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1. Residential electricity demand on CAISO Flex Alert days: a case study of voluntary emergency demand response programs

   https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ad0fda  

   Peplinski, McKenna ; Sanders, Kelly T ( December 2023 , Environmental Research: Energy)

   The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) utilizes a system-wide, voluntary demand response (DR) tool, called the Flex Alert program, designed to reduce energy usage during peak hours, particularly on hot summer afternoons when surges in electricity demand threaten to exceed available generation resources. However, the few analyses on the efficacy of CAISO Flex Alerts have produced inconsistent results and do not investigate how participation varies across sectors, regions, population demographics, or time. Evaluating the efficacy of DR tools is difficult as there is no ground truth in terms of what demand would have been in the absence of the DR event. Thus, we first define two metrics that to evaluate how responsive customers were to Flex Alerts, including theFlex Period Response, which estimates how much demand was shifted away from the Flex Alert period, and theRamping Response, which estimates changes in demand during the first hour of the Flex Alert period. We then analyze the hourly load response of the residential sector, based on ∼200 000 unique homes, on 17 Flex Alert days during the period spanning 2015–2020 across the Southern California Edison (SCE) utility’s territory and compare it to total SCE load. We find that the Flex Period Response varied across Flex Alert days for both the residential (−18% to +3%) and total SCE load (−7% to +4%) and is more dependent on but less correlated with temperature for the residential load than total SCE load. We also find that responsiveness varied across subpopulations (e.g. high-income, high-demand customers are more responsive) and census tracts, implying that some households have more load flexibility during Flex Alerts than others. The variability in customer engagement suggests that customer participation in this type of program is not reliable, particularly on extreme heat days, highlighting a shortcoming in unincentivized, voluntary DR programs.

    

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2. Baseline Estimation and Scheduling for Demand Response

   https://doi.org/10.1109/CDC.2018.8619236  

   Muthirayan, Deepan ; Kalathil, Dileep ; Poolla, Kameshwar ; Varaiya, Pravin ( December 2018 , 2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC))

   null (Ed.)

   Demand Response (DR) programs serve to reduce the demand for electricity at times when the supply is scarce and expensive. Consumers or agents with flexible consumption profiles are recruited by an aggregator who manages the DR program. These agents are paid for reducing their energy consumption from contractually established baselines. Baselines are counter-factual consumption estimates against which load reductions are measured. Baseline consumption and the true cost of load reduction are consumer specific parameters and are unknown to the aggregator. The key components of any DR program are: (a) establishing a baseline against which demand reduction is measured, (b) designing the payment scheme for agents who reduce their consumption from this baseline, and (c) the selection scheme. We propose a self-reported baseline mechanism (SRBM) for the DR program. We show that truthful reporting of baseline and marginal utility is both incentive compatible and individually rational for every consumer under SRBM. We also give a a pod-sorting algorithm based DR scheduling for selecting consumers that is nearly optimal in terms of expected cost of DR provision. 

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3. Tromino: Demand and DRF Aware Multi-Tenant Queue Manager for Apache Mesos Cluster

   https://doi.org/10.1109/UCC.2018.00015  

   Saha, Pankaj ; Beltre, Angel ; Govindaraju, Madhusudhan ( January 2019 , 2018 IEEE/ACM 11th International Conference on Utility and Cloud Computing (UCC))

   Apache Mesos, a two-level resource scheduler, provides resource sharing across multiple users in a multi-tenant clustered environment. Computational resources (i.e., CPU, memory, disk, etc.) are distributed according to the Dominant Resource Fairness (DRF) policy. Mesos frameworks (users) receive resources based on their current usage and are responsible for scheduling their tasks within the allocation. We have observed that multiple frameworks can cause fairness imbalance in a multi-user environment. For example, a greedy framework consuming more than its fair share of resources can deny resource fairness to others. The user with the least Dominant Share is considered first by the DRF module to get its resource allocation. However, the default DRF implementation, in Apache Mesos' Master allocation module, does not consider the overall resource demands of the tasks in the queue for each user/framework. This lack of awareness can lead to poor performance as users without any pending task may receive more resource offers, and users with a queue of pending tasks can starve due to their high dominant shares. In a multi-tenant environment, the characteristics of frameworks and workloads must be understood by cluster managers to be able to define fairness based on not only resource share but also resource demand and queue wait time. We have developed a policy driven queue manager, Tromino, for an Apache Mesos cluster where tasks for individual frameworks can be scheduled based on each framework's overall resource demands and current resource consumption. Dominant Share and demand awareness of Tromino and scheduling based on these attributes can reduce (1) the impact of unfairness due to a framework specific configuration, and (2) unfair waiting time due to higher resource demand in a pending task queue. In the best case, Tromino can significantly reduce the average waiting time of a framework by using the proposed Demand-DRF aware policy. 

