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1. Disentangling the North Pacific Meridional Mode from tropical Pacific variability

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00317-8  

   Richter, Ingo; Stuecker, Malte F.; Takahashi, Naoya; Schneider, Niklas (November 2022, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Abstract Variations of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical North Pacific have received considerable attention due to their potential role as a precursor of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific as well as their role in regional climate impacts. These subtropical SST variations, known as the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), are thought to be triggered by extratropical atmospheric forcing and amplified by air-sea coupling involving surface winds, evaporation, and SST. The PMM is often defined through a statistical technique called maximum covariance analysis (MCA) that identifies patterns of maximum covariability between SST and surface winds. Here we show that SST alone is sufficient to reproduce the MCA-based PMM index with near-perfect correlation. This dominance of the SST suggests that the MCA-based definition of the PMM may not be ideally suited for capturing two-way wind-SST interaction or, alternatively, that this interaction is relatively weak. We further show that the MCA-based PMM definition conflates intrinsic subtropical and remote ENSO variability, thereby undermining its interpretation as an ENSO precursor. Our findings indicate that, while air-sea coupling may be important for variability in the subtropical North Pacific, it cannot be reliably identified by the MCA-based definition of the PMM. This highlights the need for refined tools to diagnose variability in the subtropical North Pacific. 

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2. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulated marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during past decades

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00863-w  

   Ren, Xianglin; Liu, Wei; Capotondi, Antonietta; Amaya, Dillon J.; Holbrook, Neil J. (December 2023, Communications Earth & Environment)

   Abstract The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been suggested to play an important role in driving marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during recent decades. Here we combine observations and climate model simulations to show that marine heatwaves became longer, stronger and more frequent off the Northeast Pacific coast under a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation scenario, unlike what is found during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation scenario. This primarily results from the different mean-state sea surface temperatures between the two Pacific Decadal Oscillation phases. Compared to the cool (negative) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, warmer coastal sea surface temperatures occur during the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase due to reduced coastal cold upwelling and increased net downward surface heat flux. Model results show that, relative to the background anthropogenic global warming, the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the period 2013–2022 prolongs marine heatwaves duration by up to 43% and acts to increase marine heatwaves annual frequency by up to 32% off the Northeast Pacific coast. 

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3. PACIFIC

   https://doi.org/10.62056/ay11fhbmo  

   Griffy, Scott; Lysyanskaya, Anna (July 2024, IACR Communications in Cryptology)

   To be useful and widely accepted, automated contact tracing schemes (also called exposure notification) need to solve two seemingly contradictory problems at the same time: they need to protect the anonymity of honest users while also preventing malicious users from creating false alarms. In this paper, we provide, for the first time, an exposure notification construction that guarantees the same levels of privacy and integrity as existing schemes but with a fully malicious database (notably similar to Auerbach et al. CT-RSA 2021) without special restrictions on the adversary. We construct a new definition so that we can formally prove our construction secure. Our definition ensures the following integrity guarantees: no malicious user can cause exposure warnings in two locations at the same time and that any uploaded exposure notifications must be recent and not previously uploaded. Our construction is efficient, requiring only a single message to be broadcast at contact time no matter how many recipients are nearby. To notify contacts of potential infection, an infected user uploads data with size linear in the number of notifications, similar to other schemes. Linear upload complexity is not trivial with our assumptions and guarantees (a naive scheme would be quadratic). This linear complexity is achieved with a new primitive: zero knowledge subset proofs over commitments which is used by our no cloning proof protocol. We also introduce another new primitive: set commitments on equivalence classes, which makes each step of our construction more efficient. Both of these new primitives are of independent interest. 

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4. Equatorial Western–Central Pacific SST Responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation–ENSO Sequence

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0434.1  

   Hu, Suqiong; Zhang, Wenjun; Watanabe, Masahiro; Jiang, Feng; Jin, Fei-Fei; Chen, Han-Ching (June 2024, Journal of Climate)

   Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO. 

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5. Controls on the Cadmium-Phosphate Relationship in the Tropical South Pacific: Dissolved Cd in South Pacific

   https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005556  

   Roshan, Saeed; Wu, Jingfeng; DeVries, Timothy (October 2017, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)