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1. The Role of Upper-Level Coupling on Great Plains Low-Level Jet Structure and Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0059.1  

   Burrows, D. Alex; Ferguson, Craig R.; Bosart, Lance F. (December 2020, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The Great Plains (GP) southerly nocturnal low-level jet (GPLLJ) is a dominant contributor to the region’s warm-season (May–September) mean and extreme precipitation, wind energy generation, and severe weather outbreaks—including mesoscale convective systems. The spatiotemporal structure, variability, and impact of individual GPLLJ events are closely related to their degree of upper-level synoptic coupling, which varies from strong coupling in synoptic trough–ridge environments to weak coupling in quiescent, synoptic ridge environments. Here, we apply an objective dynamic classification of GPLLJ upper-level coupling and fully characterize strongly coupled (C) and relatively uncoupled (UC) GPLLJs from the perspective of the ground-based observer. Through composite analyses of C and UC GPLLJ event samples taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Coupled Earth Reanalysis of the twentieth century (CERA-20C), we address how the frequency of these jet types, as well as their inherent weather- and climate-relevant characteristics—including wind speed, direction, and shear; atmospheric stability; and precipitation—vary on diurnal and monthly time scales across the southern, central, and northern subregions of the GP. It is shown that C and UC GPLLJ events have similar diurnal phasing, but the diurnal amplitude is much greater for UC GPLLJs. C GPLLJs tend to have a faster and more elevated jet nose, less low-level wind shear, and enhanced CAPE and precipitation. UC GPLLJs undergo a larger inertial oscillation (Blackadar mechanism) for all subregions, and C GPLLJs have greater geostrophic forcing (Holton mechanism) in the southern and northern GP. The results underscore the need to differentiate between C and UC GPLLJs in future seasonal forecast and climate prediction activities. 

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2. Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0185.1  

   Ferguson, Craig R.; Agrawal, Shubhi; Beauharnois, Mark C.; Xia, Geng; Burrows, D. Alex; Bosart, Lance F. (November 2020, Monthly Weather Review)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract In the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m −2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg −2 , 59.9 W m −2 , 52.4 W m −2 , 240 m, and 4 m s −1 , respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized. 

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3. The Influence of Soil Moisture on the Historic 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0253.1  

   Conrick, Robert; Mass, Clifford F. (May 2023, Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract During late June 2021, a record-breaking heatwave impacted western North America, with all-time high temperatures reported across Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alberta. The heatwave was forced by a highly anomalous upper-level ridge, strong synoptic-scale subsidence, and downslope flow resulting in lower-tropospheric adiabatic warming. This study examines the impact of antecedent soil moisture on this extreme heat event. During the cool season of 2020/21, precipitation over the Pacific Northwest was above or near normal, followed by a dry spring that desiccated soils to 50%–75% of normal moisture content by early June. Low surface soil moisture affects the surface energy balance by altering the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in warmer temperatures. Using numerical model simulations of the heatwave, this study demonstrates that surface air temperatures were warmed by an average of 0.48°C as a result of dry soil moisture conditions, compared to a high-temperature anomaly of 10°–20°C during the event. Air temperatures over eastern Washington and southern British Columbia were most sensitive to soil moisture anomalies, with 0000 UTC temperature anomalies ranging from 1.2° to 2.2°C. Trajectory analysis indicated that rapid subsidence of elevated parcels prevented air parcels from being affected by surface heat fluxes over a prolonged period of time, resulting in a relatively small temperature sensitivity to soil moisture. Changes to soil moisture also altered regional pressure, low-level wind, and geopotential heights, as well as modified the marine air intrusion along the Pacific coast of Washington and Oregon. Significance Statement The record-breaking western North American heatwave of late June 2021 was preceded by below-normal soil moisture over the region. This study evaluates the role of soil moisture on the 2021 heatwave, demonstrating that the anomalous temperatures during this extreme event were not significantly increased by below-normal soil moisture. 

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4. River winds and pollutant recirculation near the Manaus city in the central Amazon

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00277-6  

   Zhao, Tianning; Ye, Jianhuai; Ribeiro, Igor O.; Ma, Yongjing; Hung, Hui-Ming; Batista, Carla E.; Stewart, Matthew P.; Guimarães, Patricia C.; Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Jordi; de Souza, Rodrigo A.; et al (December 2021, Communications Earth & Environment)

   Abstract Local atmospheric recirculation flows (i.e., river winds) induced by thermal contrast between wide Amazon rivers and adjacent forests could affect pollutant dispersion, but observational platforms for investigating this possibility have been lacking. Here we collected daytime vertical profiles of meteorological variables and chemical concentrations up to 500 m with a copter-type unmanned aerial vehicle during the 2019 dry season. Cluster analysis showed that a river-forest recirculation flow occurred for 23% (13 of 56) of the profiles. In fair weather, the thermally driven river winds fully developed for synoptic wind speeds below 4 m s −1 , and during these periods the vertical profiles of carbon monoxide and total oxidants (defined as ozone and nitrogen dioxide) were altered. Numerical modeling shows that the river winds can recirculate pollution back toward the riverbank. There are implications regarding air quality for the many human settlements along the rivers throughout northern Brazil. 

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5. The Influence of Boundary Layer Mixing Strength on the Evolution of a Baroclinic Cyclone

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0264.1  

   Vaughan, Matthew T.; Fovell, Robert G. (March 2021, Monthly Weather Review)

   Abstract Subgrid-scale turbulence in numerical weather prediction models is typically handled by a PBL parameterization. These schemes attempt to represent turbulent mixing processes occurring below the resolvable scale of the model grid in the vertical direction, and they act upon temperature, moisture, and momentum within the boundary layer. This study varies the PBL mixing strength within 4-km WRF simulations of a 26–29 January 2015 snowstorm to assess the sensitivity of baroclinic cyclones to eddy diffusivity intensity. The bulk critical Richardson number for unstable regimes is varied between 0.0 and 0.25 within the YSU PBL scheme as a way of directly altering the depth and magnitude of subgrid-scale turbulent mixing. Results suggest that varying the bulk critical Richardson number is similar to selecting a different PBL parameterization. Differences in boundary layer moisture availability, arising from reduced entrainment of dry, free tropospheric air, lead to variations in the magnitude of latent heat release above the warm frontal region, producing stronger upper-tropospheric downstream ridging in simulations with less PBL mixing. The more amplified flow pattern impedes the northeastward propagation of the surface cyclone and results in a westward shift of precipitation. In addition, trajectory analysis indicates that ascending parcels in the less-mixing simulations condense more water vapor and terminate at a higher potential temperature level than do ascending parcels in the more-mixing simulations, suggesting stronger latent heat release when PBL mixing is reduced. These results suggest that spread within ensemble forecast systems may be improved by perturbing PBL mixing parameters that are not well constrained. 

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