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4. Mitigation Options to Reduce Peak Air Temperature and Air-Conditioning Demand in the Context of a Warming Climate for a Tropical Coastal City

   https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4051160  

   Pokhrel, Rabindra ; González-Cruz, Jorge E. ( May 2021 , ASME Journal of Engineering for Sustainable Buildings and Cities)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Air conditioning (AC) demand has recently grown to about 10% of total electricity globally, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the cooling requirement for buildings globally increases by three-fold by 2050 without additional policy interventions. The impacts of these increases for energy demand for human comfort are more pronounced in tropical coastal areas due to the high temperatures and humidity and their limited energy resources. One of those regions is the Caribbean, where building energy demands often exceed 50% of the total electricity, and this demand is projected to increase due to a warming climate. The interconnection between the built environment and the local environment introduces the challenge to find new approaches to explore future energy demand changes and the role of mitigation measures to curb the increasing demands for vulnerable tropical coastal cities due to climate change. This study presents mid-of-century and end-of-century cooling demand projections along with demand alleviation measures for the San Juan Metropolitan Area in the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico using a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Building Energy Model (BEM) forced by bias-corrected Community Earth Systems Model (CESM1) global simulations. The World Urban Database Access Portal Tool (WUDAPT) Land Class Zones (LCZs) bridge the gap required by BEM for their morphology and urban parameters. MODIS land covers land use is depicted for all-natural classes. The baseline historical period of 2008–2012 is compared with climate and energy projections in addition to energy mitigation options. Energy mitigation options explored include the integration of solar power in buildings, the use of white roofs, and high-efficiency heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The impact of climate change is simulated to increase minimum temperatures at the same rate as maximum temperatures. However, the maximum temperatures are projected to rise by 1–1.5 °C and 2 °C for mid- and end-of-century, respectively, increasing peak AC demand by 12.5% and 25%, correspondingly. However, the explored mitigation options surpass both increases in temperature and AC demand. The AC demand reduction potential with energy mitigation options for 2050 and 2100 decreases the need by 13% and 1.5% with the historical periods. Overall, the demand reduction potential varies with LCZs showing a high reduction potential for sparsely built (32%), and low for compact low rise (21%) for the mid-of-century period compared with the same period without mitigation options. 

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5. Response of Green Lake, Wisconsin, to Changes in Phosphorus Loading, With Special Emphasis on Near-Surface Total Phosphorus Concentrations and Metalimnetic Dissolved Oxygen Minima

   https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225003  

   Robertson, D.M. ( January 2022 , Scientific investigations report)

