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1. Archaeological Central American maize genomes suggest ancient gene flow from South America

   Kistler, L; Thakar, H; VanDerwarker, A; Domic, A; Bergstrom, A; George, R; Harper, T; Allaby, R; Hirth, K; Kennett, D. (January 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America)

   null (Ed.)

   Maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) domestication began in southwestern Mexico ~9,000 calendar years before present (cal. BP) and humans dispersed this important grain to South America by at least 7000 cal. BP as a partial domesticate. South America served as a secondary improvement center where the domestication syndrome became fixed and new lineages emerged in parallel with similar processes in Mesoamerica. Later, Indigenous cultivators carried a second major wave of maize southward from Mesoamerica, but it is unclear whether the deeply divergent maize lineages underwent any subsequent gene flow between these regions. Here we report ancient maize genomes (2,300-1,900 cal. BP) from El Gigante rock-shelter, Honduras, that are closely related to ancient and modern maize from South America. Our findings suggest that genetic material from long-divergent South American maize was reintroduced to Central America. Direct radiocarbon dates and cob morphological data from the rock-shelter suggest that more productive maize varieties developed between 4,300 and 2,500 cal BP. We hypothesize that the hybridization of South and Central American maize may have been a source of genetic diversity and hybrid vigor as maize was becoming a staple grain in Central- and Meso- America. 

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2. Volatility and the Gains From Trade

   https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14411  

   Allen, Treb; Atkin, David (January 2022, Econometrica)

   Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second‐moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro‐data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted their production toward crops with less volatile yields, especially so for those with poor access to risk mitigating technologies such as banks. We then characterize how volatility affects farmers' crop allocation using a portfolio choice framework where returns are determined in general equilibrium by a many‐location, many‐good Ricardian trade model with flexible trade costs. Finally, we structurally estimate the model—recovering farmers' risk‐return preferences from the gradient of the mean‐variance frontier at their observed crop choices—to quantify the second‐moment effects of trade. The simultaneous expansion of both the highway and rural bank networks increased the mean and the variance of farmer real income, with the first‐moment effect dominating such that expected welfare rose 4.4%. But had rural bank access remained unchanged, welfare gains would have been only half as great, as risk mitigating technologies allowed farmers to take advantage of higher‐risk higher‐return allocations. 

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3. The Lake Paravani archive – a contribution to the late Quaternary landscape evolution of the Lesser Caucasus (Georgia)

   https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12669  

   Gademann, Daniel; Ustiashvili, Nino; Adikashvili, Luka; Navrozashvili, Levan; Erb‐Satullo, Nathaniel; van_der_Meij, W Marijn; Kirkitadze, Giorgi; Koff, Tiiu; Elashvili, Mikheil; Brückner, Helmut; et al (July 2024, Boreas)

   Lake Paravani, located on the volcanic Javakheti Plateau in the central part of the Lesser Caucasus at 2073 m a.s.l., forms a unique geo‐bio‐archive for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions in this remote region. Based on sediment cores from the southwestern part of the lake we expand the existing palynological and sedimentological records beyond the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For the first time, it is possible to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment in this part of the Lesser Caucasus back toc.28 cal. ka BP. Our study shows that until 16 cal. ka BP glacial conditions dominated (Phase I) in the region; there is, however, proof that the lake already existed during the LGM. In the following transitional Phase II from 16 until 6 cal. ka BP, cold and arid conditions with sparse steppe vegetation and a lowered lake level prevailed. Around 10 cal. ka BP, tree pollen started to expand while herbaceous pollen, especially Chenopodiaceae, declined. In Phase III, since 6 cal. ka BP, mixed forest probably represented the Holocene climatic optimum. Fluctuating lake levels indicate shifting climatic conditions. The minor changes of arboreal pollen hin the uppermost part of Phase II may be an indication of human activity. The more humid, vegetation‐rich environment and mild climate around 4.5–2 cal. ka BP correlate with the expansion of the Late Bronze Age settlements in this area (from ~3.5 cal. ka BP/~1.5 ka BC). The proliferation of sites on the plateau, along with even higher‐altitude sites possibly dating to the same period, may indicate that this climate amelioration played an important role in enabling more sustained human occupation. The results extend the record on Lake Paravani by several millennia beyond the LGM and complement the palaeo‐lake reconstructions of the wider region, e.g. at Lake Van (Türkiye) or Lake Sevan (Armenia). 

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4. South-to-north migration preceded the advent of intensive farming in the Maya region

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29158-y  

   Kennett, Douglas J.; Lipson, Mark; Prufer, Keith M.; Mora-Marín, David; George, Richard J.; Rohland, Nadin; Robinson, Mark; Trask, Willa R.; Edgar, Heather H.; Hill, Ethan C.; et al (December 2022, Nature Communications)

   Abstract The genetic prehistory of human populations in Central America is largely unexplored leaving an important gap in our knowledge of the global expansion of humans. We report genome-wide ancient DNA data for a transect of twenty individuals from two Belize rock-shelters dating between 9,600-3,700 calibrated radiocarbon years before present (cal. BP). The oldest individuals (9,600-7,300 cal. BP) descend from an Early Holocene Native American lineage with only distant relatedness to present-day Mesoamericans, including Mayan-speaking populations. After ~5,600 cal. BP a previously unknown human dispersal from the south made a major demographic impact on the region, contributing more than 50% of the ancestry of all later individuals. This new ancestry derived from a source related to present-day Chibchan speakers living from Costa Rica to Colombia. Its arrival corresponds to the first clear evidence for forest clearing and maize horticulture in what later became the Maya region. 

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5. Fine-Scale (10 m) Dynamics of Smallholder Farming through COVID-19 in Eastern Thailand

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16061035  

   Chen, Gang; Hammelman, Colleen; Anantsuksomsri, Sutee; Tontisirin, Nij; Todd, Amelia R.; Hicks, William W.; Robinson, Harris M.; Calloway, Miles G.; Bell, Grace M.; Kinsey, John E. (March 2024, Remote Sensing)

   This study aims to understand the spatiotemporal changes in patterns of tropical crop cultivation in Eastern Thailand, encompassing the periods before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our approach involved assessing the efficacy of high-resolution (10 m) Sentinel-2 dense image time series for mapping smallholder farmlands. We integrated harmonic regression and random forest to map a diverse array of tropical crop types between summer 2017 and summer 2023, including durian, rice, rubber, eucalyptus, oil palm, pineapple, sugarcane, cassava, mangosteen, coconut, and other crops. The results revealed an overall mapping accuracy of 85.6%, with several crop types exceeding 90%. High-resolution imagery demonstrated particular effectiveness in situations involving intercropping, a popular practice of simultaneously growing two or more plant species in the same patch of land. However, we observed overestimation in the majority of the studied cash crops, primarily those located in young plantations with open tree canopies and grass-covered ground surfaces. The adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were observed in specific labor-intensive crops, including rubber and durian, but were limited to the short term. No discernible impact was noted across the entirety of the study timeframe. In comparison, financial gain and climate change appeared to be more pivotal in influencing farmers’ decisions regarding crop cultivation. Traditionally dominant crops such as rice and oil palm have witnessed a discernible decline in cultivation, reflecting a decade-long trend of price drops preceding the pandemic. Conversely, Thai durian has seen a significant upswing even over the pandemic, which ironically served as a catalyst prompting Thai farmers to adopt e-commerce to meet the surging demand, particularly from China. 

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