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1. The Effects of Background Zonal and Meridional Winds on ENSO in a Coupled GCM

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0822.1  

   Zhao, Bowen ; Fedorov, Alexey ( March 2020 , Journal of Climate)

   Changes in background zonal wind in the tropical Pacific are often invoked to explain changes in ENSO properties. However, the sensitivity of ENSO to mean zonal winds has been thoroughly explored only in intermediate coupled models (following Zebiak and Cane), not in coupled GCMs. The role of mean meridional winds has received even less attention. Accordingly, the goal of this study is to examine systematically the effects of both zonal (equatorial) and meridional (cross-equatorial) background winds on ENSO using targeted experiments with a comprehensive climate model (CESM). Changes in the mean winds are generated by imposing heat flux forcing in two confined regions at a sufficient distance north and south of the equator. We find that the strengthening of either wind component reduces ENSO amplitude, especially eastern Pacific SST variability, and inhibits meridional swings of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The effect of zonal winds is generally stronger than that of meridional winds. A stability analysis reveals that the strengthening of zonal and meridional winds weakens the ENSO key positive feedbacks, specifically the zonal advection and thermocline feedbacks, which explains these changes. Zonal wind enhancement also intensifies mean upwelling and hence dynamical damping, leading to a further weakening of Elmore »Niño events. Ultimately, this study argues that the zonal and, to a lesser extent, meridional wind strengthening of the past decades may have contributed to the observed shift of El Niño characteristics after the year 2000.

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2. Vertical Structure of the Upper–Indian Ocean Thermal Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0851.1  

   Li, Yuanlong ; Han, Weiqing ; Wang, Fan ; Zhang, Lei ; Duan, Jing ( September 2020 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Multi-time-scale variabilities of the Indian Ocean (IO) temperature over 0–700 m are revisited from the perspective of vertical structure. Analysis of historical data for 1955–2018 identifies two dominant types of vertical structures that account for respectively 70.5% and 21.2% of the total variance on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales with the linear trend and seasonal cycle removed. The leading type manifests as vertically coherent warming/cooling with the maximal amplitude at ~100 m and exhibits evident interdecadal variations. The second type shows a vertical dipole structure between the surface (0–60 m) and subsurface (60–400 m) layers and interannual-to-decadal fluctuations. Ocean model experiments were performed to gain insights into underlying processes. The vertically coherent, basinwide warming/cooling of the IO on an interdecadal time scale is caused by changes of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) controlled by Pacific climate and anomalous surface heat fluxes partly originating from external forcing. Enhanced changes in the subtropical southern IO arise from positive air–sea feedback among sea surface temperature, winds, turbulent heat flux, cloud cover, and shortwave radiation. Regarding dipole-type variability, the basinwide surface warming is induced by surface heat flux forcing, and the subsurface cooling occurs only in the eastern IO. The cooling in the southeast IO ismore »generated by the weakened ITF, whereas that in the northeast IO is caused by equatorial easterly winds through upwelling oceanic waves. Both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IO dipole (IOD) events are favorable for the generation of such vertical dipole anomalies.« less
3. 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0025.1  

   Battisti, David S. ; Vimont, Daniel J. ; Kirtman, Benjamin P. ( October 2019 , Meteorological Monographs)

   In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distributionmore »of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

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4. The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Bias in CESM1 and Its Influence on ENSO Forecasts

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0470.1  

   Wu, Xian ; Okumura, Yuko M. ; DiNezio, Pedro N. ; Yeager, Stephen G. ; Deser, Clara ( June 2022 , Journal of Climate)

   The mean-state bias and the associated forecast errors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated in a suite of 2-yr-lead retrospective forecasts conducted with the Community Earth System Model, version 1, for 1954–2015. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue in the forecasts is too strong and extends excessively westward due to a combination of the model’s inherent climatological bias, initialization imbalance, and errors in initial ocean data. The forecasts show a stronger cold tongue bias in the first year than that inherent to the model due to the imbalance between initial subsurface oceanic states and model dynamics. The cold tongue bias affects not only the pattern and amplitude but also the duration of ENSO in the forecasts by altering ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies related to ENSO extend to the far western equatorial Pacific during boreal summer when the cold tongue bias is strong, and the predicted ENSO anomalies are too weak in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The forecast errors of pattern and amplitude subsequently lead to errors in ENSO phase transition by affecting the amplitude of the negative thermocline feedback in the equatorial Pacific and tropical interbasin adjustments during the mature phase of ENSO. Thesemore »ENSO forecast errors further degrade the predictions of wintertime atmospheric teleconnections, land surface air temperature, and rainfall anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere. These mean-state and ENSO forecast biases are more pronounced in forecasts initialized in boreal spring–summer than other seasons due to the seasonal intensification of the Bjerknes feedback.

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5. Holocene hydroclimatic variability in the tropical Pacific explained by changing ENSO diversity

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34880-8  

   Karamperidou, Christina ; DiNezio, Pedro N. ( November 2022 , Nature Communications)

   Understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to past climate forcings is hindered by conflicting paleoclimate evidence. Records from the eastern Pacific show an intensification of ENSO variability from early to late Holocene, while records from the central Pacific show highly variable ENSO throughout the Holocene without an obvious relation to insolation forcing, which is the main climate driver during this interval. Here, we show via climate model simulations that conflicting Holocene records can be reconciled by considering changes in the relative frequency of the three preferred spatial patterns in which El Niño events occur (Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and Coastal) and in the strength of their hydroclimatic impacts. The relationship between ENSO diversity and variance is not only crucial for interpreting paleo-ENSO records and understanding ENSO response to external forcings but can also be used across climate model simulations to help evaluate the realism of ENSO projections in a changing climate.