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Coastal flooding poses the greatest threat to human life and is often the most common source of damage from coastal storms. From 1980 to 2020, the top 6, and 17 of the top 25, costliest natural disasters in the U.S. were caused by coastal storms, most of these tropical systems. The Delaware and Chesapeake Bays, two of the largest and most densely populated estuaries in the U.S. located in the Mid-Atlantic coastal region, have been significantly impacted by strong tropical cyclones in recent decades, notably Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Current scenarios of future climate project an increase in major hurricanes and the continued rise of sea levels, amplifying coastal flooding threat. We look at all North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TC) in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database that came within 750 km of the Delmarva Peninsula from 1980 to 2019. For each TC, skew surge and storm tide are computed at 12 NOAA tide gauges throughout the two bays. Spatial variability of the detrended and normalized skew surge is investigated through cross-correlations, regional storm rankings, and comparison to storm tracks. We find Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Isabel (2003) had the largest surge impact on the Delaware and Chesapeake Bay, respectively. Surge response to TCs in upper and lower bay regions are more similar across bays than to the opposing region in their own bay. TCs that impacted lower bay more than upper bay regions tended to stay offshore east of Delmarva, whereas TCs that impacted upper bay regions tended to stay to the west of Delmarva. Although tropical cyclones are multi-hazard weather events, there continues to be a need to improve storm surge forecasting and implement strategies to minimize the damage of coastal flooding. Results from this analysis can provide insight on the potential regional impacts of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic.
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Weather Induced Quasi-Periodic Motions in Estuaries and Bays: Meteorological Tide
Influenced by weather, the estuaries and bays often exhibit recurring oscillations in flow and water level similar to astronomical tides. The weather impact however is less regular than tides and more difficult to predict. The spectrum of weather induced motions in estuaries and bays is mostly at the low-frequency end with time scales longer than those of diurnal tides. The repeated weather impact produces meteorological tide: the recurring flood and ebb and flushing of the estuaries and bays but at lower frequencies than those of tides. The variation in weather conditions is quasi-periodic and of large scale nature (~1000−3000 km) because of the alternating low- and high- atmospheric pressure systems of extra-tropical cyclones and anti-cyclones and associated fronts. By examining 40 years of data between Jan. 1, 1977 and Dec. 31, 2016, we identified 1648 frontal events (averaging ~41.2±4.7 per year) influencing the northern Gulf of Mexico for time periods in the spring, fall and winter. The late spring and summer months (May, Jun, July, and August) were not included in the calculation because of much weaker activities involving synoptic weather systems with fronts during these months. It is found that the number of frontal events reached the maximum in Jan. and Dec. while the minimum occurred in April and Sept. It is found that there is an increasing trend of number of fronts over the 40-year period. Our data show that the low pass filtered water level, velocity, and vorticity (velocity shear) all vary in response to the weather and appear as the meteorological tide. The particle excursions of meteorological tides are much larger than those from the astronomical tides. In addition, the irregular nature of the meteorological tide makes the inward flux and outward flux asymmetric in general and thus it has a significant implication to dispersion and transport of waterborne materials. A scaling analysis shows that the meteorological tide generally reaches quasi-steady state; and as a result, a regression model is established which can be very useful for predicting the weather produced quasi-periodic motions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1736713
- PAR ID:
- 10169968
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- China Ocean Engineering
- Volume:
- 34
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0890-5487
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 299-313
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Coastal flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards facing the U.S. mid-Atlantic region today. Impacts in this heavily populated and economically significant region are caused by a combination of the location’s exposure and natural forcing from storms and sea level rise. Tropical cyclones (TCs) and midlatitude (ML) weather systems each have caused extreme coastal flooding in the region. Skew surge was computed over each tidal cycle for the past 40 years (1980–2019) at several tide gauges in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays to compare the meteorological component of surge for each weather type. Although TCs cause higher mean surges, ML weather systems can produce surges just as severe and occur much more frequently, peaking in the cold season (November–March). Of the top 10 largest surge events, TCs account for 30%–45% in the Delaware and upper Chesapeake Bays and 40%–45% in the lower Chesapeake Bay. This percentage drops to 10%–15% for larger numbers of events in all regions. Mean sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) fields of the top 10 surge events from ML weather systems show a low pressure center west-southwest of “Delmarva” and a semistationary high pressure center to the northeast prior to maximum surge, producing strong easterly winds. Low pressure centers intensify under upper-level divergence as they travel eastward, and the high pressure centers are near the GPH ridges. During lower-bay events, the low pressure centers develop farther south, intensifying over warmer coastal waters, with a south-shifted GPH pattern relative to upper-bay events. Significance Statement Severe coastal flooding is a year-round threat in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, and impacts are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency. Research into the meteorological contribution to storm surge, separate from mean sea level and tidal phase, will increase the scientific understanding and monitoring of changing atmospheric conditions. Tropical cyclones and midlatitude weather systems both significantly impact the mid-Atlantic region during different times of year. However, climate change may alter the future behavior of these systems differently. Understanding the synoptic environment and quantifying the surge response and subbay geographic variability of each weather system in this region will aid in public awareness, near-term emergency preparation, and long-term planning for coastal storms.more » « less
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13344-020-0028-2
