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1. Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Mechanical Ventilation Treatment: A Conformal Deep Q-Learning Framework

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v39i27.35013  

   Eghbali, Niloufar; Alhanai, Tuka; Ghassemi, Mohammad M (April 2025, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   Mechanical Ventilation (MV) is a critical life-support intervention in intensive care units (ICUs). However, optimal ventilator settings are challenging to determine because of the complexity of balancing patient-specific physiological needs with the risks of adverse outcomes that impact morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. This study introduces ConformalDQN, a novel distribution-free conformal deep Q-learning approach for optimizing mechanical ventilation in intensive care units. By integrating conformal prediction with deep reinforcement learning, our method provides reliable uncertainty quantification, addressing the challenges of Q-value overestimation and out-of-distribution actions in offline settings.We trained and evaluated our model using ICU patient records from the MIMIC-IV database. ConformalDQN extends the Double DQN architecture with a conformal predictor and employs a composite loss function that balances Q-learning with well-calibrated probability estimation. This enables uncertainty-aware action selection, allowing the model to avoid potentially harmful actions in unfamiliar states and handle distribution shifts by being more conservative in out-of-distribution scenarios.Evaluation against baseline models, including physician policies, policy constraint methods, and behavior cloning, demonstrates that ConformalDQN consistently makes recommendations within clinically safe and relevant ranges, outperforming other methods by increasing the 90-day survival rate. Notably, our approach provides an interpretable measure of confidence in its decisions, which is crucial for clinical adoption and potential human-in-the-loop implementations. 

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2. Confounding-Robust Policy Improvement

   Kallus, Nathan; Zhou, Angela (January 2018, Advances in neural information processing systems)

   We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding in the data-generating process. Unlike previous approaches that assume unconfoundedness, i.e., no unobserved confounders affected both treatment assignment and outcomes, we calibrate policy learning for realistic violations of this unverifiable assumption with uncertainty sets motivated by sensitivity analysis in causal inference. Our framework for confounding-robust policy improvement optimizes the minimax regret of a candidate policy against a baseline or reference "status quo" policy, over an uncertainty set around nominal propensity weights. We prove that if the uncertainty set is well-specified, robust policy learning can do no worse than the baseline, and only improve if the data supports it. We characterize the adversarial subproblem and use efficient algorithmic solutions to optimize over parametrized spaces of decision policies such as logistic treatment assignment. We assess our methods on synthetic data and a large clinical trial, demonstrating that confounded selection can hinder policy learning and lead to unwarranted harm, while our robust approach guarantees safety and focuses on well-evidenced improvement. 

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3. POTEC: Off-Policy Contextual Bandits for Large Action Spaces via Policy Decomposition

   Saito, Yuta; Yao, Yihan; Joachims, Thorsten (June 2025, International Conference on Representation Learning (ICLR))

   We study off-policy learning (OPL) of contextual bandit policies in large discrete action spaces where existing methods – most of which rely crucially on reward-regression models or importance-weighted policy gradients – fail due to excessive bias or variance. To overcome these issues in OPL, we propose a novel two-stage algorithm, called Policy Optimization via Two-Stage Policy Decomposition (POTEC). It leverages clustering in the action space and learns two different policies via policy- and regression-based approaches, respectively. In particular, we derive a novel low-variance gradient estimator that enables to learn a first-stage policy for cluster selection efficiently via a policy-based approach. To select a specific action within the cluster sampled by the first-stage policy, POTEC uses a second-stage policy derived from a regression-based approach within each cluster. We show that a local correctness condition, which only requires that the regression model preserves the relative expected reward differences of the actions within each cluster, ensures that our policy-gradient estimator is unbiased and the second-stage policy is optimal. We also show that POTEC provides a strict generalization of policyand regression-based approaches and their associated assumptions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that POTEC provides substantial improvements in OPL effectiveness particularly in large and structured action spaces. 

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4. DART: Noise Injection for Robust Imitation Learning

   Laskey, M.; Lee, J.; Fox, R.; Dragan, A.; Goldberg, K. (January 2017, CoRL)

   One approach to Imitation Learning is Behavior Cloning, in which a robot observes a supervisor and infers a control policy. A known problem with this “off-policy” approach is that the robot’s errors compound when drifting away from the supervisor’s demonstrations. On-policy, techniques alleviate this by iteratively collecting corrective actions for the current robot policy. However, these techniques can be tedious for human supervisors, add significant computation burden, and may visit dangerous states during training. We propose an off-policy approach that injects noise into the supervisor’s policy while demonstrating. This forces the supervisor to demonstrate how to recover from errors. We propose a new algorithm, DART (Disturbances for Augmenting Robot Trajectories), that collects demonstrations with injected noise, and optimizes the noise level to approximate the error of the robot’s trained policy during data collection. We compare DART with DAgger and Behavior Cloning in two domains: in simulation with an algorithmic supervisor on the MuJoCo tasks (Walker, Humanoid, Hopper, Half-Cheetah) and in physical experiments with human supervisors training a Toyota HSR robot to perform grasping in clutter. For high dimensional tasks like Humanoid, DART can be up to 3x faster in computation time and only decreases the supervisor’s cumulative reward by 5% during training, whereas DAgger executes policies that have 80% less cumulative reward than the supervisor. On the grasping in clutter task, DART obtains on average a 62% performance increase over Behavior Cloning. 

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5. Eventual Discounting Temporal Logic Counterfactual Experience Replay

   Cameron Voloshin; Abhinav Verma; Yisong Yue (January 2023, arXivorg)

   Linear temporal logic (LTL) offers a simplified way of specifying tasks for policy optimization that may otherwise be difficult to describe with scalar reward functions. However, the standard RL framework can be too myopic to find maximally LTL satisfying policies. This paper makes two contributions. First, we develop a new value-function based proxy, using a technique we call eventual discounting, under which one can find policies that satisfy the LTL specification with highest achievable probability. Second, we develop a new experience replay method for generating off-policy data from on-policy rollouts via counterfactual reasoning on different ways of satisfying the LTL specification. Our experiments, conducted in both discrete and continuous state-action spaces, confirm the effectiveness of our counterfactual experience replay approach. 

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