Abstract Since the very first detection of gravitational waves from the coalescence of two black holes in 2015, Bayesian statistical methods have been routinely applied by LIGO and Virgo to extract the signal out of noisy interferometric measurements, obtain point estimates of the physical parameters responsible for producing the signal, and rigorously quantify their uncertainties. Different computational techniques have been devised depending on the source of the gravitational radiation and the gravitational waveform model used. Prominent sources of gravitational waves are binary black hole or neutron star mergers, the only objects that have been observed by detectors to date. But also gravitational waves from core‐collapse supernovae, rapidly rotating neutron stars, and the stochastic gravitational‐wave background are in the sensitivity band of the ground‐based interferometers and expected to be observable in future observation runs. As nonlinearities of the complex waveforms and the high‐dimensional parameter spaces preclude analytic evaluation of the posterior distribution, posterior inference for all these sources relies on computer‐intensive simulation techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. A review of state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian statistical parameter estimation methods will be given for researchers in this cross‐disciplinary area of gravitational wave data analysis. This article is categorized under:Applications of Computational Statistics > Signal and Image Processing and CodingStatistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis > Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)Statistical Models > Time Series Models
more »
« less
Posterior samples of the parameters of binary black holes from Advanced LIGO, Virgo’s second observing run
Abstract This paper presents a parameter estimation analysis of the seven binary black hole mergers—GW170104, GW170608, GW170729, GW170809, GW170814, GW170818, and GW170823—detected during the second observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Virgo observatories using the gravitational-wave open data. We describe the methodology for parameter estimation of compact binaries using gravitational-wave data, and we present the posterior distributions of the inferred astrophysical parameters. We release our samples of the posterior probability density function with tutorials on using and replicating our results presented in this paper.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1707954
- PAR ID:
- 10153725
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Data
- Volume:
- 6
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2052-4463
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract We develop and characterize a parameter estimation methodology for rotating core collapse supernovae based on the gravitational wave core bounce phase and real detector noise. Expanding on the evidence from numerical simulations for the deterministic nature of this gravitational wave emission and about the dependence on the ratio $$\beta$$ between rotational kinetic to potential energy, we propose an analytical model for the core bounce component which depends on $$\beta$$ and one phenomenological parameter. We validate the goodness of the model with a pool of representative waveforms. We use the fitting factor adopted in compact coalescing binary searches as a metric to quantify the goodness of the analytical model and the template bank generated by the model presents an average accuracy of 94.4\% when compared with the numerical simulations and is used as the basis for the work. The error for a matched filter frequentist parameter estimation of $$\beta$$ is evaluated. The results obtained considering real interferometric noise and a waveform at a distance of 10 kpc and optimal orientation, for one standard deviation estimation error of the rotation parameter \(\beta\) lie in the range of \(10^{-2}\) to \(10^{-3}\) as \(\beta\) increases. The results are also compared to the scenario where Gaussian recolored data is employed. The analytical model also allows for the first time, to compute theoretical minima in the error for $$\beta$$ for any type of estimator. Our analysis indicates that the presence of rotation would be detectable at 0.5 Mpc for third generation interferometers like CE or ET.more » « less
-
Abstract We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, ( m 1 , m 2 ) , and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, a f , and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental ℓ = m = 2 bar mode, ( ω R , ω I ) . Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters ( m 1 , m 2 , a f , ω R , ω I ) of five binary black holes: GW150914 , GW170104 , GW170814 , GW190521 and GW190630 . We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. This neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science .more » « less
-
Abstract We report a gravitational-wave parameter estimation algorithm,AMPLFI, based on likelihood-free inference using normalizing flows. The focus ofAMPLFIis to perform real-time parameter estimation for candidates detected by machine-learning based compact binary coalescence search,Aframe. We present details of our algorithm and optimizations done related to data-loading and pre-processing on accelerated hardware. We train our model using binary black-hole (BBH) simulations on real LIGO-Virgo detector noise. Our model has million trainable parameters with training times h. Based on online deployment on a mock data stream of LIGO-Virgo data,Aframe+AMPLFIis able to pick up BBH candidates and infer parameters for real-time alerts from data acquisition with a net latency of s.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant ($$H_0$$) from the standard dark siren method using a sample of five well-covered gravitational wave (GW) alerts reported during the first part of the fourth observing run of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), the Virgo and Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector (KAGRA) collaborations (LVK) and with three updated standard dark sirens from third observation run in combination with the previous constraints from the first three runs. Our methodology relies on the galaxy catalogue method alone. We use a deep learning method to derive the full probability density estimation of photometric redshifts using the Legacy Survey catalogues. We add the constraints from well localized binary black hole mergers to the sample of standard dark sirens analysed in our previous work. We combine the $$H_0$$ posterior for 5 new standard sirens with other 10 previous events (using the most recent available data for the five novel events and updated three previous posteriors from O3), finding $$H_0 = 70.4^{+13.6}_{-11.7}~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$$ (68 per cent confidence interval) with the catalogue method only. This result represents an improvement of $$\sim 23~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ comparing the new 15 dark siren constraints with the previous 10 dark siren constraints and a reduction in uncertainty of $$\sim 40~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ from the combination of 15 dark and bright sirens compared with the GW170817 bright siren alone. The combination of dark and bright siren GW170817 with recent jet constraints yields $$H_0$$ of $$68.0^{+4.4}_{-3.8}~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$$, a $$\sim 6~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ precision from standard sirens, reducing the previous constraint uncertainty by $$\sim 10~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$.more » « less
An official website of the United States government
