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Title: Learning and Optimization with Bayesian Hybrid Models
Bayesian hybrid models fuse physics-based insights with machine learning constructs to correct for systematic bias. In this paper, we compare Bayesian hybrid models against physics-based glass-box and Gaussian process black-box surrogate models. We consider ballistic firing as an illustrative case study for a Bayesian decision-making workflow. First, Bayesian calibration is performed to estimate model parameters. We then use the posterior distribution from Bayesian analysis to compute optimal firing conditions to hit a target via a single-stage stochastic program. The case study demonstrates the ability of Bayesian hybrid models to overcome systematic bias from missing physics with fewer data than the pure machine learning approach. Ultimately, we argue Bayesian hybrid models are an emerging paradigm for data-informed decision-making under parametric and epistemic uncertainty.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1941596
PAR ID:
10212215
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
2020 American Control Conference (ACC)
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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