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1. Testing Symmetric Markov Chains from a Single Trajectory

   Constantinos Daskalakis, Nishanth Dikkala ( July 2018 , Conference on Learning Theory (COLT))

   The paper’s abstract in valid LaTeX, without non-standard macros or \cite commands. Classical distribution testing assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the distribution that is being tested. We initiate the study of Markov chain testing, assuming access to a {\em single trajectory of a Markov Chain.} In particular, we observe a single trajectory X0,…,Xt,… of an unknown, symmetric, and finite state Markov Chain M. We do not control the starting state X0, and we cannot restart the chain. Given our single trajectory, the goal is to test whether M is identical to a model Markov Chain M′, or far from it under an appropriate notion of difference. We propose a measure of difference between two Markov chains, motivated by the early work of Kazakos [78], which captures the scaling behavior of the total variation distance between trajectories sampled from the Markov chains as the length of these trajectories grows. We provide efficient testers and information-theoretic lower bounds for testing identity of symmetric Markov chains under our proposed measure of difference, which are tight up to logarithmic factors if the hitting times of the model chain M′ is O~(n) in the size of the state space n. 

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2. Testing Symmetric Markov Chains from a Single Trajectory

   Daskalakis, Constantinos ; Dikkala, Nishanth ; Gravin, Nick ( July 2018 , Conference on Learning Theory (COLT))

   The paper’s abstract in valid LaTeX, without non-standard macros or \cite commands. Classical distribution testing assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the distribution that is being tested. We initiate the study of Markov chain testing, assuming access to a {\em single trajectory of a Markov Chain.} In particular, we observe a single trajectory X0,…,Xt,… of an unknown, symmetric, and finite state Markov Chain M. We do not control the starting state X0, and we cannot restart the chain. Given our single trajectory, the goal is to test whether M is identical to a model Markov Chain M′, or far from it under an appropriate notion of difference. We propose a measure of difference between two Markov chains, motivated by the early work of Kazakos [78], which captures the scaling behavior of the total variation distance between trajectories sampled from the Markov chains as the length of these trajectories grows. We provide efficient testers and information-theoretic lower bounds for testing identity of symmetric Markov chains under our proposed measure of difference, which are tight up to logarithmic factors if the hitting times of the model chain M′ is O~(n) in the size of the state space n. 

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3. Asymptotics of quasi-stationary distributions of small noise stochastic dynamical systems in unbounded domains

   https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2021.20  

   Budhiraja, Amarjit ; Fraiman, Nicolas ; Waterbury, Adam ( March 2022 , Advances in Applied Probability)

   Abstract We consider a collection of Markov chains that model the evolution of multitype biological populations. The state space of the chains is the positive orthant, and the boundary of the orthant is the absorbing state for the Markov chain and represents the extinction states of different population types. We are interested in the long-term behavior of the Markov chain away from extinction, under a small noise scaling. Under this scaling, the trajectory of the Markov process over any compact interval converges in distribution to the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) evolving in the positive orthant. We study the asymptotic behavior of the quasi-stationary distributions (QSD) in this scaling regime. Our main result shows that, under conditions, the limit points of the QSD are supported on the union of interior attractors of the flow determined by the ODE. We also give lower bounds on expected extinction times which scale exponentially with the system size. Results of this type when the deterministic dynamical system obtained under the scaling limit is given by a discrete-time evolution equation and the dynamics are essentially in a compact space (namely, the one-step map is a bounded function) have been studied by Faure and Schreiber (2014). Our results extend these to a setting of an unbounded state space and continuous-time dynamics. The proofs rely on uniform large deviation results for small noise stochastic dynamical systems and methods from the theory of continuous-time dynamical systems. In general, QSD for Markov chains with absorbing states and unbounded state spaces may not exist. We study one basic family of binomial-Poisson models in the positive orthant where one can use Lyapunov function methods to establish existence of QSD and also to argue the tightness of the QSD of the scaled sequence of Markov chains. The results from the first part are then used to characterize the support of limit points of this sequence of QSD. 

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4. Adaptive Experimental Design with Temporal Interference: A Maximum Likelihood Approach

   Glynn, Peter W ; Johari, Ramesh ; Rasouli, Mohammad ( January 2020 , Advances in neural information processing systems)

   Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy (e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site). Standard experimental approaches to this problem are biased (due to temporal interference between the policies), and not sample efficient. We study optimal experimental design for this setting. We view testing the two policies as the problem of estimating the steady state difference in reward between two unknown Markov chains (i.e., policies). We assume estimation of the steady state reward for each chain proceeds via nonparametric maximum likelihood, and search for consistent (i.e., asymptotically unbiased) experimental designs that are efficient (i.e., asymptotically minimum variance). Characterizing such designs is equivalent to a Markov decision problem with a minimum variance objective; such problems generally do not admit tractable solutions. Remarkably, in our setting, using a novel application of classical martingale analysis of Markov chains via Poisson's equation, we characterize efficient designs via a succinct convex optimization problem. We use this characterization to propose a consistent, efficient online experimental design that adaptively samples the two Markov chains. 

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5. Mixing time for Markov chain on linear extensions

   Rhodes, John ; Schilling, Anne ( January 2021 , Séminaire lotharingien de combinatoire)

   We provide a general framework for computing mixing times of finite Markov chains when its minimal ideal is left zero. Our analysis is based on combining results by Brown and Diaconis with our previous work on stationary distributions of finite Markov chains. We introduce a new Markov chain on linear extensions of a poset with n vertices, which is a variant of the promotion Markov chain of Ayyer, Klee and the last author, and show that it has a mixing time O(n log n). 

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