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Background Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) and medical therapy are 2 available treatment options in dealing with severe emphysema, which is a chronic lung disease. However, or there are currently limited guidelines on the timing of LVRS for patients with different characteristics. Objective The objective of this study is to assess the timing of receiving LVRS in terms of patient outcomes, taking into consideration a patient’s characteristics. Methods A finite-horizon Markov decision process model for patients with severe emphysema was developed to determine the short-term (5 y) and long-term timing of emphysema treatment. Maximizing the expected life expectancy, expected quality-adjusted life-years, and total expected cost of each treatment option were applied as the objective functions of the model. To estimate parameters in the model, the data provided by the National Emphysema Treatment Trial were used. Results The results indicate that the treatment timing strategy for patients with upper-lobe predominant emphysema is to receive LVRS regardless of their specific characteristics. However, for patients with non–upper-lobe–predominant emphysema, the optimal strategy depends on the age, maximum workload level, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second level. Conclusion This study demonstrates the utilization of clinical trial data to gain insights into the timing of surgical treatment for patients with emphysema, considering patient age, observable health condition, and location of emphysema. Highlights Both short-term and long-term Markov decision process models were developed to assess the timing of receiving lung volume reduction surgery in patients with severe emphysema. How clinical trial data can be used to estimate the parameters and obtain short-term results from the Markov decision process model is demonstrated. The results provide insights into the timing of receiving lung volume reduction surgery as a function of a patient’s characteristics, including age, emphysema location, maximum workload, and forced expiratory volume in 1 second level.
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Mathematical models for the effect of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor on visual acuity
The standard of care treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration, delivered as ocular injection, is based on anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF). The course of treatment may need to be modified quickly for certain patients based on their response. Models that track both the concentration and the response to an anti-VEGF treatment are presented. The specific focus is to assess the existence of analytical solutions for the different types of models. Both an ODE-based model and a map-based model illustrate the dependence of the solution on various biological parameters and allow the measurement of patient-specific parameters from experimental data. A PDE-based model incorporates diffusive effects. The results are consistent with observed values, and could provide a framework for practitioners to understand the effect of the therapy on the progression of the disease in both responsive and non-responsive patients.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1916232
- PAR ID:
- 10197902
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of mathematical biology
- ISSN:
- 0303-6812
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-020-01544-4
