mRSC: Multidimensional Robust Synthetic Control
We propose an algorithm to impute and forecast a time series by transforming the observed time series into a matrix, utilizing matrix estimation to recover missing values and de-noise observed entries, and performing linear regression to make predictions. At the core of our analysis is a representation result, which states that for a large class of models, the transformed time series matrix is (approximately) low-rank. In effect, this generalizes the widely used Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) in the time series literature, and allows us to establish a rigorous link between time series analysis and matrix estimation. The key to establishing this link is constructing a Page matrix with non-overlapping entries rather than a Hankel matrix as is commonly done in the literature (e.g., SSA). This particular matrix structure allows us to provide finite sample analysis for imputation and prediction, and prove the asymptotic consistency of our method. Another salient feature of our algorithm is that it is model agnostic with respect to both the underlying time dynamics and the noise distribution in the observations. The noise agnostic property of our approach allows us to recover the latent states when only given access to noisy and partial observations a la a more »
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Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10112490
Journal Name:
ACM SIGMETRICS
Volume:
2
Issue:
3
5. We consider the high-dimensional linear regression problem, where the algorithmic goal is to efficiently infer an unknown feature vector $\beta^*\in\mathbb{R}^p$ from its linear measurements, using a small number $n$ of samples. Unlike most of the literature, we make no sparsity assumption on $\beta^*$, but instead adopt a different regularization: In the noiseless setting, we assume $\beta^*$ consists of entries, which are either rational numbers with a common denominator $Q\in\mathbb{Z}^+$ (referred to as $Q-$rationality); or irrational numbers taking values in a rationally independent set of bounded cardinality, known to learner; collectively called as the mixed-range assumption. Using a novel combination ofmore »