Abstract Extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, with poorly understood implications for carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. A better understanding will critically depend on accurate and precise quantification of ecosystems responses to these events. Taking the 2019 US Midwest floods as a case study, we investigate current capabilities for tracking regional flux anomalies with “top‐down” inversion analyses that assimilate atmospheric CO2observations. For this analysis, we develop a regionally nested version of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System‐Flux system for North America (CMS‐Flux‐NA) that allows high resolution atmospheric transport (0.5° × 0.625°). Relative to a 2018 baseline, we find the 2019 US Midwest growing season net carbon uptake is reduced by 11–57 TgC (3%–16%, range across assimilated CO2data sets). These estimates are found to be consistent with independent “bottom‐up” estimates of carbon uptake based on vegetation remote sensing (15–78 TgC). We then investigate current limitations in tracking regional carbon budgets using “top‐down” methods. In a set of observing system simulation experiments, we show that the ability of atmospheric CO2inversions to capture regional carbon flux anomalies is still limited by observational coverage gaps for both in situ and satellite observations. Future space‐based missions that allow for daily observational coverage across North America would largely mitigate these observational gaps, allowing for improved top‐down estimates of ecosystem responses to extreme climate events.
more »
« less
The European carbon cycle response to heat and drought as seen from atmospheric CO 2 data for 1999–2018
In 2018, central and northern parts of Europe experienced heat and drought conditions over many months from spring to autumn, strongly affecting both natural ecosystems and crops. Besides their impact on nature and society, events like this can be used to study the impact of climate variations on the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is an important determinant of the future climate trajectory. Here, variations in the regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere were quantified from measurements of atmospheric CO 2 mole fractions. Over Europe, several observational records have been maintained since at least 1999, giving us the opportunity to assess the 2018 anomaly in the context of at least two decades of variations, including the strong climate anomaly in 2003. In addition to an atmospheric inversion with temporally explicitly estimated anomalies, we use an inversion based on empirical statistical relations between anomalies in the local NEE and anomalies in local climate conditions. For our analysis period 1999–2018, we find that higher-than-usual NEE in hot and dry summers may tend to arise in Central Europe from enhanced ecosystem respiration due to the elevated temperatures, and in Southern Europe from reduced photosynthesis due to the reduced water availability. Despite concerns in the literature, the level of agreement between regression-based NEE anomalies and temporally explicitly estimated anomalies indicates that the atmospheric CO 2 measurements from the relatively dense European station network do provide information about the year-to-year variations of Europe’s carbon sources and sinks, at least in summer. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale’.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1922922
- PAR ID:
- 10217580
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
- Volume:
- 375
- Issue:
- 1810
- ISSN:
- 0962-8436
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 20190506
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
La Niña climate anomalies have historically been associated with substantial reductions in the atmospheric CO2growth rate. However, the 2021 La Niña exhibited a unique near-neutral impact on the CO2growth rate. In this study, we investigate the underlying mechanisms by using an ensemble of net CO2fluxes constrained by CO2observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 in conjunction with estimates of gross primary production and fire carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals that the close-to-normal atmospheric CO2growth rate in 2021 was the result of the compensation between increased net carbon uptake over the tropics and reduced net carbon uptake over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Specifically, we identify that the extreme drought and warm anomalies in Europe and Asia reduced the net carbon uptake and offset 72% of the increased net carbon uptake over the tropics in 2021. This study contributes to our broader understanding of how regional processes can shape the trajectory of atmospheric CO2concentration under climate change.more » « less
-
Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using long‐term observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while α, CUP, β, and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in water‐limited ecosystems versus temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in water‐limited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems. The Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena (LPJ) model and the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Inter‐comparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface.more » « less
-
Abstract. Forests in Europe experienced record-breaking dry conditions during the summer of 2022. The direction in which various forest types respond to climate extremes during their growing season is contingent upon an array of internal and external factors. These factors include the extent and severity of the extreme conditions and the tree ecophysiological characteristics adapted to environmental cues, which exhibit significant regional variations. In this study, we aimed to (1) quantify the extent and severity of the extreme soil and atmospheric dryness in 2022 in comparison to the two most extreme years in the past (2003 and 2018), (2) quantify the response of different forest types to atmospheric and soil dryness in terms of canopy browning and photosynthesis, and (3) relate the functional characteristics of the forests to the emerging responses observed remotely at the canopy level. For this purpose, we used spatial meteorological datasets between 2000 and 2022 to identify conditions with extreme soil and atmospheric dryness. We used the near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv), derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the global OCO-2 solar-induced fluorescence (GOSIF) as an observational proxy for ecosystem gross productivity to quantify the response of forests at the canopy level. In summer 2022, southern regions of Europe experienced exceptionally pronounced atmospheric and soil dryness. These extreme conditions resulted in a 30 % more widespread decline in GOSIF across forests compared to the drought of 2018 and 60 % more widespread decline compared to the drought of 2003. Although the atmospheric and soil drought scores were more extensive and severe (indicated by a larger observed maximum z score) in 2018 compared to 2022, the negative impact on forests, as indicated by declined GOSIF, was significantly larger in 2022. Different forest types were affected to varying degrees by the extreme conditions in 2022. Deciduous broadleaf forests were the most negatively impacted due to the extent and severity of the drought within their distribution range. In contrast, areas dominated by evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) in northern Europe experienced a positive soil moisture (SM) anomaly and minimal negative vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in 2022. These conditions led to enhanced canopy greening and stronger solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) signals, benefiting from the warming. The higher degree of canopy damage in 2022, despite less extreme conditions, highlights the evident vulnerability of European forests to future droughts.more » « less
-
Romanowicz, Barbara (Ed.)Aerosol radiative forcing is an important but often poorly understood component of regional climate. While glacier ice contains the most detailed archives of past atmospheric aerosol composition and temperature, no well-preserved ice records extending into the last climatic transition have been reported for the historically important European region. Here, we use an Alpine ice core to document changes in European aerosols and climate from the end of the last glacial age (LGA) through the Holocene. The core was drilled on a glacier dome in the French Alps called the Dôme du Goûter (DDG), and it provides a stratigraphically intact record of aerosol and climate extending to at least 12 kyears (ky) before present. Although dating near the base of the glacier is not well constrained, the oldest DDG ice layers reflect glacial conditions in western Europe during the LGA. In addition to changes in atmospheric transport, increased sea-salt and dust deposition in western Europe recorded in the LGA ice suggest enhanced westerly winds and more active dust sources, possibly including North Africa. Deposition of terrestrial biogenic indicators during the cold LGA climate was lower, however, consistent with strongly reduced European vegetation. The DDG record of terrestrial biogenic emissions also suggests a decline of European forests throughout the Holocene, resulting from deterioration of climatic conditions and more recently from establishment of the first agricultural societies. The pronounced changes in atmospheric aerosol recorded in Alpine ice imply large variations in aerosol radiative forcing in western Europe during the last 12 ky.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

