An official website of the United States government
Abstract Building on previous work using single-basin models, we here explore the time-dependent response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden global temperature change in a two-basin ocean–ice model. We find that the previously identified mechanisms remain qualitatively useful to explain the transient and the long-term time-mean responses of the AMOC in our simulations. Specifically, we find an initial weakening of the AMOC in response to warming (and vice versa for cooling), controlled by the mid-depth meridional temperature contrast across the Atlantic basin. The long-term mean response instead is controlled primarily by changes in the abyssal stratification within the basin. In contrast to previous studies we find that for small-amplitude surface temperature changes, the equilibrium AMOC is almost unchanged, as the abyssal stratification remains similar due to a substantial compensation between the effects of salinity and temperature changes. The temperature-driven stratification change results from the differential warming/cooling between North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water, while the salinity change is driven by changes in Antarctic sea ice formation. Another distinct feature of our simulations is the emergence of AMOC variability in the much colder and much warmer climates. We discuss how this variability is related to variations in deep-ocean heat content, surface salinity, and sea ice in the deep convective regions, both in the North Atlantic and in the Southern Ocean, and its potential relevance to past and future climates.
more »
« less
Chapter 5: Trends in the Physical and Chemical State of the Ocean
Keynote points • Thermal expansion from a warming ocean and land ice melt are the main causes of the accelerating global rise in the mean sea level. • Global warming is also affecting many circulation systems. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has already weakened and will most likely continue to do so in the future. The impacts of ocean circulation changes include a regional rise in sea levels, changes in the nutrient distribution and carbon uptake of the ocean and feedbacks with the atmosphere, such as altering the distribution of precipitation. • More than 90 per cent of the heat from global warming is stored in the global ocean. Oceans have exhibited robust warming since the 1950s from the surface to a depth of 2,000 m. The proportion of ocean heat content has more than doubled since the 1990s compared with long-term trends. Ocean warming can be seen in most of the global ocean, with a few regions exhibiting long-term cooling. • The ocean shows a marked pattern of salinity changes in multidecadal observations, with surface and subsurface patterns providing clear evidence of a water cycle amplification over the ocean. That is manifested in enhanced salinities in the near-surface, high-salinity subtropical regions and freshening in the low-salinity regions such as the West Pacific Warm Pool and the poles. • An increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, and a subsequent increase in carbon in the oceans, has changed the chemistry of the oceans to include changes to pH and aragonite saturation. A more carbon-enriched marine environment, especially when coupled with other environmental stressors, has been demonstrated through field studies and experiments to have negative impacts on a wide range of organisms, in particular those that form calcium carbonate shells, and alter biodiversity and ecosystem structure. • Decades of oxygen observations allow for robust trend analyses. Long-term measurements have shown decreases in dissolved oxygen concentrations for most ocean regions and the expansion of oxygen-depleted zones. A temperature-driven solubility decrease is responsible for most near-surface oxygen loss, though oxygen decrease is not limited to the upper ocean and is present throughout the water column in many areas. • Total sea ice extent has been declining rapidly in the Arctic, but trends are insignificant in the Antarctic. In the Arctic, the summer trends are most striking in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, while, in the Antarctic, the summer trends show increases in the Weddell Sea and decreases in the West Antarctic sector of the Southern Ocean. Variations in sea ice extent result from changes in wind and ocean currents.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1951762
- PAR ID:
- 10333584
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Second World Ocean Assessment
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Abstract Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has slightly increased over the satellite observational period (1979 to the present) despite global warming. Several mechanisms have been invoked to explain this trend, such as changes in winds, precipitation, or ocean stratification, yet there is no widespread consensus. Additionally, fully coupled Earth system models run under historic and anthropogenic forcing generally fail to simulate positive SIE trends over this time period. In this work, we quantify the role of winds and Southern Ocean SSTs on sea ice trends and variability with an Earth system model run under historic and anthropogenic forcing that nudges winds over the polar regions and Southern Ocean SSTs north of the sea ice to observations from 1979 to 2018. Simulations with nudged winds alone capture the observed interannual variability in SIE and the observed long-term trends from the early 1990s onward, yet for the longer 1979–2018 period they simulate a negative SIE trend, in part due to faster-than-observed warming at the global and hemispheric scale in the model. Simulations with both nudged winds and SSTs show no significant SIE trends over 1979–2018, in agreement with observations. At the regional scale, simulated sea ice shows higher skill compared to the pan-Antarctic scale both in capturing trends and interannual variability in all nudged simulations. We additionally find negligible impact of the initial conditions in 1979 on long-term trends.more » « less
-
Abstract Transient climate sensitivity is strongly shaped by geographical patterns of ocean heat uptake (OHU). To isolate the effects of uncertainties associated with OHU, a single slab ocean model is forced with doubled CO2and an ensemble of OHU patterns diagnosed from transient warming scenarios in 12 fully coupled models. The single-model ensemble produces a wide range of Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice responses, which are in turn associated with a 1.1–2.0-K range of transient climate response (TCR). Feedback analysis attributes the TCR spread primarily to shortwave effects of low clouds in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes. These cloud changes are strongly positively correlated with storm-track eddy kinetic energy. It is argued that midlatitude clouds (and thus planetary albedo) are remotely driven by SO SST and Antarctic sea ice, mediated by large-scale changes in SH baroclinicity and lower-tropospheric stability. The robustness of this atmospheric teleconnection between SO SST, Antarctic sea ice, and global feedback through midlatitude clouds is supported through additional simulations that explore more extreme SST and sea ice perturbations. These results highlight the importance of understanding physical relationships between SST, sea ice, circulation, and cloud changes in the SH as a pathway to better constraining transient climate sensitivity. Significance StatementAlthough it is well known that Earth’s global-mean surface temperature increases with increasing atmospheric CO2, there are still significant uncertainties in the temperature and sea ice trends over the Southern Ocean region. Using a climate model, we find that Southern Ocean temperature and Antarctic sea ice changes can result in substantial cloud cover changes over the Southern Hemisphere, which play a primary role in determining the amount of warming in our experiments. We suggest that, in order to reduce uncertainty in future climate change, more work is needed to understand how the climate of the southern polar region can affect the circulation and clouds of the midlatitudes.more » « less
-
Most state-of-art models project a reduced equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and a weakened Walker circulation under global warming. However, the causes of this robust projection remain elusive. Here, we devise a series of slab ocean model experiments to diagnostically decompose the global warming response into the contributions from the direct carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, sea ice changes, and regional ocean heat uptake. The CO2forcing dominates the Walker circulation slowdown through enhancing the tropical tropospheric stability. Antarctic sea ice changes and local ocean heat release are the dominant drivers for reduced zonal temperature gradient over the equatorial Pacific, while the Southern Ocean heat uptake opposes this change. Corroborating our model experiments, multimodel analysis shows that the models with greater Southern Ocean heat uptake exhibit less reduction in the temperature gradient and less weakening of the Walker circulation. Therefore, constraining the tropical Pacific projection requires a better insight into Southern Ocean processes.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- The DOI is not currently available.
