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1. Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15384  

   Ryan, Sadie J.; Carlson, Colin J.; Tesla, Blanka; Bonds, Matthew H.; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Johnson, Leah R.; Murdock, Courtney C. (October 2020, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature‐dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid‐century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst‐case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV. 

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2. Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9  

   Martin, Gerardo; Yanez-Arenas, Carlos; Chen, Carla; Plowright, Raina K.; Webb, Rebecca J.; Skerratt, Lee F. (September 2018, EcoHealth)
3. Spatiotemporal relative risk distribution of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2023.1158306  

   Sanchez, Felipe; Galvis, Jason A.; Cardenas, Nicolas C.; Corzo, Cesar; Jones, Christopher; Machado, Gustavo (June 2023, Frontiers in Veterinary Science)

   Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widely distributed across the U.S. swine industry. Between-farm movements of animals and transportation vehicles, along with local transmission are the primary routes by which PRRSV is spread. Given the farm-to-farm proximity in high pig production areas, local transmission is an important pathway in the spread of PRRSV; however, there is limited understanding of the role local transmission plays in the dissemination of PRRSV, specifically, the distance at which there is increased risk for transmission from infected to susceptible farms. We used a spatial and spatiotemporal kernel density approach to estimate PRRSV relative risk and utilized a Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical model to assess the effects of environmental variables, between-farm movement data and on-farm biosecurity features on PRRSV outbreaks. The maximum spatial distance calculated through the kernel density approach was 15.3 km in 2018, 17.6 km in 2019, and 18 km in 2020. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed greater variability throughout the study period, with significant differences between the different farm types. We found that downstream farms (i.e., finisher and nursery farms) were located in areas of significant-high relative risk of PRRSV. Factors associated with PRRSV outbreaks were farms with higher number of access points to barns, higher numbers of outgoing movements of pigs, and higher number of days where temperatures were between 4°C and 10°C. Results obtained from this study may be used to guide the reinforcement of biosecurity and surveillance strategies to farms and areas within the distance threshold of PRRSV positive farms. 

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4. Integrated omics endotyping of infants with respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis and risk of childhood asthma

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23859-6  

   Raita, Yoshihiko; Pérez-Losada, Marcos; Freishtat, Robert J.; Harmon, Brennan; Mansbach, Jonathan M.; Piedra, Pedro A.; Zhu, Zhaozhong; Camargo, Carlos A.; Hasegawa, Kohei (December 2021, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is not only the leading cause of hospitalization in U.S. infants, but also a major risk factor for asthma development. While emerging evidence suggests clinical heterogeneity within RSV bronchiolitis, little is known about its biologically-distinct endotypes. Here, we integrated clinical, virus, airway microbiome (species-level), transcriptome, and metabolome data of 221 infants hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis in a multicentre prospective cohort study. We identified four biologically- and clinically-meaningful endotypes: A) clinical classic microbiome M. nonliquefaciens inflammation IFN-intermediate , B) clinical atopic microbiome S. pneumoniae / M. catarrhalis inflammation IFN-high , C) clinical severe microbiome mixed inflammation IFN-low , and D) clinical non-atopic microbiome M.catarrhalis inflammation IL-6 . Particularly, compared with endotype A infants, endotype B infants—who are characterized by a high proportion of IgE sensitization and rhinovirus coinfection, S. pneumoniae/M. catarrhalis codominance, and high IFN-α and -γ response—had a significantly higher risk for developing asthma (9% vs. 38%; OR, 6.00: 95%CI, 2.08–21.9; P = 0.002). Our findings provide an evidence base for the early identification of high-risk children during a critical period of airway development. 

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5. Assessing the population at risk of Zika virus in Asia – is the emergency really over?

   https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000309  

   Siraj, Amir S; Perkins, T Alex (August 2017, BMJ Global Health)