Climate change has already caused local extinction in many plants and animals, based on surveys spanning many decades. As climate change accelerates, the pace of these extinctions may also accelerate, potentially leading to large‐scale, species‐level extinctions. We tested this hypothesis in a montane lizard. We resurveyed 18 mountain ranges in 2021–2022 after only ~7 years. We found rates of local extinction among the fastest ever recorded, which have tripled in the past ~7 years relative to the preceding ~42 years. Further, climate change generated local extinction in ~7 years similar to that seen in other organisms over ~70 years. Yet, contrary to expectations, populations at two of the hottest sites survived. We found that genomic data helped predict which populations survived and which went extinct. Overall, we show the increasing risk to biodiversity posed by accelerating climate change and the opportunity to study its effects over surprisingly brief timescales.
Around the world, many species are confined to “Sky Islands,” with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (
- Award ID(s):
- 1655690
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10457388
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Molecular Ecology
- Volume:
- 28
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 0962-1083
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 2610-2624
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract -
Abstract A possible response of many plant species to global warming is migration to higher elevations. However, these migrations may not be required if species can tolerate higher temperatures, or may be prevented if there are other factors such as changes in soil conditions that make upslope areas unsuitable.
We used a set of 3‐year field transplant experiments in the remote Peruvian Andes to simulate two possible responses of an abundant tropical montane cloudforest tree species (
Weinmania bangii ) to global warming: (a) ‘upward migration’, in which case seedlings ofW. bangii's were grown at their current elevation/temperature but in soils transplanted from higher elevations and (b) ‘migration failure’, in which case seedlings were transplanted downslope along with their home soils into areas that are 1°C or 2°C warmer. We conducted separate experiments with populations from the upper/leading edge, middle and lower/trailing edges ofW. bangii's elevational/thermal range to assess the influence of local adaptation on responses to changes in temperature or soil.We found that seedling survival and growth were not affected by changes in soil conditions, regardless of the origin population. However, seedling survival decreased with temperature. A simulated warming of 1°C caused a significant reduction in the survival of seedlings transplanted from the mid‐range population, and 2°C warming caused a severe decrease in the survival of seedlings transplanted from both the mid‐range and bottom‐edge populations.
Synthesis . Our findings reveal that rising temperatures are a serious threat to plants, especially in populations growing in the hotter portion of their species’ range. At least in the case ofW. bangii, novel soil conditions will not limit the establishment or growth of seedlings at higher elevations. As such, decreases in the survivorship at lower elevations may be offset through upward migrations as temperatures continue to increase. -
Rudi, Knut (Ed.)ABSTRACT As rising temperatures threaten biodiversity across the globe, tropical ectotherms are thought to be particularly vulnerable due to their narrow thermal tolerance ranges. Nevertheless, physiology-based models highlighting the vulnerability of tropical organisms rarely consider the contributions of their gut microbiota, even though microbiomes influence numerous host traits, including thermal tolerance. We combined field and lab experiments to understand the response of the slender anole lizard ( Anolis apletophallus ) gut microbiome to climatic shifts of various magnitude and duration. First, to examine the effects of long-term climate warming in the wild, we transplanted lizards from the mainland Panama to a series of warmer islands in the Panama Canal and compared their gut microbiome compositions after three generations of divergence. Next, we mimicked the effects of a short-term “heat-wave” by using a greenhouse experiment and explored the link between gut microbiome composition and lizard thermal physiology. Finally, we examined variation in gut microbiomes in our mainland population in the years both before and after a naturally occurring drought. Our results suggest that slender anole microbiomes are surprisingly resilient to short-term warming. However, both the taxonomic and predicted functional compositions of the gut microbiome varied by sampling year across all sites, suggesting that the drought may have had a regional effect. We provide evidence that short-term heat waves may not substantially affect the gut microbiota, while more sustained climate anomalies may have effects at broad geographic scales. IMPORTANCE As climate change progresses, it is crucial to understand how animals will respond to shifts in their local environments. One component of this response involves changes in the microbial communities living in and on host organisms. These “microbiomes” can affect many processes that contribute to host health and survival, yet few studies have measured changes in the microbiomes of wild organisms experiencing novel climatic conditions. We examined the effects of shifting climates on the gut microbiome of the slender anole lizard ( Anolis apletophallus ) by using a combination of field and laboratory studies, including transplants to warm islands in the Panama Canal. We found that slender anole microbiomes remain stable in response to short-term warming but may be sensitive to sustained climate anomalies, such as droughts. We discuss the significance of these findings for a species that is considered highly vulnerable to climate change.more » « less
-
Abstract As climates change, species with locally adapted populations may be particularly vulnerable as specialization narrows the range of conditions under which populations can persist. Populations adapted to local climate as well as other site‐specific characteristics like soils present challenges for inferring how changing climates affect fitness, as climatic and nonclimatic variables that constitute local conditions decouple. We conducted two transplant experiments involving American ginseng to test how climatic conditions affect performance while controlling for effects of other site characteristics. We first out‐planted populations from differing elevations to gardens arrayed along an elevation/climate gradient. We also grew maternal plants under temperatures corresponding to home‐site and future conditions (16.4–22.4°C), transplanting resultant progeny to two home‐sites at different elevations (400 m, 800 m). Source populations responded idiosyncratically to elevation reflecting how nonclimatic site characteristics strongly affected plant fitness. Germination rates declined for seeds from maternal plants exposed to warmer temperatures, which compounded with diminished seed production of maternal plants, suggested that population growth may decline rapidly as warm years become hotter and more frequent. Controlling for maternal temperature effects provided evidence that plants are adapted to home‐site conditions, both climatic and nonclimatic, with population growth rates for out‐planted populations ranging from below population replacement levels (
λ = 0.58) to well above (λ = 1.33). Evidence of local adaptation to climatic and nonclimatic environmental components, in combination with negative fitness impacts of warming climates on offspring via maternal effects, suggests that changing climate may imperil ginseng and other similar understory species. -
Abstract Island spotted skunks (Spilogale gracilis amphiala) are a rare subspecies endemic to the California Channel Islands, currently extant on Santa Cruz and Santa Rosa islands. How and when skunks arrived on the islands is unknown, hindering decision-making about their taxonomic status and conservation priority. We investigated these questions by sequencing the complete mitochondrial genomes of 55 skunks from the two islands and mainland (California and Arizona) and examining phylogenetic patterns and estimations of isolation times among populations. Island spotted skunks grouped in a single monophyletic clade distinct from mainland spotted skunks. A haplotype network analysis had the most recent common ancestral haplotype sampled from an individual on Santa Rosa, suggesting both islands were colonized by a single matriline. Additionally, no haplotypes were shared between skunk populations on the two islands. These patterns imply that both island populations were derived from a common ancestral population shortly after establishment and have remained isolated from each other ever since. Together with divergence estimates from three methods, this topology is consistent with colonization of the super-island, Santarosae, by a single ancestral population of spotted skunks in the early Holocene, followed by divergence as the sea level rose and split Santarosae into Santa Cruz and Santa Rosa islands 9,400–9,700 years ago. Such a scenario of colonization could be explained either by rafting or one-time transport by Native Americans. Given their distinct evolutionary history, high levels of endemism, and current population status, island spotted skunks may warrant management as distinct evolutionarily significant units.