skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Bayesian inference for finite populations under spatial process settings
Abstract We develop a Bayesian model–based approach to finite population estimation accounting for spatial dependence. Our innovation here is a framework that achieves inference for finite population quantities in spatial process settings. A key distinction from the small area estimation setting is that we analyze finite populations referenced by their geographic coordinates. Specifically, we consider a two‐stage sampling design in which the primary units are geographic regions, the secondary units are point‐referenced locations, and the measured values are assumed to be a partial realization of a spatial process. Estimation of finite population quantities from geostatistical models does not account for sampling designs, which can impair inferential performance, whereas design‐based estimates ignore the spatial dependence in the finite population. We demonstrate by using simulation experiments that process‐based finite population sampling models improve model fit and inference over models that fail to account for spatial correlation. Furthermore, the process‐based models offer richer inference with spatially interpolated maps over the entire region. We reinforce these improvements and demonstrate scalable inference for groundwater nitrate levels in the population of California Central Valley wells by offering estimates of mean nitrate levels and their spatially interpolated maps.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1916349
PAR ID:
10142739
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Environmetrics
Volume:
31
Issue:
3
ISSN:
1180-4009
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; (, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics)
    null (Ed.)
    Spatial extremes are common for climate data as the observations are usually referenced by geographic locations and dependent when they are nearby. An important goal of extremes modeling is to estimate the T-year return level. Among the methods suitable for modeling spatial extremes, perhaps the simplest and fastest approach is the spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the spatial generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) that assume marginal independence and only account for dependence through the parameters. Despite the simplicity, simulations have shown that return level estimation using the spatial GEV and spatial GPD still provides satisfactory results compared to max-stable processes, which are asymptotically justified models capable of representing spatial dependence among extremes. However, the linear functions used to model the spatially varying coefficients are restrictive and may be violated.We propose a flexible and fast approach based on the spatial GEV and spatial GPD by introducing fused lasso and fused ridge penalty for parameter regularization. This enables improved return level estimation for large spatial extremes compared to the existing methods. Supplemental files for this article are available online. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; (, Proceedings of the ACM on Measurement and Analysis of Computing Systems)
    Despite significant investments in access network infrastructure, universal access to high-quality Internet connectivity remains a challenge. Policymakers often rely on large-scale, crowdsourced measurement datasets to assess the distribution of access network performance across geographic areas. These decisions typically rest on the assumption that Internet performance is uniformly distributed within predefined social boundaries, such as zip codes, census tracts, or neighborhood units. However, this assumption may not be valid for two reasons: (1) crowdsourced measurements often exhibit non-uniform sampling densities within geographic areas; and (2) predefined social boundaries may not align with the actual boundaries of Internet infrastructure. In this paper, we present a spatial analysis on crowdsourced datasets for constructing stable boundaries for sampling Internet performance. We hypothesize that greater stability in sampling boundaries will reflect the true nature of Internet performance disparities than misleading patterns observed as a result of data sampling variations. We apply and evaluate a series of statistical techniques to: (1) aggregate Internet performance over geographic regions; (2) overlay interpolated maps with various sampling unit choices; and (3) spatially cluster boundary units to identify contiguous areas with similar performance characteristics. We assess the effectiveness of the techniques we apply by comparing the similarity of the resulting boundaries for monthly samples drawn from the dataset. Our evaluation shows that the combination of techniques we apply achieves higher similarity compared to directly calculating central measures of network metrics over census tracts or neighborhood boundaries. These findings underscore the important role of spatial modeling in accurately assessing and optimizing the distribution of Internet performance, which can better inform policy, network operations, and long-term planning decisions. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; (, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society)
    Abstract Area-level models for small area estimation typically rely on areal random effects to shrink design-based direct estimates towards a model-based predictor. Incorporating the spatial dependence of the random effects into these models can further improve the estimates when there are not enough covariates to fully account for the spatial dependence of the areal means. A number of recent works have investigated models that include random effects for only a subset of areas, in order to improve the precision of estimates. However, such models do not readily handle spatial dependence. In this paper, we introduce a model that accounts for spatial dependence in both the random effects as well as the latent process that selects the effects. We show how this model can significantly improve predictive accuracy via an empirical simulation study based on data from the American Community Survey, and illustrate its properties via an application to estimate county-level median rent burden. 
    more » « less
  4. (, Fisheries research)
    Understanding population dynamics is essential for achieving sustainable and productive fisheries. However, estimating recruitment in a stock assessment model involves the challenging task of identifying a self-sustaining population, which often includes representing complex geographic structure. A review of several case studies demonstrated that alternative stock assessment models can influence estimates of recruitment. Incorporating spatial population structure and connectivity into stock assessment models changed the perception of recruit- ment events for a wide diversity of fisheries, but the degree to which estimates were impacted depended on movement rates and relative stock sizes. For multiple population components, estimates of strong recruitment events and the productivity of smaller population units were often more sensitive to connectivity assumptions. Simulation testing, conditioned on these case studies, suggested that accurately accounting for population structure, either in management unit definitions or stock assessment model structure, improved recruitment estimates. An understanding of movement dynamics improved estimation of connected sub-populations. The challenge of representing geographic structure in stock assessment emphasizes the importance of defining self- sustaining management units to justify a unit-stock assumption. 
    more » « less
  5. ; (, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology)
    Abstract Linear quantile regression is a powerful tool to investigate how predictors may affect a response heterogeneously across different quantile levels. Unfortunately, existing approaches find it extremely difficult to adjust for any dependency between observation units, largely because such methods are not based upon a fully generative model of the data. For analysing spatially indexed data, we address this difficulty by generalizing the joint quantile regression model of Yang and Tokdar (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2017, 112(519), 1107–1120) and characterizing spatial dependence via a Gaussian or t-copula process on the underlying quantile levels of the observation units. A Bayesian semiparametric approach is introduced to perform inference of model parameters and carry out spatial quantile smoothing. An effective model comparison criteria is provided, particularly for selecting between different model specifications of tail heaviness and tail dependence. Extensive simulation studies and two real applications to particulate matter concentration and wildfire risk are presented to illustrate substantial gains in inference quality, prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification over existing alternatives. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email