   Green Lake is the deepest natural inland lake in Wisconsin, with a maximum depth of about 72 meters. In the early 1900s, the lake was believed to have very good water quality (low nutrient concentrations and good water clarity) with low dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations occurring in only the deepest part of the lake. Because of increased phosphorus (P) inputs from anthropogenic activities in its watershed, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake have increased; these changes have led to increased algal production and low DO concentrations not only in the deepest areas but also in the middle of the water column (metalimnion). The U.S. Geological Survey has routinely monitored the lake since 2004 and its tributaries since 1988. Results from this monitoring led the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to list the lake as impaired because of low DO concentrations in the metalimnion, and they identified elevated TP concentrations as the cause of impairment. As part of this study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Green Lake Sanitary District, the lake and its tributaries were comprehensively sampled in 2017–18 to augment ongoing monitoring that would further describe the low DO concentrations in the lake (especially in the metalimnion). Empirical and process-driven water-quality models were then used to determine the causes of the low DO concentrations and the magnitudes of P-load reductions needed to improve the water quality of the lake enough to meet multiple water-quality goals, including the WDNR’s criteria for TP and DO. Data from previous studies showed that DO concentrations in the metalimnion decreased slightly as summer progressed in the early 1900s but, since the late 1970s, have typically dropped below 5 milligrams per liter (mg/L), which is the WDNR criterion for impairment. During 2014–18 (the baseline period for this study), the near-surface geometric mean TP concentration during June–September in the east side of the lake was 0.020 mg/L and in the west side was 0.016 mg/L (both were above the 0.015-mg/L WDNR criterion for the lake), and the metalimnetic DO minimum concentrations (MOMs) measured in August ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 mg/L. The degradation in water quality was assumed to have been caused by excessive P inputs to the lake; therefore, the TP inputs to the lake were estimated. The mean annual external P load during 2014–18 was estimated to be 8,980 kilograms per year (kg/yr), of which monitored and unmonitored tributary inputs contributed 84 percent, atmospheric inputs contributed 8 percent, waterfowl contributed 7 percent, and septic systems contributed 1 percent. During fall turnover, internal sediment recycling contributed an additional 7,040 kilograms that increased TP concentrations in shallow areas of the lake by about 0.020 mg/L. The elevated TP concentrations then persisted until the following spring. On an annual basis, however, there was a net deposition of P to the bottom sediments. Empirical models were used to describe how the near-surface water quality of Green Lake would be expected to respond to changes in external P loading. Predictions from the models showed a relatively linear response between P loading and TP and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in the lake, with the changes in TP and Chl-a concentrations being less on a percentage basis (50–60 percent for TP and 30–70 percent for Chl-a) than the changes in P loading. Mean summer water clarity, quantified by Secchi disk depths, had a greater response to decreases in P loading than to increases in P loading. Based on these relations, external P loading to the lake would need to be decreased from 8,980 kg/yr to about 5,460 kg/yr for the geometric mean June–September TP concentration in the east side of the lake, with higher TP concentrations than in the west side, to reach the WDNR criterion of 0.015 mg/L. This reduction of 3,520 kg/yr is equivalent to a 46-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external P sources (all external sources except for precipitation, atmospheric deposition, and waterfowl) from those measured during water years 2014–18. The total external P loading would need to decrease to 7,680 kg/yr (a 17-percent reduction in potentially controllable external P sources) for near-surface June–September TP concentrations in the west side of the lake to reach 0.015 mg/L. Total external P loading would need to decrease to 3,870–5,320 kg/yr for the lake to be classified as oligotrophic, with a near-surface June–September TP concentration of 0.012 mg/L. Results from the hydrodynamic water-quality model GLM–AED (General Lake Model coupled to the Aquatic Ecodynamics modeling library) indicated that MOMs are driven by external P loading and internal sediment recycling that lead to high TP concentrations during spring and early summer, which in turn lead to high phytoplankton production, high metabolism and respiration, and ultimately DO consumption in the upper, warmer areas of the metalimnion. GLM–AED results indicated that settling of organic material during summer might be slowed by the colder, denser, and more viscous water in the metalimnion and thus increase DO consumption. Based on empirical evidence from a comparison of MOMs with various meteorological, hydrologic, water quality, and in-lake physical factors, MOMs were lower during summers, when metalimnetic water temperatures were warmer, near-surface Chl-a and TP concentrations were higher, and Secchi depths were lower. GLM–AED results indicated that the external P load would need to be reduced to about 4,060 kg/yr, a 57-percent reduction from that measured in 2014–18, to eliminate the occurrence of MOMs less than 5 mg/L during more than 75 percent of the years (the target provided by the WDNR). Large reductions in external P loading are expected to have an immediate effect on the near-surface TP concentrations and metalimnetic DO concentrations in Green Lake; however, it may take several years for the full effects of the external-load reduction to be observed because internal sediment recycling is an important source of P for the following spring. 

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