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1. Predicting the Evolution of Controlled Systems Modeled by Finite Markov Processes

   https://doi.org/10.1109/TR.2021.3067595  

   Li, Shuo ; Pozzi, Matteo ( April 2021 , IEEE Transactions on Reliability)

   null (Ed.)

   The operation and maintenance of infrastructure components and systems can be modeled as a Markov process, partially or fully observable. Information about the current condition can be summarized by the “inner” state of a finite state controller. When a control policy is assigned, the stochastic evolution of the system is completely described by a Markov transition function. This article applies finite state Markov chain analyses to identify relevant features of the time evolution of a controlled system. We focus on assessing if some critical conditions are reachable (or if some actions will ever be taken), in identifying the probability of these critical events occurring within a time period, their expected time of occurrence, their long-term frequency, and the probability that some events occur before others. We present analytical methods based on linear algebra to address these questions, discuss their computational complexity and the structure of the solution. The analyses can be performed after a policy is selected for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable MDP. Their outcomes depend on the selected policy and examining these outcomes can provide the decision makers with deeper understanding of the consequences of following that policy, and may also suggest revising it. 

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2. Steady-State Planning in Expected Reward Multichain MDPs

   https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.12611  

   Atia, George K. ; Beckus, Andre ; Alkhouri, Ismail ; Velasquez, Alvaro ( September 2021 , Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research)

   The planning domain has experienced increased interest in the formal synthesis of decision-making policies. This formal synthesis typically entails finding a policy which satisfies formal specifications in the form of some well-defined logic. While many such logics have been proposed with varying degrees of expressiveness and complexity in their capacity to capture desirable agent behavior, their value is limited when deriving decision-making policies which satisfy certain types of asymptotic behavior in general system models. In particular, we are interested in specifying constraints on the steady-state behavior of an agent, which captures the proportion of time an agent spends in each state as it interacts for an indefinite period of time with its environment. This is sometimes called the average or expected behavior of the agent and the associated planning problem is faced with significant challenges unless strong restrictions are imposed on the underlying model in terms of the connectivity of its graph structure. In this paper, we explore this steady-state planning problem that consists of deriving a decision-making policy for an agent such that constraints on its steady-state behavior are satisfied. A linear programming solution for the general case of multichain Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is proposed and we prove that optimal solutions to the proposed programs yield stationary policies with rigorous guarantees of behavior. 

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3. Wake-up radio-based data forwarding for green wireless networks

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comcom.2020.05.046  

   Koutsandria, G. ; DiValerio, V. ; Spenza, D. ; Basagni, S. ; Petrioli, C. ( April 2020 , Computer communications)

