Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought‐related mortality derived from measurements of tree‐ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆13C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (
Severe droughts can impart long‐lasting legacies on forest ecosystems through lagged effects that hinder tree recovery and suppress whole‐forest carbon uptake. However, the local climatic and edaphic factors that interact to affect drought legacies in temperate forests remain unknown. Here, we pair a dataset of 143 tree ring chronologies across the mesic forests of the eastern US with historical climate and local soil properties. We found legacy effects to be widespread, the magnitude of which increased markedly in diffuse porous species, sites with deep water tables, and in response to late‐season droughts (August–September). Using an ensemble of downscaled climate projections, we additionally show that our sites are projected to drastically increase in water deficit and drought frequency by the end of the century, potentially increasing the size of legacy effects by up to 65% and acting as a significant process shaping forest composition, carbon uptake and mortality.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1753845
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10079201
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology Letters
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1461-023X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 119-127
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Pinus ponderosa ). Sampling was conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, near the epicenter of drought severity and mortality associated with the 2012–2015 California drought and concurrent outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis ). At this site, we found that widespread mortality was presaged by five decades of increasing sensitivity (i.e., increased explained variation) of both tree growth and ∆13C to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We hypothesized that increasing sensitivity of tree growth and ∆13C to hydroclimate constitute EWS that indicate an increased likelihood of widespread forest mortality caused by direct and indirect effects of drought. We then tested these EWS in additional ponderosa pine‐dominated forests that experienced varying mortality rates associated with the same California drought event. In general, drier sites showed increasing sensitivity of RWI to PDSI over the last century, as well as higher mortality following the California drought event compared to wetter sites. Two sites displayed evidence that thinning or fire events that reduced stand basal area effectively reversed the trend of increasing hydroclimate sensitivity. These comparisons indicate that reducing competition for soil water and/or decreasing bark beetle host tree density via forest management—particularly in drier regions—may buffer these forests against drought stress and associated mortality risk. EWS such as these could provide land managers more time to mitigate the extent or severity of forest mortality in advance of droughts. Substantial efforts at deploying additional dendrochronological research in concert with remote sensing and forest modeling will aid in forecasting of forest responses to continued climate warming. -
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Abstract Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi‐arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (
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Abstract Despite widespread interest in drought legacies—multiyear impacts of drought on tree growth—the key implication of reported drought legacies remains unaddressed: as impaired growth and slow recovery associated with drought legacies are pervasive across forest ecosystems, what is the impact of more frequent drought conditions? We investigated the assumption that either multiple drought years occurring during a short period (multiyear droughts), or droughts occurring during the recovery period from previous drought (compounded droughts), are detrimental to subsequent growth. There is evidence that drought responses may vary among populations of widespread species, leading us to examine regional differences in responses of the conifer
Pinus ponderosa to historic drought frequency in the western United States. More frequent drought conditions incurred additional growth declines and shifts in growth–climate sensitivities in the years following drought relative to single‐drought events, with ‘triple‐droughts' being worse than ‘double‐droughts'. Notably, prediction skill was not strongly reduced when ignoring compounded droughts, a consequence of the temporally comprehensive formulation of our stochastic antecedent model that accounts for the climatic memory of tree growth. We argue that incorporating drought‐induced temporal variability in tree growth sensitivities can aid inference gained from statistical models, where more simplistic models could overestimate the severity of drought legacies. We also found regional differences in response to repeated drought, and suggest plastic post‐drought sensitivities and climatic memory may represent beneficial physiological adjustments in interior regions. Within‐species variability may thus mediate forest responses to increasing drought frequency under future climate change, but experimental approaches using more species are necessary to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie drought legacy effects on tree growth. -
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Abstract Severe drought can cause lagged effects on tree physiology that negatively impact forest functioning for years. These “drought legacy effects” have been widely documented in tree‐ring records and could have important implications for our understanding of broader scale forest carbon cycling. However, legacy effects in tree‐ring increments may be decoupled from ecosystem fluxes due to (a) postdrought alterations in carbon allocation patterns; (b) temporal asynchrony between radial growth and carbon uptake; and (c) dendrochronological sampling biases. In order to link legacy effects from tree rings to whole forests, we leveraged a rich dataset from a Midwestern US forest that was severely impacted by a drought in 2012. At this site, we compiled tree‐ring records, leaf‐level gas exchange, eddy flux measurements, dendrometer band data, and satellite remote sensing estimates of greenness and leaf area before, during, and after the 2012 drought. After accounting for the relative abundance of tree species in the stand, we estimate that legacy effects led to ~10% reductions in tree‐ring width increments in the year following the severe drought. Despite this stand‐scale reduction in radial growth, we found that leaf‐level photosynthesis, gross primary productivity (GPP), and vegetation greenness were not suppressed in the year following the 2012 drought. Neither temporal asynchrony between radial growth and carbon uptake nor sampling biases could explain our observations of legacy effects in tree rings but not in GPP. Instead, elevated leaf‐level photosynthesis co‐occurred with reduced leaf area in early 2013, indicating that resources may have been allocated away from radial growth in conjunction with postdrought upregulation of photosynthesis and repair of canopy damage. Collectively, our results indicate that tree‐ring legacy effects were not observed in other canopy processes, and that postdrought canopy allocation could be an important mechanism that decouples tree‐ring signals from GPP.
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Abstract Multi‐year lags in tree drought recovery, termed ‘drought legacy effects’, are important for understanding the impacts of drought on forest ecosystems, including carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate change. Despite the ubiquity of lags in drought recovery, large uncertainties remain regarding the mechanistic basis of legacy effects and their importance for the C cycle. In this review, we identify the approaches used to study legacy effects, from tree rings to whole forests. We then discuss key knowledge gaps pertaining to the causes of legacy effects, and how the various mechanisms that may contribute these lags in drought recovery could have contrasting implications for the C cycle. Furthermore, we conduct a novel data synthesis and find that legacy effects differ drastically in both size and length across the US depending on if they are identified in tree rings versus gross primary productivity. Finally, we highlight promising approaches for future research to improve our capacity to model legacy effects and predict their impact on forest health. We emphasise that a holistic view of legacy effects – from tissues to whole forests – will advance our understanding of legacy effects and stimulate efforts to investigate drought recovery via experimental, observational and modelling approaches.
