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The often fierce competition on crowdfunding markets can significantly affect project success. While various factors have been considered in predicting the success of crowdfunding projects, to the best knowledge of the authors, the phenomenon of competition has not been investigated. In this paper, we study the competition on crowdfunding markets through data analysis, and propose a probabilistic generative model, Dynamic Market Competition (DMC) model, to capture the competitiveness of projects in crowdfunding. Through an empirical evaluation using the pledging history of past crowdfunding projects, our approach has shown to capture the competitiveness of projects very well, and significantly outperforms several baseline approaches in predicting the daily collected funds of crowdfunding projects, reducing errors by 31.73% to 45.14%. In addition, our analyses on the correlations between project competitiveness, project design factors, and project success indicate that highly competitive projects, while being winners under various setting of project design factors, are particularly impressive with high pledging goals and high price rewards, comparing to medium and low competitive projects. Finally, the competitiveness of projects learned by DMC is shown to be very useful in applications of predicting final success and days taken to hit pledging goal, reaching 85% accuracy and error of less than 7 days, respectively, with limited information at early pledging stage.
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Modeling Menu Bundle Designs of Crowdfunding Projects
Offering products in the forms of menu bundles is a common practice in marketing to attract customers and maximize revenues. In crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter, rewards also play an important part in influencing project success. Designing rewards consisting of the appropriate items is a challenging yet crucial task for the project creators. However, prior research has not considered the strategies project creators take to offer and bundle the rewards, making it hard to study the impact of reward designs on project success. In this paper, we raise a novel research question: understanding project creators’ decisions of reward designs to level their chance to succeed. We approach this by modeling the design behavior of project creators, and identifying the behaviors that lead to project success. We propose a probabilistic generative model, Menu-Offering-Bundle (MOB) model, to capture the offering and bundling decisions of project creators based on collected data of 14K crowdfunding projects and their 149K reward bundles across a half-year period. Our proposed model is shown to capture the offering and bundling topics, outperform the baselines in predicting reward designs.We also find that the learned offering and bundling topics carry distinguishable meanings and provide insights of key factors on project success.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1717084
- PAR ID:
- 10065396
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the 2017 ACM on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1079 to 1088
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3132847.3132958
