More Like this

1. Unit Selection with Causal Diagram

   A. Li and J. Pearl (March 2022, Proceedings of the Thirty-Sixth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-22))

   Vasant Honavar and Matthijs Spaan (Ed.)

   The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged. Using a combination of experimental and observational data, Li and Pearl derived tight bounds on the “benefit function” - the payoff/cost associated with selecting an individual with given characteristics. This paper shows that these bounds can be narrowed significantly (enough to change decisions) when structural information is available in the form of a causal model. We address the problem of estimating the benefit function using observational and experimental data when specific graphical criteria are assumed to hold. 

   more » « less
2. Unit Selection with Nonbinary Treatment and Effect

   Li, Ang; Pearl, Judea (February 2024, {AAAI} Press)

   The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged. Using a combination of experimental and observational data, Li and Pearl derived tight bounds on the “benefit function”, which is the payoff/cost associated with selecting an individual with given characteristics. This paper extends the benefit function to the general form such that the treatment and effect are not restricted to binary. We propose an algorithm to test the identifiability of the nonbinary benefit function and an algorithm to compute the bounds of the nonbinary benefit function using experimental and observational data. 

   more » « less
3. Development and optimization of expected cross value for mate selection problems

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41437-024-00697-y  

   Ahadi, Pouya; Balasundaram, Balabhaskar; Borrero, Juan_S; Chen, Charles (July 2024, Heredity)

   Abstract In this study, we address the mate selection problem in the hybridization stage of a breeding pipeline, which constitutes the multi-objective breeding goal key to the performance of a variety development program. The solution framework we formulate seeks to ensure that individuals with the most desirable genomic characteristics are selected to cross in order to maximize the likelihood of the inheritance of desirable genetic materials to the progeny. Unlike approaches that use phenotypic values for parental selection and evaluate individuals separately, we use a criterion that relies on the genetic architecture of traits and evaluates combinations of genomic information of the pairs of individuals. We introduce theexpected cross value(ECV) criterion that measures the expected number of desirable alleles for gametes produced by pairs of individuals sampled from a population of potential parents. We use the ECV criterion to develop an integer linear programming formulation for the parental selection problem. The formulation is capable of controlling the inbreeding level between selected mates. We evaluate the approach or two applications: (i) improving multiple target traits simultaneously, and (ii) finding a multi-parental solution to design crossing blocks. We evaluate the performance of the ECV criterion using a simulation study. Finally, we discuss how the ECV criterion and the proposed integer linear programming techniques can be applied to improve breeding efficiency while maintaining genetic diversity in a breeding program. 

   more » « less
4. Bias Challenges in Counterfactual Data Augmentation

   Mouli, S Chandra; Zhou, Yangze; Ribeiro, Bruno (July 2022, Uncertainty in artificial intelligence)

   Deep learning models tend not to be out-of-distribution robust primarily due to their reliance on spurious features to solve the task. Counterfactual data augmentations provide a general way of (approximately) achieving representations that are counterfactual-invariant to spurious features, a requirement for out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. In this work, we show that counterfactual data augmentations may not achieve the desired counterfactual-invariance if the augmentation is performed by a context-guessing machine, an abstract machine that guesses the most-likely context of a given input. We theoretically analyze the invariance imposed by such counterfactual data augmentations and describe an exemplar NLP task where counterfactual data augmentation by a context-guessing machine does not lead to robust OOD classifiers. 

   more » « less
5. Counterfactuals with Latent Information

   https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20210496  

   Bergemann, Dirk; Brooks, Benjamin; Morris, Stephen (January 2022, American Economic Review)

   We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions in settings where the information held by strategic agents and the distribution of payoff-relevant states of the world are unknown. The analyst observes behavior assumed to be rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about the state. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, the counterfactual prediction is described by finitely many linear inequalities, even though the latent parameter, the information structure, is infinite dimensional. (JEL D44, D82, D83) 

   more » « less