This work studies the statistical limits of uniform convergence for offline policy evaluation (OPE) problems with model-based methods (for episodic MDP) and provides a unified framework towards optimal learning for several well-motivated offline tasks. Uniform OPE supΠ|Qπ−Q̂ π|<ϵ is a stronger measure than the point-wise OPE and ensures offline learning when Π contains all policies (the global class). In this paper, we establish an Ω(H2S/dmϵ2) lower bound (over model-based family) for the global uniform OPE and our main result establishes an upper bound of Õ (H2/dmϵ2) for the \emph{local} uniform convergence that applies to all \emph{near-empirically optimal} policies for the MDPs with \emph{stationary} transition. Here dm is the minimal marginal state-action probability. Critically, the highlight in achieving the optimal rate Õ (H2/dmϵ2) is our design of \emph{singleton absorbing MDP}, which is a new sharp analysis tool that works with the model-based approach. We generalize such a model-based framework to the new settings: offline task-agnostic and the offline reward-free with optimal complexity Õ (H2log(K)/dmϵ2) (K is the number of tasks) and Õ (H2S/dmϵ2) respectively. These results provide a unified solution for simultaneously solving different offline RL problems.
more »
« less
Towards optimal off-policy evaluation for reinforcement learning with marginalized importance sampling.
Motivated by the many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) that require safe-policy iterations, we consider the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) — the problem of evaluating a new policy using the historical data ob- tained by different behavior policies — under the model of nonstationary episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDP) with a long horizon and a large action space. Existing importance sampling (IS) methods often suffer from large variance that depends exponentially on the RL horizon H. To solve this problem, we consider a marginalized importance sampling (MIS) estimator that recursively estimates the state marginal distribution for the target policy at every step. MIS achieves a mean-squared error of [ ] where μ and π are the logging and target policies, dμt (st) and dπt (st) are the marginal distribution of the state at tth step, H is the horizon, n is the sample
size and V π is the value function of the MDP under π. The result matches the t+1 Cramer-Rao lower bound in Jiang and Li [2016] up to a multiplicative factor of H. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first OPE estimation error bound with a polynomial dependence on H . Besides theory, we show empirical superiority of our method in time-varying, partially observable, and long-horizon RL environments.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1934641
- PAR ID:
- 10188278
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advances in neural information processing systems
- ISSN:
- 1049-5258
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 9668-9678
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning (RL) -- a well-motivated setting of RL that aims at policy optimization using only historical data. Despite its wide applicability, theoretical understandings of offline RL, such as its optimal sample complexity, remain largely open even in basic settings such as \emph{tabular} Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In this paper, we propose Off-Policy Double Variance Reduction (OPDVR), a new variance reduction based algorithm for offline RL. Our main result shows that OPDVR provably identifies an ϵ-optimal policy with O˜(H2/dmϵ2) episodes of offline data in the finite-horizon stationary transition setting, where H is the horizon length and dm is the minimal marginal state-action distribution induced by the behavior policy. This improves over the best known upper bound by a factor of H. Moreover, we establish an information-theoretic lower bound of Ω(H2/dmϵ2) which certifies that OPDVR is optimal up to logarithmic factors. Lastly, we show that OPDVR also achieves rate-optimal sample complexity under alternative settings such as the finite-horizon MDPs with non-stationary transitions and the infinite horizon MDPs with discounted rewards.more » « less
-
We study the \emph{offline reinforcement learning} (offline RL) problem, where the goal is to learn a reward-maximizing policy in an unknown \emph{Markov Decision Process} (MDP) using the data coming from a policy $\mu$. In particular, we consider the sample complexity problems of offline RL for the finite horizon MDPs. Prior works derive the information-theoretical lower bounds based on different data-coverage assumptions and their upper bounds are expressed by the covering coefficients which lack the explicit characterization of system quantities. In this work, we analyze the \emph{Adaptive Pessimistic Value Iteration} (APVI) algorithm and derive the suboptimality upper bound that nearly matches $ O\left(\sum_{h=1}^H\sum_{s_h,a_h}d^{\pi^\star}_h(s_h,a_h)\sqrt{\frac{\mathrm{Var}_{P_{s_h,a_h}}{(V^\star_{h+1}+r_h)}}{d^\mu_h(s_h,a_h)}}\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}}\right). $ We also prove an information-theoretical lower bound to show this quantity is required under the weak assumption that $d^\mu_h(s_h,a_h)>0$ if $d^{\pi^\star}_h(s_h,a_h)>0$. Here $\pi^\star$ is a optimal policy, $\mu$ is the behavior policy and $d(s_h,a_h)$ is the marginal state-action probability. We call this adaptive bound the \emph{intrinsic offline reinforcement learning bound} since it directly implies all the existing optimal results: minimax rate under uniform data-coverage assumption, horizon-free setting, single policy concentrability, and the tight problem-dependent results. Later, we extend the result to the \emph{assumption-free} regime (where we make no assumption on $ \mu$) and obtain the assumption-free intrinsic bound. Due to its generic form, we believe the intrinsic bound could help illuminate what makes a specific problem hard and reveal the fundamental challenges in offline RL.more » « less
-
Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning is notoriously difficult in long- and infinite-horizon settings due to diminishing overlap between behavior and target policies. In this paper, we study the role of Markovian and time-invariant structure in efficient OPE. We first derive the efficiency bounds and efficient influence functions for OPE when one assumes each of these structures. This precisely characterizes the curse of horizon: in time-variant processes, OPE is only feasible in the near-on-policy setting, where behavior and target policies are sufficiently similar. But, in time-invariant Markov decision processes, our bounds show that truly off-policy evaluation is feasible, even with only just one dependent trajectory, and provide the limits of how well we could hope to do. We develop a new estimator based on double reinforcement learning (DRL) that leverages this structure for OPE. Our DRL estimator simultaneously uses estimated stationary density ratios and q-functions and remains efficient when both are estimated at slow, nonparametric rates and remains consistent when either is estimated consistently. We investigate these properties and the performance benefits of leveraging the problem structure for more efficient OPE.more » « less
-
We present an algorithm based on posterior sampling (aka Thompson sampling) that achieves near-optimal worst-case regret bounds when the underlying Markov decision process (MDP) is communicating with a finite, although unknown, diameter. Our main result is a high probability regret upper bound of [Formula: see text] for any communicating MDP with S states, A actions, and diameter D. Here, regret compares the total reward achieved by the algorithm to the total expected reward of an optimal infinite-horizon undiscounted average reward policy in time horizon T. This result closely matches the known lower bound of [Formula: see text]. Our techniques involve proving some novel results about the anti-concentration of Dirichlet distribution, which may be of independent interest.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- The DOI is not currently available.
