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1. Quantifying energy use efficiency via maximum entropy production: A case study from longleaf pine ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-322  

   Wiesner, Susanne; Staudhammer, Christina L.; Stoy, Paul C.; Boring, Lindsay R.; Starr, Gregory (April 2019, Biogeosciences Discussions)

   Abstract. Global ecosystems vary in their function, and therefore resilience to disturbance, as a result of their location on Earth, structure, and anthropogenic legacy. Resilience can therefore be difficult to describe solely based on energy partitioning, as it fails to effectively describe how ecosystems use available resources, such as soil moisture. Maximum entropy production (MEP) has been shown to be a better metric to describe these differences as it relates energy use efficiencies of ecosystems to the availability of resources. We studied three sites in a longleaf pine ecosystem with varying levels of anthropogenic legacy and biodiversity, all of which were exposed to extreme drought. We quantified their resilience from radiative, metabolic and overall MEP ratios. Sites with anthropogenic legacy had ~10% lower overall and metabolic energy use efficiency compared to more biodiverse sites. This resulted in lower resilience and a delay in recovery from drought by ~1 year. Additionally, a set of entropy ratios to determine metabolic and overall energy use efficiency explained more clearly site-specific ecosystem function, whereas the radiative entropy budget gave more insights about structural complexities at the sites. Our study provides foundational evidence of how MEP can be used to determine resiliency across ecosystems globally. 

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2. Using Metabolic Energy Density Metrics to Understand Differences in Ecosystem Function During Drought

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005335  

   Wiesner, Susanne; Stoy, Paul C.; Staudhammer, Christina L.; Starr, Gregory (February 2020, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences)

   Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems obtain energy in the form of carbon‐containing molecules. Quantifying energy acquisition and dissipation throughout an ecosystem may be useful for describing their resistance and resilience to disturbances. Three longleaf pine savannas with different vegetation composition—a result of variation in soil moisture and land use legacy—were used as a case study to test energy‐based metrics of ecosystem metabolic function. Available energy from gross ecosystem exchange of CO₂and its dissipation into metabolic energy density (E_M) and energy storage were used to identify differences in drought recovery over an 8‐year period. Sites with higher plant functional diversity in the understory stored more energy and lowered their E_Mby ~20% when adapting to drought. In contrast, the site with greater abundance of woody understory and overstory species relied on stored energy twice as often as the more diverse sites. The absence of native understory species, due to anthropogenic legacy, prolonged ecosystem‐scale drought recovery by 1 year. This study provides the tools to understand differences in site metabolic energy dynamics and has the potential to identify site characteristics that indicate greater vulnerability to disturbances. Metabolic energy density can be applied to any global ecosystem and provides a first step to describe coupled carbon and energy allocation in ecosystems, which may be used to further refine ecological theory and its management implications. 

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3. Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019  

   Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Yeager, Stephen G.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew C. (January 2019, Earth System Dynamics)

   Abstract. Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) impactthe global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest thatthese variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decadein advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-termpredictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO₂ flux on global andregional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadalforecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential topredict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO₂flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of theforecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO₂ flux evolution. Thispotential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge ofvariations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with thelongest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean andthe northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO₂ fluxvariations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partialpressure of CO₂, which itself is a function of predictability in surfaceocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potentialpredictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated bythe moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with anobservationally based CO₂ flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggestthat year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to bepredicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–seaCO₂ flux in the near future. 

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4. Late Miocene to Holocene high-resolution eastern equatorial Pacific carbonate records: stratigraphy linked by dissolution and paleoproductivity

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1715-2019  

   Lyle, Mitchell; Drury, Anna Joy; Tian, Jun; Wilkens, Roy; Westerhold, Thomas (January 2019, Climate of the Past)

