Heating buildings using fossil fuels such as natural gas, propane and oil makes up a significant proportion of the aggregate carbon emissions every year. Because of this, there is a strong interest in decarbonizing residential heating systems using new technologies such as electric heat pumps. In this paper, we conduct a data-driven optimization study to analyze the potential of replacing gas heating with electric heat pumps to reduce CO 2 emission in a city-wide distribution grid. We conduct an in-depth analysis of gas consumption in the city and the resulting carbon emissions. We then present a flexible multi-objective optimization (MOO) framework that optimizes carbon emission reduction while also maximizing other aspects of the energy transition such as carbon-efficiency, and minimizing energy inefficiency in buildings. Our results show that replacing gas with electric heat pumps has the potential to cut carbon emissions by up to 81%. We also show that optimizing for other aspects such as carbon-efficiency and energy inefficiency introduces tradeoffs with carbon emission reduction that must be considered during transition. Finally, we present a detailed analysis of the implication of proposed transition strategies on the household energy consumption and utility bills, electric grid upgrades, and decarbonization policies. We compute the additional energy demand from electric heat pumps at the household as well as the transformer level and discuss how our results can inform decarbonization policies at city scale.
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A Comparison of Seattle’s Building Tune-up Process
The Building Tune-up process has been in incorporated into the mindset of building owners in Seattle. Every five years this process needs to be implemented for all buildings that are over 50,000 square feet. Boulder, Colorado, and New York City, New York, have had similar programs in place longer than Seattle has had its program. There are many similarities between all three programs in regards to lowering carbon emissions through building maintenance and upgrades. Each city has specific bench marking goals as per what size of the building and when their specific tune-up should occur. There are also similar concerns from both building owners in regards to the costs of building upgrades versus the benefits that align with improved building performance. Within all three cities, tenants also share similar concerns mostly about increased rent due to having these buildings be improved. Both Boulder, Colorado, and New York City, New York, despite population size or location, have seen dramatic carbon decreases due to their tune-up policies being in effect. This gives great promise that Seattle’s similar tune-up process will also yield positive results.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1800937
- PAR ID:
- 10111459
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Sustainable Development
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 1913-9063
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 123
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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