skip to main content


Title: Optimal Selling Policies for Farmer Cooperatives

Sustainability and long‐term prosperity are chronic challenges in the agriculture sector of many countries. To address such challenges, farmer cooperatives are formed as an innovative approach to improve the livelihoods of millions of farmers around the world. Inspired by real‐life practice in the Kenya coffee industry, we study a class of stochastic and dynamic inventory models for storable agricultural products with random exogenous supply and price. For a variety of cost functions relevant in practice, we characterize the optimal selling policies to maximize the farmer cooperatives’ expected profit. We show that for concave inventory holding cost, thesell‐all‐or‐retain‐all(rR) (orsell‐all‐or‐retain‐all R) policies are optimal with (without) the fixed selling cost; for convex holding cost, thesell‐down‐to(Ss) (orsell‐down‐to s) policies are optimal with (without) the fixed selling cost. For the special case of linear holding cost, the optimal policy is acut‐off pricepolicy and we derive closed‐form expressions for the optimal policy and the optimal total discounted profit. We discuss the model extensions to include general stochastic harvest and price processes, selling/storage capacity limits, price‐dependent random demand with a spot market, and the flexibility of procurement from other producers, and then perform a numerical study to quantify the impact of the optimal solutions. Reconciling the theory with practice, useful insights and guidelines are provided to help farmer cooperatives make strategic selling decisions.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10119038
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
SAGE Publications
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Production and Operations Management
Volume:
28
Issue:
12
ISSN:
1059-1478
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 3060-3080
Size(s):
["p. 3060-3080"]
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. We consider the periodic review dynamic pricing and inventory control problem with fixed ordering cost. Demand is random and price dependent, and unsatisfied demand is backlogged. With complete demand information, the celebrated [Formula: see text] policy is proved to be optimal, where s and S are the reorder point and order-up-to level for ordering strategy, and [Formula: see text], a function of on-hand inventory level, characterizes the pricing strategy. In this paper, we consider incomplete demand information and develop online learning algorithms whose average profit approaches that of the optimal [Formula: see text] with a tight [Formula: see text] regret rate. A number of salient features differentiate our work from the existing online learning researches in the operations management (OM) literature. First, computing the optimal [Formula: see text] policy requires solving a dynamic programming (DP) over multiple periods involving unknown quantities, which is different from the majority of learning problems in OM that only require solving single-period optimization questions. It is hence challenging to establish stability results through DP recursions, which we accomplish by proving uniform convergence of the profit-to-go function. The necessity of analyzing action-dependent state transition over multiple periods resembles the reinforcement learning question, considerably more difficult than existing bandit learning algorithms. Second, the pricing function [Formula: see text] is of infinite dimension, and approaching it is much more challenging than approaching a finite number of parameters as seen in existing researches. The demand-price relationship is estimated based on upper confidence bound, but the confidence interval cannot be explicitly calculated due to the complexity of the DP recursion. Finally, because of the multiperiod nature of [Formula: see text] policies the actual distribution of the randomness in demand plays an important role in determining the optimal pricing strategy [Formula: see text], which is unknown to the learner a priori. In this paper, the demand randomness is approximated by an empirical distribution constructed using dependent samples, and a novel Wasserstein metric-based argument is employed to prove convergence of the empirical distribution. This paper was accepted by J. George Shanthikumar, big data analytics. 
    more » « less
  2. We study gains from trade in multi-dimensional two-sided markets. Specifically, we focus on a setting with n heterogeneous items, where each item is owned by a different seller i, and there is a constrained-additive buyer with feasibility constraint ℱ. Multi-dimensional settings in one-sided markets, e.g. where a seller owns multiple heterogeneous items but also is the mechanism designer, are well-understood. In addition, single-dimensional settings in two-sided markets, e.g. where a buyer and seller each seek or own a single item, are also well-understood. Multi-dimensional two-sided markets, however, encapsulate the major challenges of both lines of work: optimizing the sale of heterogeneous items, ensuring incentive-compatibility among both sides of the market, and enforcing budget balance. We present, to the best of our knowledge, the first worst-case approximation guarantee for gains from trade in a multi-dimensional two-sided market. Our first result provides an O(log(1/r))-approximation to the first-best gains from trade for a broad class of downward-closed feasibility constraints (such as matroid, matching, knapsack, or the intersection of these). Here r is the minimum probability over all items that a buyer's value for the item exceeds the seller's cost. Our second result removes the dependence on r and provides an unconditional O(log n)-approximation to the second-best gains from trade. We extend both results for a general constrained-additive buyer, losing another O(log n)-factor en-route. The first result is achieved using a fixed posted price mechanism, and the analysis involves a novel application of the prophet inequality or a new concentration inequality. Our second result follows from a stitching lemma that allows us to upper bound the second-best gains from trade by the first-best gains from trade from the “likely to trade” items (items with trade probability at least 1/n) and the optimal profit from selling the “unlikely to trade” items. We can obtain an O(log n)-approximation to the first term by invoking our O(log(1/r))-approximation on the “likely to trade” items. We introduce a generalization of the fixed posted price mechanism—seller adjusted posted price—to obtain an O(log n)-approximation to the optimal profit for the “unlikely to trade” items. Unlike fixed posted price mechanisms, not all seller adjusted posted price mechanisms are incentive compatible and budget balanced. We develop a new argument based on “allocation coupling” to show the seller adjusted posted price mechanism used in our approximation is indeed budget balanced and incentive-compatible. 
