Abstract Recent ice-mass loss driven by warming along the Antarctic Peninsula has resulted in rapid changes in uplift rates across the region. Are such events only a function of recent warming? If not, does the Earth response to such events last long enough to be preserved in Holocene records of relative sea level (RSL), and thus have a bearing on global-scale glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models (e.g. ICE-6G)? Answering such questions in Antarctica is hindered by the scarcity of RSL reconstructions within the region. Here, a new RSL reconstruction for Antarctica is presented based on beach ridges from Joinville Island on the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that RSL has fallen 4.9 ± 0.58 m over the past 3100 yr, and that the island experienced a significant increase in the rate of RSL fall from 1540 ± 125 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. to 1320 ± 125 cal. yr B.P. This increase in the rate of RSL fall is likely due to the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to terrestrial ice-mass loss from the Antarctic Peninsula, similar to the Earth response experienced after ice-mass loss following acceleration of glaciers behind the collapsed Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 C.E. Additionally, slower rates of beach-ridge progradation from 695 ± 190 cal. yr B.P. to 235 ± 175 cal. yr B.P. potentially reflect erosion of beach ridges from a RSL rise induced by a local glacial advance. The rapid response of the Earth to minor ice-mass changes recorded in the RSL record further supports recent assertions of a more responsive Earth to glacial unloading and at time scales relevant for GIA of Holocene and Pleistocene sea levels. Thus, current continental and global GIA models may not accurately capture the ice-mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheets at decadal and centennial time scales.
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100 Years of Earth System Model Development
Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1643431
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10117180
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Meteorological Monographs
- Volume:
- 59
- ISSN:
- 0065-9401
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 12.1-12.66
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker‐than‐modern equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model‐data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO2doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state‐of‐art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi‐model, multi‐proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community‐led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.
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Abstract Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control subsea permafrost distribution and thickness, yet no permafrost model has accounted for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which deviates local sea level from the global mean due to changes in ice and ocean loading. Here we incorporate GIA into a pan-Arctic model of subsea permafrost over the last 400,000 years. Including GIA significantly reduces present-day subsea permafrost thickness, chiefly because of hydro-isostatic effects as well as deformation related to Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Additionally, we extend the simulation 1000 years into the future for emissions scenarios outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We find that subsea permafrost is preserved under a low emissions scenario but mostly disappears under a high emissions scenario.
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