More Like this

1. Predicting climate change impacts on critical fisheries species in Fijian marine systems and its implications for protected area spatial planning

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13709  

   Lawson, Katherine N. ; Lang, Karina M. ; Rabaiotti, Daniella ; Drew, Joshua ( August 2023 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Spatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in 100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action. Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational, habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji.

   The Republic of Fiji.

   We develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions.

   We found that mangrove suitability is projected to decrease along the Coral Coast and increase northward towards the Yasawa Islands due to precipitation changes. The response of seagrass meadows was predicted to be inconsistent and dependent on the climate scenario. Meanwhile, suitability for coral reefs was not predicted to decline significantly overall. The mangrove crabScylla serrata, an important resource for fisherwomen in Fiji, is projected to increase in habitat suitability while economically important sea cucumber species will have highly variable responses to climate change.

   Species distribution models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area designations should consider the future distribution of species to maximize benefits to those taxa.

    

   more » « less
2. The compounding consequences of wildfire and climate change for a high‐elevation wildflower ( Saxifraga austromontana )

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13441  

   Bloom, Trevor D. S. ; Flower, Aquila ; Medler, Michael ; DeChaine, Eric G. ( October 2018 , Journal of Biogeography)

   High‐elevation plants are disproportionally affected by climate change. As temperatures rise, the amount of available alpine habitat in the Rocky Mountains will decrease resulting in potential local extinctions of plant species. In addition to the direct effects of climate‐driven habitat loss, alpine plants must also respond to indirect effects, such as changes in disturbance regimes. One notable shift is the increase of wildfire frequency in regions where fire was previously rare or absent, including the alpine. We hypothesized that direct climatic changes compounded with increased wildfire frequency will reduce the future suitable habitat of high‐elevation plants more than if climate was considered alone.

   Rocky Mountain Floristic Region, western North America.

   Saxifraga austromontana(Saxifragaceae), a wildflower endemic to high elevations of the Rocky Mountain Floristic Region.

   Our approach integrated historical herbarium records, field surveys, remote sensing, species distribution models, historic wildfire data, and predictive models.

   Our results indicate wildfire has significantly reduced the abundance and increased the likelihood of extirpation forS. austromontana. Increased fire frequency compounded with direct climatic changes will likely reduce the range of the species by approximately 43% by 2050 compared to 38% due to climate alone, under a moderateCO₂emissions scenario. The influence of wildfire varies regionally. For instance, the Middle Rockies will likely lose 74% of its suitable habitat of which 16% may be lost due to fire, while other regions, such as the northern range, will be less negatively affected by direct and indirect effects.

   Our evidence that increased wildfire frequency will compound the impacts of climate change on alpine taxa in North America led to the development of a new, general hypothesis on the fundamental interaction between direct and indirect effects of climate change on species range reductions.

    

   more » « less
3. The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7735  

   Nottingham, Sir ; Pelletier, Tara A. ( June 2021 , Ecology and Evolution)

   Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species ofPlethodonin the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.

   Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).

   WesternPlethodonsalamanders.

   Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.

   The distribution of westernPlethodonsalamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.

   While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades ofPlethodonspecies are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution ofPlethodonspecies.

    

   more » « less
4. Mapping current and future thermal limits to suitability for malaria transmission by the invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04531-4  

   Ryan, Sadie J. ; Lippi, Catherine A. ; Villena, Oswaldo C. ; Singh, Aspen ; Murdock, Courtney C. ; Johnson, Leah R. ( March 2023 , Malaria Journal)

   Anopheles stephensiis a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of bothPlasmodium falciparumandPlasmodium vivaxmalaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics ofAn.stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk.

   In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission byAn.stephensiwere created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations.

   Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability withAn.stephensipresence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for bothP.falciparumandP.vivaxtransmission potential.

   Understanding the potential suitability forAn.stephensitransmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.

    

   more » « less
5. Estimating the distribution of Oryzomys palustris , a potential key host in expanding rickettsial tick‐borne disease risk

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4445  

   Lippi, Catherine A. ; Canfield, Samuel ; Espada, Christina ; Gaff, Holly D. ; Ryan, Sadie J. ( March 2023 , Ecosphere)

   Increasingly, geographic approaches to assessing the risk of tick‐borne diseases are being used to inform public health decision‐making and surveillance efforts. The distributions of key tick species of medical importance are often modeled as a function of environmental factors, using niche modeling approaches to capture habitat suitability. However, this is often disconnected from the potential distribution of key host species, which may play an important role in the actual transmission cycle and risk potential in expanding tick‐borne disease risk. Using species distribution modeling, we explore the potential geographic range ofOryzomys palustris, the marsh rice rat, which has been implicated as a potential reservoir host ofRickettsia parkeri, a pathogen transmitted by the Gulf Coast tick (Amblyomma maculatum) in the southeastern United States. Due to recent taxonomic reclassification ofO. palustrissubspecies, we reclassified geolocated collections records into the newer clade definitions. We modeled the distribution of the two updated clades in the region, establishing for the first time, range maps and distributions of these two clades. The predicted distribution of both clades indicates a largely Gulf and southeastern coastal distribution. Estimated suitable habitat forO. palustrisextends into the southern portion of the Mid‐Atlantic region, with a discontinuous, limited area of suitability in coastal California. Broader distribution predictions suggest potential incursions along the Mississippi River. We found considerable overlap of predictedO. palustrisranges with the distribution ofA. maculatum, indicating the potential need for extended surveillance efforts in those overlapping areas and attention to the role of hosts in transmission cycles.

    

   more » « less