Causal mediation analysis aims to characterize an exposure's effect on an outcome and quantify the indirect effect that acts through a given mediator or a group of mediators of interest. With the increasing availability of measurements on a large number of potential mediators, like the epigenome or the microbiome, new statistical methods are needed to simultaneously accommodate high-dimensional mediators while directly target penalization of the natural indirect effect (NIE) for active mediator identification. Here, we develop two novel prior models for identification of active mediators in high-dimensional mediation analysis through penalizing NIEs in a Bayesian paradigm. Both methods specify a joint prior distribution on the exposure-mediator effect and mediator-outcome effect with either (a) a four-component Gaussian mixture prior or (b) a product threshold Gaussian prior. By jointly modelling the two parameters that contribute to the NIE, the proposed methods enable penalization on their product in a targeted way. Resultant inference can take into account the four-component composite structure underlying the NIE. We show through simulations that the proposed methods improve both selection and estimation accuracy compared to other competing methods. We applied our methods for an in-depth analysis of two ongoing epidemiologic studies: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the LIFECODES birth cohort. The identified active mediators in both studies reveal important biological pathways for understanding disease mechanisms.
Causal mediation analysis aims to examine the role of a mediator or a group of mediators that lie in the pathway between an exposure and an outcome. Recent biomedical studies often involve a large number of potential mediators based on high‐throughput technologies. Most of the current analytic methods focus on settings with one or a moderate number of potential mediators. With the expanding growth of ‐omics data, joint analysis of molecular‐level genomics data with epidemiological data through mediation analysis is becoming more common. However, such joint analysis requires methods that can simultaneously accommodate high‐dimensional mediators and that are currently lacking. To address this problem, we develop a Bayesian inference method using continuous shrinkage priors to extend previous causal mediation analysis techniques to a high‐dimensional setting. Simulations demonstrate that our method improves the power of global mediation analysis compared to simpler alternatives and has decent performance to identify true nonnull contributions to the mediation effects of the pathway. The Bayesian method also helps us to understand the structure of the composite null cases for inactive mediators in the pathway. We applied our method to Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and identified DNA methylation regions that may actively mediate the effect of socioeconomic status on cardiometabolic outcomes.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1712933
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10456710
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Biometrics
- Volume:
- 76
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0006-341X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 700-710
- Size(s):
- ["p. 700-710"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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We consider Bayesian high‐dimensional mediation analysis to identify among a large set of correlated potential mediators the active ones that mediate the effect from an exposure variable to an outcome of interest. Correlations among mediators are commonly observed in modern data analysis; examples include the activated voxels within connected regions in brain image data, regulatory signals driven by gene networks in genome data, and correlated exposure data from the same source. When correlations are present among active mediators, mediation analysis that fails to account for such correlation can be suboptimal and may lead to a loss of power in identifying active mediators. Building upon a recent high‐dimensional mediation analysis framework, we propose two Bayesian hierarchical models, one with a Gaussian mixture prior that enables correlated mediator selection and the other with a Potts mixture prior that accounts for the correlation among active mediators in mediation analysis. We develop efficient sampling algorithms for both methods. Various simulations demonstrate that our methods enable effective identification of correlated active mediators, which could be missed by using existing methods that assume prior independence among active mediators. The proposed methods are applied to the LIFECODES birth cohort and the Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and identified new active mediators with important biological implications.
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Abstract Mediation hypothesis testing for a large number of mediators is challenging due to the composite structure of the null hypothesis, (: effect of the exposure on the mediator after adjusting for confounders; : effect of the mediator on the outcome after adjusting for exposure and confounders). In this paper, we reviewed three classes of methods for large‐scale one at a time mediation hypothesis testing. These methods are commonly used for continuous outcomes and continuous mediators assuming there is no exposure‐mediator interaction so that the product has a causal interpretation as the indirect effect. The first class of methods ignores the impact of different structures under the composite null hypothesis, namely, (1) ; (2) ; and (3) . The second class of methods weights the reference distribution under each case of the null to form a mixture reference distribution. The third class constructs a composite test statistic using the three
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