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Abstract Climate change is expected to increase drought intensity and frequency, which are commonly predicted will threaten the survival of forests. Most forest die‐off projections assume that recent tree mortality will not alter die‐off severity during subsequent droughts. We tested this assumption by comparing die‐off in semi‐arid conifer forest stands in California that were exposed to a single drought in 2012–2015 (“2ndDrought Only”) with forest stands that experienced drought in both 1999–2002 and 2012–2015 (“Both Droughts”). We quantified die‐off severity as a reduction in the satellite observed Normalized Difference Moisture Index, and cumulative moisture deficit as negative 4‐year Precipitation minus Evapotranspiration (4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft). Here we show that recent tree morality reduces die‐off severity in semi‐arid conifer forests exposed to subsequent drought. Stands in the2ndDrought Onlysample experienced severe die‐off associated with extreme 4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft in 2012–2015. Stands in theBoth Droughtssample experienced severe die‐off and 4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft in 1999–2002, but comparatively little 2012–2015 die‐off despite continued 4‐year Pr‐ET overdraft. We interpret this as a dampening effect, where prior tree mortality reduces forest die‐off severity during subsequent drought exposure. As forests continue to experience disturbances linked to climate change, dampening effects will impose a transient, and perhaps long‐term, constraint on the impact of repeated drought.
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The other side of tropical forest drought: do shallow water table regions of Amazonia act as large‐scale hydrological refugia from drought?
Summary Tropical forest function is of global significance to climate change responses, and critically determined by water availability patterns. Groundwater is tightly related to soil water through the water table depth (WT), but historically neglected in ecological studies. Shallow WT forests (WT < 5 m) are underrepresented in forest research networks and absent in eddy flux measurements, although they representc. 50% of the Amazon and are expected to respond differently to global‐change‐related droughts. We review WT patterns and consequences for plants, emerging results, and advance a conceptual model integrating environment and trait distributions to predict climate change effects. Shallow WT forests have a distinct species composition, with more resource‐acquisitive and hydrologically vulnerable trees, shorter canopies and lower biomass than deep WT forests. During ‘normal’ climatic years, shallow WT forests have higher mortality and lower productivity than deep WT forests, but during moderate droughts mortality is buffered and productivity increases. However, during severe drought, shallow WT forests may be more sensitive due to shallow roots and drought‐intolerant traits. Our evidence supports the hypothesis of neglected shallow WT forests being resilient to moderate drought, challenging the prevailing view of widespread negative effects of climate change on Amazonian forests that ignores WT gradients, but predicts they could collapse under very strong droughts.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1950080
- PAR ID:
- 10390364
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- New Phytologist
- Volume:
- 237
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0028-646X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 714-733
- Size(s):
- p. 714-733
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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