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Abstract AimClimate‐induced pulse (e.g., hurricanes) and press (e.g., global warming) disturbances represent threats to populations, communities, and the ecosystem services that they provide. We leveraged three decades of annual data on tropical gastropods to quantify the effects of major hurricanes, associated secondary succession, and global warming on abundance, biodiversity, and species composition. LocationLuquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico. MethodsGastropod abundance, biodiversity, and composition were estimated annually for each of 27 years in a tropical montane forest that experienced three major hurricanes (Hugo, Georges, and Maria). Generalized linear mixed‐effects, linear mixed‐effects, and linear models evaluated population‐ and community‐level responses to year, ambient temperature, understorey temperature, hurricane, and time since hurricane. Variation partitioning determined the unique and shared variation in biotic responses associated with temperature, disturbance, and succession. ResultsRather than declining, gastropod abundances generally increased through time, whereas the responses of biodiversity were weak and scale dependent. Hurricanes and associated secondary succession, rather than ambient atmospheric temperature, moulded long‐term trends in abundances and biodiversity. Main conclusionsGlobal warming over the past 30 years has not progressed sufficiently to elicit significant responses by gastropods in the Luquillo Mountains. Rather, effects from pulse disturbances (i.e., hurricanes) and secondary succession currently drive long‐term variation in abundance and biodiversity. Gastropods evince high resilience in this tropical ecosystem. Historical exposure to recurrent hurricanes likely imbued the fauna with broad niches that make them resistant to current levels of global warming. We predict that biotic resiliency will be challenged once changes in temperature exceed interannual and inter‐habitat differences that typify this hurricane‐mediated system, or combine with an increased frequency of hurricanes and droughts to alter associations among environmental characteristics that define the fundamental niches of species. Only then might significant declines in abundance or the appearance of novel communities characterize the gastropod fauna in the Luquillo Mountains.
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Arthropods are not declining but are responsive to disturbance in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico
A number of recent studies have documented long-term declines in abundances of important arthropod groups, primarily in Europe and North America. These declines are generally attributed to habitat loss, but a recent study [B.C. Lister, A. Garcia,Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA115, E10397–E10406 (2018)] from the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) in Puerto Rico attributed declines to global warming. We analyze arthropod data from the LEF to evaluate long-term trends within the context of hurricane-induced disturbance, secondary succession, and temporal variation in temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that responses to hurricane-induced disturbance and ensuing succession were the primary factors that affected total canopy arthropod abundances on host trees, as well as walkingstick abundance on understory shrubs. Ambient and understory temperatures played secondary roles for particular arthropod species, but populations were just as likely to increase as they were to decrease in abundance with increasing temperature. The LEF is a hurricane-mediated system, with major hurricanes effecting changes in temperature that are larger than those induced thus far by global climate change. To persist, arthropods in the LEF must contend with the considerable variation in abiotic conditions associated with repeated, large-scale, and increasingly frequent pulse disturbances. Consequently, they are likely to be well-adapted to the effects of climate change, at least over the short term. Total abundance of canopy arthropods after Hurricane Maria has risen to levels comparable to the peak after Hurricane Hugo. Although the abundances of some taxa have declined over the 29-y period, others have increased, reflecting species turnover in response to disturbance and secondary succession.
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- PAR ID:
- 10209587
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 118
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. e2002556117
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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