omega -1}/\log(\kappa(A)))$ non-zeros, where $\kappa(A)$ is the condition number of $A$. For poly$(n)$-conditioned matrices with $\tilde{O}(n)$ nonzeros, and the current value of $\omega$, the bit complexity of our algorithm to solve to within any $1/\text{poly}(n)$ error is $O(n^{2.331645})$. Our algorithm can be viewed as an efficient, randomized implementation of the block Krylov method via recursive low displacement rank factorizations. It is inspired by the algorithm of [Eberly et al. ISSAC `06 `07] for inverting matrices over finite fields. In our analysis of numerical stability, we develop matrix anti-concentration techniques to bound the smallest eigenvalue and the smallest gap in eigenvalues of semi-random matrices. 

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4. A Minimax Lower Bound for Low-Rank Matrix-Variate Logistic Regression

   https://doi.org/10.1109/IEEECONF53345.2021.9723149  

   Taki, Batoul ; Ghassemi, Mohsen ; Sarwate, Anand D. ; Bajwa, Waheed U. ( October 2021 , 55th Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems, and Computers)

   This paper considers the problem of matrix-variate logistic regression. This paper derives the fundamental error threshold on estimating low-rank coefficient matrices in the logistic regression problem by deriving a lower bound on the minimax risk. The bound depends explicitly on the dimension and distribution of the covariates, the rank and energy of the coefficient matrix, and the number of samples. The resulting bound is proportional to the intrinsic degrees of freedom in the problem, which suggests the sample complexity of the low-rank matrix logistic regression problem can be lower than that for vectorized logistic regression. The proof techniques utilized in this work also set the stage for development of minimax lower bounds for tensor-variate logistic regression problems. 

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5. Iterative Collaborative Filtering for Sparse Matrix Estimation

   https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2021.2193  

   Borgs, Christian ; Chayes, Jennifer T. ; Shah, Devavrat ; Yu, Christina Lee ( December 2021 , Operations Research)

   We consider sparse matrix estimation where the goal is to estimate an n-by-n matrix from noisy observations of a small subset of its entries. We analyze the estimation error of the popularly used collaborative filtering algorithm for the sparse regime. Specifically, we propose a novel iterative variant of the algorithm, adapted to handle the setting of sparse observations. We establish that as long as the number of entries observed at random scale logarithmically larger than linear in n, the estimation error with respect to the entry-wise max norm decays to zero as n goes to infinity, assuming the underlying matrix of interest has constant rank r. Our result is robust to model misspecification in that if the underlying matrix is approximately rank r, then the estimation error decays to the approximation error with respect to the [Formula: see text]-norm. In the process, we establish the algorithm’s ability to handle arbitrary bounded noise in the observations. 

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