Keynote points
• Thermal expansion from a warming ocean and land ice melt are the main causes of the accelerating global rise in the mean sea level.
• Global warming is also affecting many circulation systems. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has already weakened and will most likely continue to do so in the future. The impacts of ocean circulation changes include a regional rise in sea levels, changes in the nutrient distribution and carbon uptake of the ocean and feedbacks with the atmosphere, such as altering the distribution of precipitation.
• More than 90 per cent of the heat from global warming is stored in the global ocean. Oceans have exhibited robust warming since the 1950s from the surface to a depth of 2,000 m. The proportion of ocean heat content has more than doubled since the 1990s compared with long-term trends. Ocean warming can be seen in most of the global ocean, with a few regions exhibiting long-term cooling.
• The ocean shows a marked pattern of salinity changes in multidecadal observations, with surface and subsurface patterns providing clear evidence of a water cycle amplification over the ocean. That is manifested in enhanced salinities in the near-surface, high-salinity subtropical regions and freshening in the low-salinity regions such as the West Pacific Warm Pool and the poles.
• An increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, and a subsequent increase in carbon in the oceans, has changed the chemistry of the oceans to include changes to pH and aragonite saturation. A more carbon-enriched marine environment, especially when coupled with other environmental stressors, has been demonstrated through field studies and experiments to have negative impacts on a wide range of organisms, in particular those that form calcium carbonate shells, and alter biodiversity and ecosystem structure.
• Decades of oxygen observations allow for robust trend analyses. Long-term measurements have shown decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations for most ocean regions and the expansion of oxygen-depleted zones. A temperature-driven solubility decrease is responsible for most near-surface oxygen loss, though oxygen decrease is not limited to the upper ocean and is present throughout the water column in many areas.
• Total sea ice extent has been declining rapidly in the Arctic, but trends are insignificant in the Antarctic. In the Arctic, the summer trends are most striking in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, while, in the Antarctic, the summer trends show increases in the Weddell Sea and decreases in the West Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean. Variations in sea ice extent result from changes in wind and ocean currents.
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Sea-ice loss amplifies summertime decadal CO2 increase in the western Arctic Ocean
Rapid climate warming and sea-ice loss have induced major changes in the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 ( pCO2I). However, the long-term trends in the western Arctic Ocean are unknown. Here we show that in 1994–2017, summer pCO2I in the Canada Basin increased at twice the rate of atmospheric increase. Warming and ice loss in the basin have strengthened the pCO2I seasonal amplitude, resulting in the rapid decadal increase. Consequently, the summer air–sea CO2 gradient has reduced rapidly,
and may become near zero within two decades. In contrast, there was no significant pCO2I increase on the Chukchi Shelf, where strong and increasing biological uptake has held pCO2I low, and thus the CO2 sink has increased and may increase further due to the atmospheric CO2 increase. Our findings elucidate the contrasting physical and biological drivers controlling sea surface pCO2I variations and trends in response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10165808
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Climate Change
- ISSN:
- 1758-678X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Strengthened by polar amplification, Arctic warming provides direct evidence for global climate change. This analysis shows how Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) extremes have changed throughout time. Using ERA5, we demonstrate a pan-Arctic (>60°N) significant upward SAT trend of +0.62°C decade−1since 1979. Due to this warming, the warmest days of each month in the 1980s to 1990s would be considered average today, while the present coldest days would be regarded as normal in the 1980s to 1990s. Over 1979–2021, there was a 2°C (or 7%) reduction of pan-Arctic SAT seasonal cycle, which resulted in warming of the cold SAT extremes by a factor of 2 relative to the SAT trend and dampened trends of the warm SAT extremes by roughly 25%. Since 1979, autumn has seen the strongest increasing trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as counts of days with SAT above the 90th percentile and decreasing trends in counts of days with SAT below the 10th percentile, consistent with rapid Arctic sea ice decline and enhanced air–ocean heat fluxes. The modulated SAT seasonal signal has a significant impact on the timing of extremely strong monthly cold and warm spells. The dampening of the SAT seasonal fluctuations is likely to continue to increase as more sea ice melts and upper-ocean warming persists. As a result, the Arctic winter cold SAT extremes may continue to exhibit a faster rate of change than that of the summer warm SAT extremes as the Arctic continues to warm.
