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Physics-based dynamic rupture simulations are valuable for assessing the seismic hazard in the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), but require assumptions about fault stress and material properties. Geodetic slip deficit models (SDMs) may provide information about the initial stresses governing megathrust earthquake dynamics. We present a unified workflow linking SDMs to 3D dynamic rupture simulations, and 22 rupture scenarios to unravel the dynamic trade-offs of assumptions for SDMs, rigidity, and pore fluid pressure. We find that margin-wide rupture, an earthquake that ruptures the entire length of the plate boundary, requires a large slip deficit in the central CSZ. Comparisons between Gaussian and smoother, shallow-coupled SDMs show significant differences in stress distributions and rupture dynamics. Variations in depth-dependent rigidity cause competing effects, particularly in the near-trench region. Higher overall rigidity can increase fault slip but also result in lower initial shear stresses, inhibiting slip. The state of pore fluid pressure is crucial in balancing SDM-informed initial shear stresses with realistic dynamic rupture processes, especially assuming small recurrence time scaling factors. This study highlights the importance of self-consistent assumptions for rigidity and initial stresses between geodetic, structural, and dynamic rupture models, providing a foundation for future simulations of ground motions and tsunami generation.
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Stress change before and after the 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake
Megathrust systems hold important clues for our understanding of long- and short-term plate boundary dynamics, and the 2011 M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake provides a data-rich case in point. Here, we show that the F-net moment tensor catalog indicates systematic changes in crustal stress in the years leading up to the M9, due to the co-seismic effect, and for the last few years due to viscous relaxation. We explore the match between imaged stress change and the perturbations that are expected from 3-D, mechanical models of the visco-elastic relaxation and afterslip effects of the M9. While these models were constructed based on geodetic and structural seismology constraints alone, they match many characteristics of the seismicity-inferred stress change. This provides additional confidence in the modeling approach, and new clues for our understanding of plate boundary dynamics for the Japan trench. The success of deterministic approaches for exploring crustal stress change also implies that joint inversions using stress from focal mechanisms and geodetic constraints may be feasible. Such future efforts should provide key insights into time-dependent seismic hazard including earthquake triggering scenarios.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1722650
- PAR ID:
- 10104323
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth and planetary science letters
- Volume:
- 504
- ISSN:
- 0012-821X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 174-184
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2018.09.035
