The loss or thinning of buttressing ice shelves and accompanying changes in grounding-zone stress balance are commonly implicated as the primary trigger for grounding-line retreat, such as that observed in Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers today. Ice-shelf thinning is mostly attributed to the presence of warm ocean waters beneath the shelves. However, climate model projections show that summer air temperatures could soon exceed the threshold for widespread meltwater production on ice-shelf surfaces. This has serious implications for their future stability, because they are vulnerable to water-induced flexural stresses and water-aided crevasse penetration, termed ‘hydrofracturing’. Once initiated, the rate of shelf loss through hydrofracturing can far exceed that caused by sub-surface melting, and could result in the complete loss of some buttressing ice shelves, with marine grounding lines suddenly becoming calving ice fronts. In places where those exposed ice fronts are thick (>900m) and crevassed, deviatoric stresses can exceed the strength of the ice and the cliff face will fail mechanically, leading to rapid calving like that seen in analogous settings such as Jakobshavn on Greenland.
Here we explore the implications of hydrofacturing and subsequent ice-cliff collapse in a warming climate, by parameterizing these processes in a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model. Model sensitivities to meltwater production and to ice-cliff calving rate (a function of cliff height above the stress balance threshold triggering brittle failure) are calibrated to match modern observations of calving and thinning. We find the potential for major ice-sheet retreat if global mean temperature rises more than ~2ºC above preindustrial. In the model, Antarctic calving rates at thick ice fronts are not allowed to exceed those observed in Greenland today. This may be a conservative assumption, considering the very different spatial scales of Antarctic outlets, such as Thwaites. Nonetheless, simulations following a ‘worst case’ RCP8.5 scenario produce rates of sea-level rise measured in cm per year by the end of this century. Clearly, the potential for brittle processes to deliver ice to the ocean, in addition to viscous and basal processes, needs to be better constrained through more complete, physically based representations of calving.
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Simple model of melange and its influence on rapid ice retreat in a large-scale Antarctic ice sheet model
Theory, modeling and observations point to the prospect of runaway
grounding-line retreat and marine ice loss from West Antarctica and
major East Antarctic basins, in response to climate warming. These rapid
retreats are associated with geologic evidence of past high sea-level
stands, and pose a threat of drastic sea-level rise in the future.
Rapid calving of ice from deep grounding lines generates substantial
downstream melange (floating ice debris). It is unknown whether this melange
has a significant effect on ice dynamics during major Antarctic retreats,
through clogging of seaways and back pressure at the grounding line.
Observations in Greenland fjords suggest that melange can have a significant
buttressing effect, but the lateral scales of Antarctic basins are an order
of magnitude larger (100's km compared to 10's km), with presumably much
less influence of confining margins.
Here we attempt to include melange as a prognostic variable in a 3-D
Antarctic ice sheet-shelf model. Continuum mechanics is used as a
heuristic representation of discrete particle physics. Melange is created
by ice calving and cliff failure. Its dynamics are treated similarly to
ice flow, but with little or no resistance to divergence. Melange provides
back pressure where adjacent to grounded tidewater ice faces or ice-shelf
edges. We examine the influence of the new melange component during rapid
Antarctic retreat in warm-Pliocene and future warming scenarios.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1664013
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10066644
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AGU Fall Meeting 2017
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice-front velocities and calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel, and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica, and later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins.more » « less
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Abstract. Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange(floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat ofAntarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange providessubstantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice front calvingrates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown ifmélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as anegative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model,using a continuum-mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible forlong-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealizedrectangular channel and calibrated very basically using observed modernconditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied todrastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate.With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavnresults, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocenesimulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélangegenerated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarcticaand for later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter valuesare changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outsidethe range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapsesand retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins.
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Abstract Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multisource satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift‐induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be an important control on localized flow acceleration and the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment‐confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves.
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The Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica has long been considered the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) because of the great water depth at the grounding line, a subglacial bed seafloor deepening toward the interior of the continent, and the absence of substantial ice shelves. Glaciers in this configuration are thought to be susceptible to rapid or runaway retreat. Ice flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment is undergoing the most rapid changes of any sector of the Antarctic ice sheets outside the Antarctic Peninsula, including substantial grounding-line retreat over recent decades, as observed from satellite data. Recent models suggest that a threshold leading to the collapse of WAIS in this sector may have been already crossed and that much of the ice sheet could be lost even under relatively moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Drill cores from the Amundsen Sea provide tests of several key questions about controls on ice sheet stability. The cores offer a direct offshore record of glacial history in a sector that is exclusively influenced by ice draining the WAIS, which allows clear comparisons between the WAIS history and low-latitude climate records. Today, relatively warm (modified) Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is impinging onto the Amundsen Sea shelf and causing melting under ice shelves and at the grounding line of the WAIS in most places. Reconstructions of past CDW intrusions can assess the ties between warm water upwelling and large-scale changes in past grounding-line positions. Carrying out these reconstructions offshore from the drainage basin that currently has the most substantial negative mass balance of ice anywhere in Antarctica is thus of prime interest to future predictions. The scientific objectives for this expedition are built on hypotheses about WAIS dynamics and related paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions. The main objectives are: 1. To test the hypothesis that WAIS collapses occurred during the Neogene and Quaternary and, if so, when and under which environmental conditions; 2. To obtain ice-proximal records of ice sheet dynamics in the Amundsen Sea that correlate with global records of ice-volume changes and proxy records for atmospheric and ocean temperatures; 3. To study the stability of a marine-based WAIS margin and how warm deepwater incursions control its position on the shelf; 4. To find evidence for the earliest major grounded WAIS advances onto the middle and outer shelf; 5. To test the hypothesis that the first major WAIS growth was related to the uplift of the Marie Byrd Land dome. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 379 completed two very successful drill sites on the continental rise of the Amundsen Sea. Site U1532 is located on a large sediment drift, now called the Resolution Drift, and it penetrated to 794 m with 90% recovery. We collected almost-continuous cores from recent age through the Pleistocene and Pliocene and into the upper Miocene. At Site U1533, we drilled 383 m (70% recovery) into the more condensed sequence at the lower flank of the same sediment drift. The cores of both sites contain unique records that will enable study of the cyclicity of ice sheet advance and retreat processes as well as ocean-bottom water circulation and water mass changes. In particular, Site U1532 revealed a sequence of Pliocene sediments with an excellent paleomagnetic record for high-resolution climate change studies of the previously sparsely sampled Pacific sector of the West Antarctic margin. Despite the drilling success at these sites, the overall expedition experienced three unexpected difficulties that affected many of the scientific objectives: 1. The extensive sea ice on the continental shelf prevented us from drilling any of the proposed shelf sites. 2. 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