Significance Statement As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean’s sea ice is receding, exposing more and more areas to air–sea interactions. This reduces the range of seasonal changes in Arctic surface air temperatures (SAT). Since 1979, the reduced seasonal SAT signal has decreased the trend of warm SAT extremes by 25% over the background warming trend and doubled the trend of cold SAT extremes relative to SAT trends. A substantial number of warm and cold spells would not have been identified as exceptional if the reduction of the Arctic SAT seasonal amplitudes had not been taken into account. As the Arctic continues to warm and sea ice continues to diminish, seasonal SAT fluctuations will become more dampened, with the rate of decreasing winter SAT extremes exceeding the rate of increasing summer SAT extremes.
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Abstract Atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have increased simultaneously. Because of their opposite radiative effects, these increases may offset each other, which may lead to some nonlinear effects. Here the seasonal and regional characteristics of this nonlinear effect from the CO2 and AA forcings are investigated using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model. Results show that nonlinear effects are small in the global mean of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, and precipitation. However, significant nonlinear effects exist over the Arctic and other extratropical regions during certain seasons. When both forcings are included, Arctic sea ice in September–November decreases less than the linear combination of the responses to the individual forcings due to a higher sea ice sensitivity to the CO2-induced warming than the sensitivity to the AA-induced cooling. This leads to less Arctic warming in the combined-forcing experiment due to reduced energy release from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Some nonlinear effects on precipitation in June–August are found over East Asia, with the northward-shifted East Asian summer rain belt to oppose the CO2 effect. In December–February, the aerosol loading over Europe in the combined-forcing experiment is higher than that due to the AA forcing, resulting from CO2-induced circulation changes. The changed aerosol loading results in regional thermal responses due to aerosol direct and indirect effects, weakening the combined changes of temperature and circulation. This study highlights the need to consider nonlinear effects from historical CO2 and AA forcings in seasonal and regional climate attribution analyses.
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Abstract The Arctic Ocean has turned from a perennial ice‐covered ocean into a seasonally ice‐free ocean in recent decades. Such a shift in the air‐ice‐sea interface has resulted in substantial changes in the Arctic carbon cycle and related biogeochemical processes. To quantitatively evaluate how the oceanic CO2sink responds to rapid sea ice loss and to provide a mechanistic explanation, here we examined the air‐sea CO2flux and the regional CO2sink in the western Arctic Ocean from 1994 to 2019 by two complementary approaches: observation‐based estimation and a data‐driven box model evaluation. The
p CO2observations and model results showed that summer CO2uptake significantly increased by about 1.4 ± 0.6 Tg C decade−1in the Chukchi Sea, primarily due to a longer ice‐free period, a larger open area, and an increased primary production. However, no statistically significant increase in CO2sink was found in the Canada Basin and the Beaufort Sea based on both observations and modeled results. The reduced sea ice coverage in summer in the Canada Basin and the enhanced wind speed in the Beaufort Sea potentially promoted CO2uptake, which was, however, counteracted by a rapidly decreased air‐seap CO2gradient therein. Therefore, the current and future Arctic Ocean CO2uptake trends cannot be sufficiently reflected by the air‐seap CO2gradient alone because of the sea ice variations and other environmental factors. -
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Abstract Arctic warming under increased CO2peaks in winter, but is influenced by summer forcing via seasonal ocean heat storage. Yet changes in atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic have mainly been investigated in the annual mean or winter, with limited focus on other seasons. We investigate the full seasonal cycle of poleward heat transport modeled with increased CO2or with individually applied Arctic sea‐ice loss and global sea‐surface warming. We find that a winter reduction in dry heat transport is driven by Arctic sea‐ice loss and warming, while a summer increase in moist heat transport is driven by sub‐Arctic warming and moistening. Intermodel spread in Arctic warming controls spread in seasonal poleward heat transport. These seasonal changes and their intermodel spread are well‐captured by down‐gradient diffusive heat transport. While changes in moist and dry heat transport compensate in the annual‐mean, their opposite seasonality may support non‐compensating effects on Arctic warming.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0784-2
