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Objective: Evaluate the effectiveness of machine learning tools that incorporate spatial information such as disease location and lymph node metastatic patterns-of-spread, for prediction of survival and toxicity in HPV+ oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Materials & methods: 675 HPV+ OPC patients that were treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center between 2005 and 2013 with curative intent IMRT were retrospectively collected under IRB approval. Risk stratifications incorporating patient radiometric data and lymph node metastasis patterns via an anatomically-adjacent representation with hierarchical clustering were identified. These clusterings were combined into a 3-level patient stratification and included along with other known clinical features in a Cox model for predicting survival outcomes, and logistic regression for toxicity, using independent subsets for training and validation. Results: Four groups were identified and combined into a 3-level stratification. The inclusion of patient stratifications in predictive models for 5-yr Overall survival (OS), 5-year recurrence free survival, (RFS) and Radiation-associated dysphagia (RAD) consistently improved model performance measured using the area under the curve (AUC). Test set AUC improvements over models with clinical covariates, was 9 % for predicting OS, and 18 % for predicting RFS, and 7 % for predicting RAD. For models with both clinical and AJCC covariates, AUC improvement was 7 %, 9 %, and 2 % for OS, RFS, and RAD, respectively. Conclusion: Including data-driven patient stratifications considerably improve prognosis for survival and toxicity outcomes over the performance achieved by clinical staging and clinical covariates alone. These stratifications generalize well to across cohorts, and sufficient information for reproducing these clusters is included.
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Longitudinal Patterns in Clinical and Imaging Measurements Predict Residual Survival in Glioblastoma Patients
The growing amount of longitudinal data for a large population of patients has necessitated the application of algorithms that can discover patterns that inform patient management. This study demonstrates how temporal patterns generated from a combination of clinical and imaging measurements improve residual survival prediction in glioblastoma patients. Temporal patterns were identified with sequential pattern mining using data from 304 patients. Along with patient covariates, the patterns were incorporated as features in logistic regression models to predict 2-, 6-, or 9-month residual survival at each visit. The modeling approach that included temporal patterns achieved test performances of 0.820, 0.785, and 0.783 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting 2-, 6-, and 9-month residual survival, respectively. This approach significantly outperformed models that used tumor volume alone (p < 0.001) or tumor volume combined with patient covariates (p < 0.001) in training. Temporal patterns involving an increase in tumor volume above 122 mm3/day, a decrease in KPS across multiple visits, moderate neurologic symptoms, and worsening overall neurologic function suggested lower residual survival. These patterns are readily interpretable and found to be consistent with known prognostic indicators, suggesting they can provide early indicators to clinicians of changes in patient state that inform management decisions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1722516
- PAR ID:
- 10064295
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific reports
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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