    more » « less
  3. This paper studies a dynamic pricing problem under model misspecification. To characterize model misspecification, we adopt the ε-contamination model—the most fundamental model in robust statistics and machine learning. In particular, for a selling horizon of length T, the online ε-contamination model assumes that demands are realized according to a typical unknown demand function only for [Formula: see text] periods. For the rest of [Formula: see text] periods, an outlier purchase can happen with arbitrary demand functions. The challenges brought by the presence of outlier customers are mainly due to the fact that arrivals of outliers and their exhibited demand behaviors are completely arbitrary, therefore calling for robust estimation and exploration strategies that can handle any outlier arrival and demand patterns. We first consider unconstrained dynamic pricing without any inventory constraint. In this case, we adopt the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader algorithm to hedge against outlier purchase behavior. Then, we introduce inventory constraints. When the inventory is insufficient, we study a robust bisection-search algorithm to identify the clearance price—that is, the price at which the initial inventory is expected to clear at the end of T periods. Finally, we study the general dynamic pricing case, where a retailer has no clue whether the inventory is sufficient or not. In this case, we design a meta-algorithm that combines the previous two policies. All algorithms are fully adaptive, without requiring prior knowledge of the outlier proportion parameter ε. Simulation study shows that our policy outperforms existing policies in the literature. 
    more » « less
  4. We consider a fundamental pricing model in which a fixed number of units of a reusable resource are used to serve customers. Customers arrive to the system according to a stochastic process and, upon arrival, decide whether to purchase the service, depending on their willingness to pay and the current price. The service time during which the resource is used by the customer is stochastic, and the firm may incur a service cost. This model represents various markets for reusable resources, such as cloud computing, shared vehicles, rotable parts, and hotel rooms. In the present paper, we analyze this pricing problem when the firm attempts to maximize a weighted combination of three central metrics: profit, market share, and service level. Under Poisson arrivals, exponential service times, and standard assumptions on the willingness-to-pay distribution, we establish a series of results that characterize the performance of static pricing in such environments. In particular, although an optimal policy is fully dynamic in such a context, we prove that a static pricing policy simultaneously guarantees 78.9% of the profit, market share, and service level from the optimal policy. Notably, this result holds for any service rate and number of units the firm operates. Our proof technique relies on a judicious construction of a static price that is derived directly from the optimal dynamic pricing policy. In the special case in which there are two units and the induced demand is linear, we also prove that the static policy guarantees 95.5% of the profit from the optimal policy. Our numerical findings on a large test bed of instances suggest that the latter result is quite indicative of the profit obtained by the static pricing policy across all parameters. 
    more » « less
  5. We consider dynamic assortment problems with reusable products, in which each arriving customer chooses a product within an offered assortment, uses the product for a random duration of time, and returns the product back to the firm to be used by other customers. The goal is to find a policy for deciding on the assortment to offer to each customer so that the total expected revenue over a finite selling horizon is maximized. The dynamic-programming formulation of this problem requires a high-dimensional state variable that keeps track of the on-hand product inventories, as well as the products that are currently in use. We present a tractable approach to compute a policy that is guaranteed to obtain at least 50% of the optimal total expected revenue. This policy is based on constructing linear approximations to the optimal value functions. When the usage duration is infinite or follows a negative binomial distribution, we also show how to efficiently perform rollout on a simple static policy. Performing rollout corresponds to using separable and nonlinear value function approximations. The resulting policy is also guaranteed to obtain at least 50% of the optimal total expected revenue. The special case of our model with infinite usage durations captures the case where the customers purchase the products outright without returning them at all. Under infinite usage durations, we give a variant of our rollout approach whose total expected revenue differs from the optimal by a factor that approaches 1 with rate cubic-root of Cmin, where Cmin is the smallest inventory of a product. We provide computational experiments based on simulated data for dynamic assortment management, as well as real parking transaction data for the city of Seattle. Our computational experiments demonstrate that the practical performance of our policies is substantially better than their performance guarantees and that performing rollout yields noticeable improvements. 
    more » « less