Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice-front velocities and calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel, and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica, and later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins.
more »
« less
A continuum model (PSUMEL1) of ice mélange and its role during retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Abstract. Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange(floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat ofAntarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange providessubstantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice front calvingrates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown ifmélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as anegative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model,using a continuum-mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible forlong-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealizedrectangular channel and calibrated very basically using observed modernconditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied todrastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate.With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavnresults, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocenesimulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélangegenerated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarcticaand for later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter valuesare changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outsidethe range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapsesand retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1664013
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10113453
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific Model Development
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1991-9603
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 5149 to 5172
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Theory, modeling and observations point to the prospect of runaway grounding-line retreat and marine ice loss from West Antarctica and major East Antarctic basins, in response to climate warming. These rapid retreats are associated with geologic evidence of past high sea-level stands, and pose a threat of drastic sea-level rise in the future. Rapid calving of ice from deep grounding lines generates substantial downstream melange (floating ice debris). It is unknown whether this melange has a significant effect on ice dynamics during major Antarctic retreats, through clogging of seaways and back pressure at the grounding line. Observations in Greenland fjords suggest that melange can have a significant buttressing effect, but the lateral scales of Antarctic basins are an order of magnitude larger (100's km compared to 10's km), with presumably much less influence of confining margins. Here we attempt to include melange as a prognostic variable in a 3-D Antarctic ice sheet-shelf model. Continuum mechanics is used as a heuristic representation of discrete particle physics. Melange is created by ice calving and cliff failure. Its dynamics are treated similarly to ice flow, but with little or no resistance to divergence. Melange provides back pressure where adjacent to grounded tidewater ice faces or ice-shelf edges. We examine the influence of the new melange component during rapid Antarctic retreat in warm-Pliocene and future warming scenarios.more » « less
-
Abstract Marine ice-cliff instability could accelerate ice loss from Antarctica, and according to some model predictions could potentially contribute >1 m of global mean sea level rise by 2100 at current emission rates. Regions with over-deepening basins >1 km in depth (e.g., the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are particularly susceptible to this instability, as retreat could expose increasingly tall cliffs that could exceed ice stability thresholds. Here, we use a suite of high-fidelity glacier models to improve understanding of the modes through which ice cliffs can structurally fail and derive a conservative ice-cliff failure retreat rate parameterization for ice-sheet models. Our results highlight the respective roles of viscous deformation, shear-band formation, and brittle-tensile failure within marine ice-cliff instability. Calving rates increase non-linearly with cliff height, but runaway ice-cliff retreat can be inhibited by viscous flow and back force from iceberg mélange.more » « less
-
The loss or thinning of buttressing ice shelves and accompanying changes in grounding-zone stress balance are commonly implicated as the primary trigger for grounding-line retreat, such as that observed in Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers today. Ice-shelf thinning is mostly attributed to the presence of warm ocean waters beneath the shelves. However, climate model projections show that summer air temperatures could soon exceed the threshold for widespread meltwater production on ice-shelf surfaces. This has serious implications for their future stability, because they are vulnerable to water-induced flexural stresses and water-aided crevasse penetration, termed ‘hydrofracturing’. Once initiated, the rate of shelf loss through hydrofracturing can far exceed that caused by sub-surface melting, and could result in the complete loss of some buttressing ice shelves, with marine grounding lines suddenly becoming calving ice fronts. In places where those exposed ice fronts are thick (>900m) and crevassed, deviatoric stresses can exceed the strength of the ice and the cliff face will fail mechanically, leading to rapid calving like that seen in analogous settings such as Jakobshavn on Greenland. Here we explore the implications of hydrofacturing and subsequent ice-cliff collapse in a warming climate, by parameterizing these processes in a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model. Model sensitivities to meltwater production and to ice-cliff calving rate (a function of cliff height above the stress balance threshold triggering brittle failure) are calibrated to match modern observations of calving and thinning. We find the potential for major ice-sheet retreat if global mean temperature rises more than ~2ºC above preindustrial. In the model, Antarctic calving rates at thick ice fronts are not allowed to exceed those observed in Greenland today. This may be a conservative assumption, considering the very different spatial scales of Antarctic outlets, such as Thwaites. Nonetheless, simulations following a ‘worst case’ RCP8.5 scenario produce rates of sea-level rise measured in cm per year by the end of this century. Clearly, the potential for brittle processes to deliver ice to the ocean, in addition to viscous and basal processes, needs to be better constrained through more complete, physically based representations of calving.more » « less
-
The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice above floatation to contribute ∼57 m of sea-level rise. About a third of that ice rests on bedrock far below sea level, in deep subglacial basins. In places where the bedrock slopes downward, away from the coast (retrograde bed) or where groundling lines terminate in deep water, the ice-sheet margin is susceptible to dynamic instabilities (related to both viscous and brittle processes) that can cause rapid retreat. Here, we use a numerical ice sheet-shelf model that captures these processes to demonstrate that the current configuration of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with marine-terminating grounding lines poised on the edges of deep subglacial basins, combined with current, early 21st century atmospheric and oceanic tempera- tures, maximizes the danger of rapid retreat and sea-level rise. The potential retreat rates from the modern state greatly exceed those starting from other past configurations such as glacial maxima and smaller terrestrial ice cover. We also explore the importance of various negative feedbacks on the pace of retreat, including the effects of mélange, meltwater-climate feedback, and bedrock rebound. We find that today’s Antarctic Ice Sheet is capable of contributing faster sea-level rise than at any other time in the ice sheet’s recent (three million-year) geologic history, and possibly its entire 34 million-year history. This potential for unprecedented sea-level rise from Antarctica, coinciding with the recent expansion of human population centers and infrastructure along low-lying coastlines maximizes the risk of a future sea-level catastrophe.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5149-2018
