Within the contiguous USA, Florida is unique in having tropical and subtropical climates, a great abundance and diversity of mosquito vectors, and high rates of human travel. These factors contribute to the state being the national ground zero for exotic mosquito-borne diseases, as evidenced by local transmission of viruses spread by Aedes aegypti, including outbreaks of dengue in 2022 and Zika in 2016. Because of limited treatment options, integrated vector management is a key part of mitigating these arboviruses. Practical knowledge of when and where mosquito populations of interest exist is critical for surveillance and control efforts, and habitat predictions at various geographic scales typically rely on ecological niche modeling. However, most of these models, usually created in partnership with academic institutions, demand resources that otherwise may be too time-demanding or difficult for mosquito control programs to replicate and use effectively. Such resources may include intensive computational requirements, high spatiotemporal resolutions of data not regularly available, and/or expert knowledge of statistical analysis. Therefore, our study aims to partner with mosquito control agencies in generating operationally useful mosquito abundance models. Given the increasing threat of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Florida, our analytic approach targets recent Ae. aegypti abundance in the Tampa Bay area. We investigate explanatory variables that: 1) are publicly available, 2) require little to no preprocessing for use, and 3) are known factors associated with Ae. aegypti ecology. Out of our 4 final models, none required more than 5 out of the 36 predictors assessed (13.9%). Similar to previous literature, the strongest predictors were consistently 3- and 4-wk temperature and precipitation lags, followed closely by 1 of 2 environmental predictors: land use/land cover or normalized difference vegetation index. Surprisingly, 3 of our 4 final models included one or more socioeconomic or demographic predictors. In general, larger sample sizes of trap collections and/or citizen science observations should result in greater confidence in model predictions and validation. However, given disparities in trap collections across jurisdictions, individual county models rather than a multicounty conglomerate model would likely yield stronger model fits. Ultimately, we hope that the results of our assessment will enable more accurate and precise mosquito surveillance and control of Ae. aegypti in Florida and beyond.
Estimations of Fine-Scale Species Distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Eastern Florida
Abstract Many species distribution maps indicate the ranges of Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) overlap in Florida despite the well-documented range reduction of Ae. aegypti. Within the last 30 yr, competitive displacement of Ae. aegypti by Ae. albopictus has resulted in partial spatial segregation of the two species, with Ae. aegypti persisting primarily in urban refugia. We modeled fine-scale distributions of both species, with the goal of capturing the outcome of interspecific competition across space by building habitat suitability maps. We empirically parameterized models by sampling 59 sites in south and central Florida over time and incorporated climatic, landscape, and human population data to identify predictors of habitat suitability for both species. Our results show human density, precipitation, and urban land cover drive Ae. aegypti habitat suitability, compared with exclusively climatic variables driving Ae. albopictus habitat suitability. Remotely sensed variables (macrohabitat) were more predictive than locally collected metrics (microhabitat), although recorded minimum daily temperature showed significant, inverse relationships with both species. We detected minor Aedes habitat segregation; some periurban areas that were highly suitable for Ae. albopictus were unsuitable for Ae. aegypti. Fine-scale empirical models like those presented here have the potential for precise risk assessment and the improvement of operational applications to control container-breeding Aedes mosquitoes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1754376
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10274869
- Editor(s):
- Hamer, Gabriel
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Medical Entomology
- Volume:
- 58
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0022-2585
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 699 to 707
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Yee, Donald (Ed.)Abstract Container Aedes mosquitoes are the most important vectors of human arboviruses (i.e., dengue, chikungunya, Zika, or yellow fever). Invasive and native container Aedes spp. potentially utilize natural and artificial containers in specific environments for oviposition. Several container Aedes spp. display ‘skip-oviposition’ behavior, which describes the distribution of eggs among multiple containers during a single gonotrophic cycle. In this study, we compared individual skip-oviposition behavior using identical eight-cup testing arenas with three container Aedes species: Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus), Aedes albopictus (Skuse), and Aedes triseriatus (Say). We applied the index of dispersion, an aggregation statistic, to individual mosquitoes’ oviposition patterns to assess skip-oviposition behavior. Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus utilized more cups and distributed eggs more evenly among cups than Ae. triseriatus under nutritionally enriched oviposition media (oak leaf infusion) conditions. When presented with a nutritionally unenriched (tap water) oviposition media, both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus increased egg spreading behavior. Aedes albopictus did not modify skip-oviposition behavior when reared and assessed under fall-like environmental conditions, which induce diapause egg production. This study indicates specific oviposition site conditions influence skip-oviposition behavior with ‘preferred’ sites receiving higher amounts of eggs from any given individual and ‘non-preferred’ sites receive a limited contribution of eggs. A further understanding of skip-oviposition behavior is needed to make the best use of autodissemination trap technology in which skip-ovipositing females spread a potent larvicide among oviposition sites within the environment.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjaa216