   Green wireless networks Wake-up radio Energy harvesting Routing Markov decision process Reinforcement learning 1. Introduction With 14.2 billions of connected things in 2019, over 41.6 billions expected by 2025, and a total spending on endpoints and services that will reach well over $1.1 trillion by the end of 2026, the Internet of Things (IoT) is poised to have a transformative impact on the way we live and on the way we work [1–3]. The vision of this ‘‘connected continuum’’ of objects and people, however, comes with a wide variety of challenges, especially for those IoT networks whose devices rely on some forms of depletable energy support. This has prompted research on hardware and software solutions aimed at decreasing the depen- dence of devices from ‘‘pre-packaged’’ energy provision (e.g., batteries), leading to devices capable of harvesting energy from the environment, and to networks – often called green wireless networks – whose lifetime is virtually infinite. Despite the promising advances of energy harvesting technologies, IoT devices are still doomed to run out of energy due to their inherent constraints on resources such as storage, processing and communica- tion, whose energy requirements often exceed what harvesting can provide. The communication circuitry of prevailing radio technology, especially, consumes relevant amount of energy even when in idle state, i.e., even when no transmissions or receptions occur. Even duty cycling, namely, operating with the radio in low energy consumption ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail address: koutsandria@di.uniroma1.it (G. Koutsandria). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.comcom.2020.05.046 (sleep) mode for pre-set amounts of time, has been shown to only mildly alleviate the problem of making IoT devices durable [4]. An effective answer to eliminate all possible forms of energy consumption that are not directly related to communication (e.g., idle listening) is provided by ultra low power radio triggering techniques, also known as wake-up radios [5,6]. Wake-up radio-based networks allow devices to remain in sleep mode by turning off their main radio when no communication is taking place. Devices continuously listen for a trigger on their wake-up radio, namely, for a wake-up sequence, to activate their main radio and participate to communication tasks. Therefore, devices wake up and turn their main radio on only when data communication is requested by a neighboring device. Further energy savings can be obtained by restricting the number of neighboring devices that wake up when triggered. This is obtained by allowing devices to wake up only when they receive specific wake-up sequences, which correspond to particular protocol requirements, including distance from the destina- tion, current energy status, residual energy, etc. This form of selective awakenings is called semantic addressing [7]. Use of low-power wake-up radio with semantic addressing has been shown to remarkably reduce the dominating energy costs of communication and idle listening of traditional radio networking [7–12]. This paper contributes to the research on enabling green wireless networks for long lasting IoT applications. Specifically, we introduce a ABSTRACT This paper presents G-WHARP, for Green Wake-up and HARvesting-based energy-Predictive forwarding, a wake-up radio-based forwarding strategy for wireless networks equipped with energy harvesting capabilities (green wireless networks). Following a learning-based approach, G-WHARP blends energy harvesting and wake-up radio technology to maximize energy efficiency and obtain superior network performance. Nodes autonomously decide on their forwarding availability based on a Markov Decision Process (MDP) that takes into account a variety of energy-related aspects, including the currently available energy and that harvestable in the foreseeable future. Solution of the MDP is provided by a computationally light heuristic based on a simple threshold policy, thus obtaining further computational energy savings. The performance of G-WHARP is evaluated via GreenCastalia simulations, where we accurately model wake-up radios, harvestable energy, and the computational power needed to solve the MDP. Key network and system parameters are varied, including the source of harvestable energy, the network density, wake-up radio data rate and data traffic. We also compare the performance of G-WHARP to that of two state-of-the-art data forwarding strategies, namely GreenRoutes and CTP-WUR. Results show that G-WHARP limits energy expenditures while achieving low end-to-end latency and high packet delivery ratio. Particularly, it consumes up to 34% and 59% less energy than CTP-WUR and GreenRoutes, respectively. 

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4. Double Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes

   Kallus, Nathan ; Uehara, Masatoshi ( January 2020 , Journal of machine learning research)

   Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. We consider for the first time the semiparametric efficiency limits of OPE in Markov decision processes (MDPs), where actions, rewards, and states are memoryless. We show existing OPE estimators may fail to be efficient in this setting. We develop a new estimator based on cross-fold estimation of q-functions and marginalized density ratios, which we term double reinforcement learning (DRL). We show that DRL is efficient when both components are estimated at fourth-root rates and is also doubly robust when only one component is consistent. We investigate these properties empirically and demonstrate the performance benefits due to harnessing memorylessness. 

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5. Towards optimal off-policy evaluation for reinforcement learning with marginalized importance sampling.

   Xie, T. ; Ma, Y. ; Wang, Y. X. ( January 2019 , Advances in neural information processing systems)

   Motivated by the many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) that require safe-policy iterations, we consider the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) — the problem of evaluating a new policy using the historical data ob- tained by different behavior policies — under the model of nonstationary episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with a long horizon and a large action space. Existing importance sampling (IS) methods often suffer from large variance that depends exponentially on the RL horizon H. To solve this problem, we consider a marginalized importance sampling (MIS) estimator that recursively estimates the state marginal distribution for the target policy at every step. MIS achieves a mean-squared error of [ ] where μ and π are the logging and target policies, dμt (st) and dπt (st) are the marginal distribution of the state at tth step, H is the horizon, n is the sample size and V π is the value function of the MDP under π. The result matches the t+1 Cramer-Rao lower bound in Jiang and Li [2016] up to a multiplicative factor of H. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first OPE estimation error bound with a polynomial dependence on H . Besides theory, we show empirical superiority of our method in time-varying, partially observable, and long-horizon RL environments. 

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