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Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.
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Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models
Abstract. Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part ofthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the formof simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone icesheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project forCMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup forprocess-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-aloneGreenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. TheISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanicCMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertaintyin projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIPmodels, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions.We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework andimplementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to beused by participating ice sheet modeling groups.
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- PAR ID:
- 10191305
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Cryosphere
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1994-0424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2331 to 2368
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
