Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized weight-of-evidence and logistic regression methodstoestimateresourcefavorability,buttheseanalyses relied uponsomeexpert decisions.Whileexpert decisions can add confidence to aspects of the modeling process by ensuring only reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human bias into assessments. This bias presents a source of error that may affect the performance of the models and resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to reduce expert input through robust data-driven analyses and better-suited data science techniques, with the goals of saving time, reducing bias, and improving predictive ability. We present six favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States created using two strategies applied to three modern machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support- vector machines, and XGBoost). To provide a direct comparison to previous assessments, we use the same input data as the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conventional moderate- to high-temperature geothermal resource assessment. The six new favorability maps required far less expert decision-making, but broadly agree with the previous assessment. Despite the fact that the 2008 assessment results employed linear methods, the non-linear machine learning algorithms (i.e., support-vector machines and XGBoost) produced greater agreement with the previous assessment than the linear machine learning algorithm (i.e., logistic regression). It is not surprising that geothermal systems depend on non-linear combinations of features, and we postulate that the expert decisions during the 2008 assessment accounted for system non-linearities. Substantial challenges to applying machine learning algorithms to predict geothermal resource favorability include severe class imbalance (i.e., there are very few known geothermal systems compared to the large area considered), and while there are known geothermal systems (i.e., positive labels), all other sites have an unknown status (i.e., they are unlabeled), instead of receiving a negative label (i.e., the known/proven absence of a geothermal resource). We address both challenges through a custom undersampling strategy that can be used with any algorithm and then evaluated using F1 scores.
more »
« less
Trucks Don’t Mean Trump: Diagnosing Human Error in Image Analysis
Algorithms provide powerful tools for detecting and dissecting human bias and error. Here, we develop machine learning methods to to analyze how humans err in a particular high-stakes task: image interpretation. We leverage a unique dataset of 16,135,392 human predictions of whether a neighborhood voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2020 US election, based on a Google Street View image. We show that by training a machine learning estimator of the Bayes optimal decision for each image, we can provide an actionable decomposition of human error into bias, variance, and noise terms, and further identify specific features (like pickup trucks) which lead humans astray. Our methods can be applied to ensure that human-in-the-loop decision-making is accurate and fair and are also applicable to black-box algorithmic systems.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2142419
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10425457
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings on the 2022 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 799 to 813
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized weight-of-evidence and logistic regression methodstoestimateresourcefavorability,buttheseanalyses relied uponsomeexpert decisions.Whileexpert decisions can add confidence to aspects of the modeling process by ensuring only reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human bias into assessments. This bias presents a source of error that may affect the performance of the models and resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to reduce expert input through robust data-driven analyses and better-suited data science techniques, with the goals of saving time, reducing bias, and improving predictive ability. We present six favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States created using two strategies applied to three modern machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, support- vector machines, and XGBoost). To provide a direct comparison to previous assessments, we use the same input data as the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conventional moderate- to high-temperature geothermal resource assessment. The six new favorability maps required far less expert decision-making, but broadly agree with the previous assessment. Despite the fact that the 2008 assessment results employed linear methods, the non-linear machine learning algorithms (i.e., support-vector machines and XGBoost) produced greater agreement with the previous assessment than the linear machine learning algorithm (i.e., logistic regression). It is not surprising that geothermal systems depend on non-linear combinations of features, and we postulate that the expert decisions during the 2008 assessment accounted for system non-linearities. Substantial challenges to applying machine learning algorithms to predict geothermal resource favorability include severe class imbalance (i.e., there are very few known geothermal systems compared to the large area considered), and while there are known geothermal systems (i.e., positive labels), all other sites have an unknown status (i.e., they are unlabeled), instead of receiving a negative label (i.e., the known/proven absence of a geothermal resource). We address both challenges through a custom undersampling strategy that can be used with any algorithm and then evaluated using F1 scores.more » « less
-
The importance of incorporating ethics and legal compliance into machine-assisted decision-making is broadly recognized. Further, several lines of recent work have argued that critical opportunities for improving data quality and representativeness, controlling for bias, and allowing humans to oversee and impact computational processes are missed if we do not consider the lifecycle stages upstream from model training and deployment. Yet, very little has been done to date to provide system-level support to data scientists who wish to develop responsible machine learning methods. We aim to fill this gap and present FairPrep, a design and evaluation framework for fairness-enhancing interventions, which helps data scientists follow best practices in ML experimentation. We identify shortcomings in existing empirical studies for analyzing fairness-enhancing interventions and show how FairPrep can be used to measure their impact. Our results suggest that the high variability of the outcomes of fairness-enhancing interventions observed in previous studies is often an artifact of a lack of hyperparameter tuning, and that the choice of a data cleaning method can impact the effectiveness of fairness-enhancing interventionsmore » « less
-
Adam, N. ; Neuhold, E. ; Furuta, R. (Ed.)Metadata is a key data source for researchers seeking to apply machine learning (ML) to the vast collections of digitized biological specimens that can be found online. Unfortunately, the associated metadata is often sparse and, at times, erroneous. This paper extends previous research conducted with the Illinois Natural History Survey (INHS) collection (7244 specimen images) that uses computational approaches to analyze image quality, and then automatically generates 22 metadata properties representing the image quality and morphological features of the specimens. In the research reported here, we demonstrate the extension of our initial work to University of the Wisconsin Zoological Museum (UWZM) collection (4155 specimen images). Further, we enhance our computational methods in four ways: (1) augmenting the training set, (2) applying contrast enhancement, (3) upscaling small objects, and (4) refining our processing logic. Together these new methods improved our overall error rates from 4.6 to 1.1%. These enhancements also allowed us to compute an additional set of 17 image-based metadata properties. The new metadata properties provide supplemental features and information that may also be used to analyze and classify the fish specimens. Examples of these new features include convex area, eccentricity, perimeter, skew, etc. The newly refined process further outperforms humans in terms of time and labor cost, as well as accuracy, providing a novel solution for leveraging digitized specimens with ML. This research demonstrates the ability of computational methods to enhance the digital library services associated with the tens of thousands of digitized specimens stored in open-access repositories world-wide by generating accurate and valuable metadata for those repositories.more » « less
-
Improving the performance and explanations of ML algorithms is a priority for adoption by humans in the real world. In critical domains such as healthcare, such technology has significant potential to reduce the burden on humans and considerably reduce manual assessments by providing quality assistance at scale. In today’s data-driven world, artificial intelligence (AI) systems are still experiencing issues with bias, explainability, and human-like reasoning and interpretability. Causal AI is the technique that can reason and make human-like choices making it possible to go beyond narrow Machine learning-based techniques and can be integrated into human decision-making. It also offers intrinsic explainability, new domain adaptability, bias free predictions, and works with datasets of all sizes. In this tutorial of type lecture style, we detail how a richer representation of causality in AI systems using a knowledge graph (KG) based approach is needed for intervention and counterfactual reasoning (Figure 1), how do we get to model-based and domain explainability, how causal representations helps in web and health care.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3531146.3533145
