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Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves buttress the flow of the ice sheet but are vulnerable to increased basal melting from contact with a warming ocean and increased mass loss from calving due to changing flow patterns. Channels and similar features at the bases of ice shelves have been linked to enhanced basal melting and observed to intersect the grounding zone, where the greatest melt rates are often observed. The ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is especially vulnerable to basal melt and grounding zone retreat because the glacier has a retrograde bed leading to a deep trough below the grounded ice sheet. We use digital surface models from 2010–2022 to investigate the evolution of its ice-shelf channels, grounding zone position, and the interactions between them. We find that the highest sustained rates of grounding zone retreat (up to 0.7 km yr−1) are associated with high basal melt rates (up to ∼250 m yr−1) and are found where ice-shelf channels intersect the grounding zone, especially atop steep local retrograde slopes where subglacial channel discharge is expected. We find no areas with sustained grounding zone advance, although some secular retreat was distal from ice-shelf channels. Pinpointing other locations with similar risk factors could focus assessments of vulnerability to grounding zone retreat.
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A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections
Abstract. Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1744792
- PAR ID:
- 10206399
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Cryosphere
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1994-0424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3111 to 3134
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3111-2020