   Abstract. Coherent variation in CaCO₃ burial is a feature ofthe Cenozoic eastern equatorial Pacific. Nevertheless, there has been along-standing ambiguity in whether changes in CaCO₃ dissolution or changesin equatorial primary production might cause the variability. Sinceproductivity and dissolution leave distinctive regional signals, a regionalsynthesis of data using updated age models and high-resolution stratigraphiccorrelation is an important constraint to distinguish between dissolutionand production as factors that cause low CaCO₃. Furthermore, the newchronostratigraphy is an important foundation for future paleoceanographicstudies. The ability to distinguish between primary production anddissolution is also important to establish a regional carbonate compensationdepth (CCD). We report late Miocene to Holocene time series of XRF-derived (X-rayfluorescence) bulk sediment composition and mass accumulation rates (MARs) from easternequatorial Pacific Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) sites U1335,U1337, and U1338 and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 849, and we also report bulk-density-derived CaCO₃ MARs at ODP sites 848, 850, and 851. We usephysical properties, XRF bulk chemical scans, and images along withavailable chronostratigraphy to intercorrelate records in depth space. Wethen apply a new equatorial Pacific age model to create correlated agerecords for the last 8 Myr with resolutions of 1–2 kyr. Large magnitudechanges in CaCO₃ and bio-SiO₂ (biogenic opal) MARs occurred withinthat time period but clay deposition has remained relatively constant,indicating that changes in Fe deposition from dust is only a secondaryfeedback to equatorial productivity. Because clay deposition is relativelyconstant, ratios of CaCO₃ % or biogenic SiO₂ % to clayemulate changes in biogenic MAR. We define five major Pliocene–Pleistocene low CaCO₃ % (PPLC) intervalssince 5.3 Ma. Two were caused primarily by high bio-SiO₂ burial thatdiluted CaCO₃ (PPLC-2, 1685–2135 ka, and PPLC-5, 4465–4737 ka),while three were caused by enhanced dissolution of CaCO₃ (PPLC-1, 51–402 ka, PPLC-3, 2248–2684 ka, and PPLC-4, 2915–4093 ka). Regional patterns ofCaCO₃ % minima can distinguish between low CaCO₃ caused by highdiatom bio-SiO₂ dilution versus lows caused by high CaCO₃dissolution. CaCO₃ dissolution can be confirmed through scanning XRFmeasurements of Ba. High diatom production causes lowest CaCO₃ %within the equatorial high productivity zone, while higher dissolutioncauses lowest CaCO₃ percent at higher latitudes where CaCO₃ production islower. The two diatom production intervals, PPLC-2 and PPLC-5, havedifferent geographic footprints from each other because of regional changesin eastern Pacific nutrient storage after the closure of the Central American Seaway.Because of the regional variability in carbonate production andsedimentation, the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) approach is onlyuseful to examine large changes in CaCO₃ dissolution. 

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5. Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions

   https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-123-2018  

   Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Miller, Charles E. (January 2018, The Cryosphere)

   Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely tooffset increased vegetation C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL)terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback mayact as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedbackmay be difficult. The formation of talik, a subsurface layer of perenniallythawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration,ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems fromlong-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understand andcharacterize mechanistic links between talik, permafrost thaw, andrespiration of deep soil C to detect and quantify the permafrost C feedback.Here, we use the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, a permafrost andbiogeochemistry model, in comparison to long-term deep borehole data alongNorth American and Siberian transects, to investigate thaw-driven C sourcesin NHL (>55^∘N) from 2000 to 2300. Widespread talik at depth isprojected across most of the NHL permafrost region(14million km²) by 2300, 6.2million km² of which isprojected to become a long-term C source, emitting 10Pg C by 2100,50Pg C by 2200, and 120Pg C by 2300, with few signs ofslowing. Roughly half of the projected C source region is in predominantlywarm sub-Arctic permafrost following talik onset. This region emits only20Pg C by 2300, but the CLM4.5 estimate may be biased low by notaccounting for deep C in yedoma. Accelerated decomposition of deep soilC following talik onset shifts the ecosystem C balance away from surfacedominant processes (photosynthesis and litter respiration), butsink-to-source transition dates are delayed by 20–200 years by highecosystem productivity, such that talik peaks early (∼2050s, although boreholedata suggest sooner) and C source transition peaks late(∼2150–2200). The remaining C source region in cold northern Arcticpermafrost, which shifts to a net source early (late 21st century), emits5 times more C (95Pg C) by 2300, and prior to talik formation dueto the high decomposition rates of shallow, young C in organic-rich soilscoupled with low productivity. Our results provide important clues signalingimminent talik onset and C source transition, including (1) late cold-season(January–February) soil warming at depth (∼2m),(2) increasing cold-season emissions (November–April), and (3) enhancedrespiration of deep, old C in warm permafrost and young, shallow C in organic-rich cold permafrost soils. Our results suggest a mosaic of processes thatgovern carbon source-to-sink transitions at high latitudes and emphasize theurgency of monitoring soil thermal profiles, organic C age and content, cold-season CO₂ emissions, andatmospheric ¹⁴CO₂ as key indicatorsof the permafrost C feedback. 

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