This paper presents an integrated computational modelling framework combining pedestrian dynamics and infection spread models, to analyse the infectious disease spread during the different stages of air-travel. While, commercial air travel is central to the global mobility of goods and people, it has also been identified as a leading factor in the spread of several epidemic diseases including influenza, SARS and Ebola. The mixing of susceptible and infectious individuals in these high people density locations like airports involves pedestrian movement which needs to be taken into account in the modeling studies of disease dynamics. We develop a Molecular Dynamics based social force modeling approach for pedestrian dynamics and combine it with a stochastic infection dynamics model to evaluate the spread of viral infectious diseases in airplanes and airports. We apply the multiscale model for various key components of air travel and suggest strategies to reduce the number of contacts and the spread of infectious diseases. We simulate pedestrian movement during boarding and deplaning of some typical commercial airplane models and movement of people through security check areas. We found specific boarding strategies that reduce the number of contacts. Further, we find that smaller airplanes are more effective in reducing the number of contacts compared to larger airplanes. We propose certain queue configuration that reduces contacts between people and mitigate disease spread.
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Molecular Dynamics Like Numerical Approach for Studying Infection Propagation
Molecular dynamics is an N-body method wherein dynamic evolution of interacting atoms and molecules is computationally simulated. It is a popular computational method for studying the mechanical and thermal behavior of nanomaterials and nanocomposites. Social force models [1] of pedestrian evolution utilize the same numerical framework for evolving the trajectories of moving pedestrians. In this paper, we propose an integrated model that merges a social force based pedestrian dynamics theory with a stochastic infection transmission framework to evaluate the propagation of Ebola infection aboard an airplane. Air travel has been identified as a leading factor in the spread of many different viruses [2]. Pedestrian motion through airports and airplanes leads to susceptible passengers coming into contact with infected passengers and contagion with harmful consequences. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of pedestrian movement during air-travel on the spread of infectious diseases. We do so borrowing numerical methods like molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo analysis from the field of computational materials science.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1640824
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10079518
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ICCE 2017
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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This paper presents an integrated computational framework combining a Molecular Dynamics (MD) based social force pedestrian movement model and a stochastic infection dynamics model to evaluate the spread of viral infectious diseases during air-transportation. We apply the multiscale model for three infectious (1) Ebola (2) Influenza (H1N1 strain) and (3) SARS pathogens with different transmission mechanisms and compare the pattern of propagation during an Airbus A320 carrier boarding and deplaning at an airport gate. The objective of this analysis is to assess the influence of pedestrian movement on infection spread during air travel.more » « less
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This paper presents an integrated computational framework combining a molecular Dynamics (MD) based social force pedestrian movement model and a stochastic infection dynamics model to evaluate the spread of viral infectious diseases during air-transportation. We apply the multiscale model for three infectious (1) Ebola (2) Influenza (H1N1 strain) and (3) SARS pathogens with different transmission mechanisms and compare the pattern of propagation during an Airbus A320 carrier boarding and deplaning at an airport gate. The objective of this analysis is to assess the influence of pedestrian movement on infection spread during air travelmore » « less
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In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.more » « less
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